저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 현재 미국 주식시장이 거품 상태이며 S&P500이 장기 추세선(약 2500 부근)으로 회귀하는 완만하거나 지속적인 하락 가능성을 경고한다. 쉴러 CAPE가 과거 대폭락 직전 수준이며, 시장의 단기 집중 문제와 과도한 유동성이 거품을 키운다고 본다. 비트코인은 변동성과 실사용 부족으로 투기적 자산이며 주식과 함께 동반 폭락할 위험이 있다고 평가한다. 원자재 변동성, 인플레이션, 경기침체 가능성도 언급하며 금·채권 등 안전자산 분산을 권한다. 다만 시점은 불확실하다고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech Bubble Burst is over Jeremy Grantham what's coming is worse than a recession in a world ruled by Rising prices and unpredictable stock market fluctuations there stands a courageous individual willing to share reality Jeremy Grantham the Visionary of Wall Street envisions a bleak future brace yourself for a story of economic hardship Market crisis and financial troubles however don't be alarmed as we shall examine grantham's predictions with cleverness and insight providing you with the tools to manage the impending financial disaster let's start with the factors that are contributing towards This Disaster number one the Market's attention deficit in his Stark warning of a looming economic disaster worse than a recession renowned investor Jeremy Grantham exposes a commonly overlooked culprit the Market's persistent inability to focus for extended periods he contends that this incessant pursuit of immediate profits and fleeting headlines drives volatility distorts how assets are valued and lays the groundwork for a distressing outcome Grantham vividly describes a market bombarded by an unending stream of news where every piece of information regardless of its substance competes for attention using bold fonts and flashy Graphics according to him this overload of information Fosters impulsive reactions and her behavior a pessimistic prediction from a single analyst magnified through social media Echo Chambers can incite Panic selling triggering a chain reaction leading to wider Market declines moreover Grantham criticizes the Market's fixation on short-term quarterly earnings a measure that prioritizes immediate satisfaction over long-term value he argues that this short-sightedness encourages speculative behavior and contributes to to the creation of unsustainable bubbles algorithms used in highfrequency trading worsen the situation by favoring quick profits over fundamental analysis resulting in Rapid fluctuations in asset prices that do not align with their true worth the emergence of social media and financial influencers has added another layer of instability platforms like Reddit and Twitter once valuable for discussion and research have now become breeding grounds for impulsive investment decisions f by hype and fomo fear of missing out granthum claims that these Echo Chambers amplify biases silence dissenting opinions and promote Collective investment behaviors that further skew Market valuations finally grm stresses the harmful consequences of continuous exposure to conflicting economic predictions he argues that this overload breeds anxiety and caution among investors hindering their ability to make prudent long-term choices ultimately he concludes that the Market's short attention span creates a perfect storm an unpredictable and speculative environment ripe for a significant correction two potential SNP 500 crash Jeremy Grantham offers a troubling perspective on a possible decline in the SNP 500 envisioning a gradual and persistent drop rather than a sudden plunge he attributes his potential scenario to a bubble inflated by excessive optimism and a skewed perception of risk Grantham identifies multiple factors contribut to his precarious situation to start he highlights concerns about overvaluation as a primary issue Grantham argues that the S&P 500 driven by Abundant quantitative easing and excessive positivity has surged far beyond its typical average price to earnings ratio this overvaluation in his opinion constructs a delicate framework vulnerable to even minor shifts in the market confidence additionally Grantham emphasizes the significance of the Schiller Cape ratio created by Economist Robert Schiller the reason Cape ought to work to predict the market is that earnings have always been constructed by accountants as some measure to indicate fundamental value of a company he points out the concerning elevation of the current Cape historically preceding significant Market crashes like the burst of the.com bubble looking Beyond traditional Investments Grantham observes the expansion of the everything bubble this surge spans various sectors inflating values in areas ranging from Real Estate to cryptocurrencies he argues that this widespread inflation increases the fragility of the financial system potentially magnifying the impact of synchronized Market correction Grantham also focuses on Market psychology warning against the Allure of continual growth that Fosters investor complacency he notes that periods of euphoria like the present one often lead to Sharp reversals As reality sets in resulting in panic-driven selling and substantial losses emphasizing the unpredictable nature of markets Grantham underscores the influence of policy uncertainty and unforeseen external events He suggests that geopolitical tensions or policy missteps could trigger the bubbles collapse swiftly eroding The Fragile confidence supporting the market I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always