저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2018년은 주식시장에 더 힘든 한 해가 될 것이며, 비트코인은 버블이라 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이라는 견해. [시장 전반 및 기술주] 현재 기술주와 성장주의 괴리가 크고 성장주가 가치주 대비 과도하게 늘어난 상태다. 나스닥이 2~4% 추가 하락하면 추세추종 투자자들이 이탈할 수 있다. [세제개편·실적] 상원을 통과 중인 법인세 인하는 매우 중요하며, 애널리스트 추정치에 이미 실적 10% 증가가 반영되어 있다. 2018년 말 세제 효과가 나타날 수 있다. [2018년 전망] 올해 큰 상승을 거쳤기 때문에 2018년은 시장 전체적으로 소화 과정이 필요한 더 힘든 해다. 대폭락은 아니지만 완만하고 힘든 흐름이 예상된다. 2018년 중간선거 등 정치적 요인이 시장을 짓누를 수 있으며, 법인세 인하 기대감으로 주가가 선반영되었다는 견해다. [1999년 비교] 1999년 기술 섹터 PER은 약 90 이상이었으나 현재 기술 섹터 PER은 약 20 수준이다. 현재 국채 금리(약 2.4% 수준 언급)와 TIPS 금리(약 0%) 환경도 1999~2000년과 다르므로, 시장 전체를 1999년과 비교하는 것은 잘못이라고 주장. [비트코인] 비트코인은 명백한 버블이며 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이라고 봄. 2017년 6~7천 달러 시점에도 버블이라 판단했고, 10~12천 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 언급했다. 추세 추종 및 FOMO(놓칠 공포) 심리가 전형적인 버블 양상이며 추수감사절 이후 10만 개 계좌 개설 등을 근거로 든다. 비트코인 자체는 실질 통화로서 말이 되지 않는다고 봄. [비트코인과 주식의 관계] 비트코인 열기는 주식에서 자금을 빼가고 있을 수 있으며, 이번 기술주 하락의 원인일 수 있다. 비트코인이 조정받더라도 주식시장에는 큰 악영향이 없을 것으로 봄. [출연자 본인 투자 성향] 비트코인을 사본 적이 없고 투기를 하지 않는 장기 투자자라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
professor jeremy siegel joins us live from Philadelphia to discuss the markets with us today professor it's good to see again happy to be here so I guess I could pose this first question one of two ways either what do you make of this rally that seems unabated or what do you make of this rollover in technology and whether you think it portends a greater message about how investors view where we are and the places that they should be well yeah I mean today the divergence is extremely had a similar divergence a couple weeks ago and I began to say is this going to be the start of something and no wow the growth snapped back and then continued its fight I do think the growth is extended relative to value now so you have a lot of trend followers I mean the ultimate trend following is is Bitcoin as we know but a lot of trend powers right now and you know if Nasdaq breaks down another two three four percent you know you'll have people jumping off that that train but the whole market I mean I think the tax cut you know making its way through the Senate is very very important earnings increase a 10% is in fact read in a lot of analysts estimates yet you know we still have some to go I think 2000 if we get it the tax cut I think that's great I think 2018 is still going to be a tougher year for the market as a whole with all the big gains that we had this year to digest do you think we're pulling some of it forward yeah and I think he's pulling some of that it forward yeah you know the the one of the great sayings of the market you buy an on the anticipation you sell on the news everyone says 8:00 we're gonna have this corporate tax cut the biggest one in history adding to the SP you don't want to sell stocks before that happens and that's true and I think that's driving the market upward and I do think the overall market people are coming I think people are totally wrong comparing it to 1999 Bitcoin yeah that's like you know pet calm but the rest of the market is not at all like 1999 and so you know you definitely have value there but it's gonna be built these corporate earnings boost is gonna be built in the market and we have to see it politically you know we have midterms elections in a year and you know the Republicans have to do their thing otherwise you know it could be unwound and I think those political realities might weigh on the market in 2018