three the housing bubble in the mid 2000s there was the housing bubble fueled by a rise of subprime lending and inflated real estate prices when the the bubble inevitably burst it caused a chain reaction leading to widespread Financial instability during that time the SNP 500 went through a 60% decline hitting its lowest point in 2009 WEA history will repeat itself remains uncertain and can only be confirmed over time another significant factor contributing to a potential crash of the S&P 500 is a broader economic decline or a sudden shift in Market sentiment events like geopolitical iCal tensions or abrupt changes in monetary policy can significantly impact investor confidence triggering sell-offs in the market the collapse of layman brothers and subsequent failures of major financial institutions deeply shook the market the onset of the co9 pandemic in early 2020 further highlighted the vulnerability of the S&P 500 to external shocks being slightly generous as 2500 and most of the great bubbles the super bubbles go below low Trend and stay there for quite a while uh in the Greenspan era that tendency stopped in 2000 yes the NASDAQ came down 82% which was fairly brutal Amazon came down 92 but the Federal Reserve raced to the rescue so loudly and strongly that they stopped the decline in the S&P at trendline it only declined 50% 50% is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to Trend this time trend is at most 2500 the widespread concern about a global economic downturn and the uncertainty caused by the pandemic led to panicked selling resulting in a rapid drop of approximately 34% in just a few weeks four skepticism of Bitcoin Jeremy Grantham renowned for his bold forecast in the investment realm expresses doubt regarding the impending disaster brewing in finance Finance with Bitcoin positioned squarely within his concerns rather than viewing the cryptocurrency as a groundbreaking hedge against economic turbulence Grantham perceives it as a contributing element to a potential bubble poised for collapse grantham's skepticism arises from Bitcoin staggering price fluctuations he highlights its historical volatility citing instances like the surge in 2017 to nearly $20,000 followed by an 80% Decline and in 2021 to the $69,000 before plummeting according to him these drastic swings discredit Bitcoin as a reliable store of value and POS risks compared to Conventional assets adding to his reservations is bitcoin's limited practical utility despite aspirations for a decentralized financial future its everyday use as a currency remains minimal Grantham asserts that this lack of practical application questions its inherent value making its price vulnerable to speculation and hype a compelling visual aid reinforces grantham's argument by juxtaposing bitcoin's price with the Shiller Cape ratio a measure of stock market valuations a notable correlation emerges both trajectories rise in tandem indicating that Bitcoin surge is more linked to broader Market enthusiasm than intrinsic worth Grantham cautions that this Reliance heightens the risk of a synchronized crash at the current market bubble bursts moreover Grantham draws attention to bitcoin's environmental impact its energy intensive mining process consuming a comparable amount of electricity to the entire Netherlands raises ethical and sustainability concerns he argues that this Factor could further diminish public trust and potentially trigger a future sell-off despite his critical Viewpoint Grantham acknowledges the potential evolution of bitcoin's Technology he envisions a future where it Powers secure and efficient Financial systems however presently he regards it as a speculative asset entangled in the excitement of a potential market bubble gram advises caution and diversification when investing in such a climate he recommends spreading risk across various asset classes including safe havens like gold and bonds to navigate potential turbulence ultimately his skepticism towards Bitcoin serves as a reminder that while Innovation holds promise exercising sound judgment is crucial in navigating the op an uncertain terrain of Finance I only specialize in what I call the really great bubbles if you go back to 1929 to 2000 to Japan and and the housing the housing part of the housing bubble and you ask how did conditions look profit margins look great the forecast was great there was no chance of of a recession a few months ago smart people were saying there was a 20% chance of a recession in 3 years I mean it it's quite amazing and what happens after the bubbles break is there always a recession pretty quick people never get it people never forecast it and and along with the recession Comes A Drop in profit margin five volatility of Commodities Jeremy portrays a scenario where markets Teeter on the brink of disorder propelled by a combination of Highly volatile commodity prices Grantham emphasizes the historical tendency for commodity price to exhibit extreme fluctuations often surpassing the volatility witnessed in stocks and bonds for example a historical graph illustrating oil prices unveils significant Peaks and valleys in 2008 the price surged to over $140 per barrel only to plummet to under $40 within a span of 2 years Grantham argues that this unpredictability amplifies the repercussions of economic disruptions causing widespread disturbances across sector and potentially plunging markets into chaos adding to the complexity is the escalating demand for Commodities spurred by global population growth and Swift urbanization as Millions join the ranks of the middle class their consumption of resources such as food energy and metals skyrockets Grantham warns that this surge in demand strains Supply chains fostering opportunities for speculation and manipulation of prices he points to the recent food price crisis as a stark illustration triggered by droughts and geopolitical tensions the food and agriculture organization's food price index recorded an alarming 39.7% increase in 2022 this surge further fuels inflation significantly impacting the cost of living worldwide particularly in developing nations moreover Grandam underscores the interconnection among commodity markets a spike in oil prices for instance can Elevate Transportation costs leading to increased prices of other Commodities and contributing to broader inflation this ripple effect he cautions has the potential to escalate worsening economic downturns and sparking Financial crises six the impact of artificial intelligence on technology employing Ai and machine learning technology has significantly boosted Effectiveness and efficiency across diverse applications the rise in productivity may lead to decreased production expenses which could be advantages for businesses nevertheless there exists a potential for facing limitations on the supply side because of its heightened deficiency this implies that if the demand for goods or services exceeds the available Supply it might lead to inflation seven recessions and their impact in the storm clouds gathering over the economy Jeremy Grantham the investment Oracle sees more than just a passing Squall he sees the looming shadow of recession and unlike like fleeting showers recessions Grandam warns leave behind a trail of economic debris impacting businesses livelihoods and societal well-being statistics paint a stark picture since the Great Depression the US economy has endured 17 recessions averaging roughly one every 7 years while these numbers might seem abstract their real world effects are Stark job losses Skyrocket with an average unemployment rate rising to 7.5 % during recessions causing financial hardship and anxiety businesses shudder investment stalls and the Ripple effects impact everyone from struggling families to struggling Industries but recessions while painful are not necessarily permanent historically economies have always rebounded eventually erasing the losses and surpassing pre-recession levels this past Year's GDP growth of 5.9% for example marked a strong comeback from the pandemic induced contraction the question then becomes how can we navigate the turbulence of recession and soften its blow Grantham emphasizes the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of the economy preparing for downturns during periods of prosperity and prioritizing responsible financial planning building emergency funds diversifying Investments and avoiding excessive debt can all provide essential cushions when the economy hits a rough patch eight proactive steps to prepare for a recession Jeremy Grantham doesn't just depict a potential economic decline his portrayal acts as a Clarion call for Readiness understanding the inherent uncertainty and predicting an exact timeline Grantham emphasizes the need for proactive steps to soften the blow of a possible recession data from the previous economic downturns underscore the importance of Readiness for instance in the 2008 recession widespread unemployment surged to concerning levels peing at approximately 10% and impacting countless households research demonstrates a compelling link between personal savings and unemployment indicating that individuals with emergency funds encountered less stress and displayed greater resilience during the crisis this highlights the pivotal role of maintaining a financial safety net Grantham Advocates several core strategies to reinforce preparedness he recommends establishing an emergency fund equivalent to 3 to 6 months worth of living expenses to cover essential needs if faced with job loss or income disruptions additionally He suggests a comprehensive review of expenditures identifying potential areas for reductions or negotiations to allocate more funds towards savings diversifying Investments across different sectors and asset types is advised to mitigate risk exposure amid Market fluctuations furthermore reducing highin debt is underscored as a crucial measure to ease Financial Str drained during challenging times grm also stresses the significance of continual professional growth and networking to remain competitive in an evolving job market Beyond individual initiatives Grantham highlights the importance of responsible economic policies governments can play a crucial role by implementing measures like unemployment benefits and targeted tax relief to ease the burden on individuals and businesses infrastructure Investments can stimulate economic activity and create job opportunities while prudent fiscal policies are crucial for instilling confidence and ensuring long-term economic stability
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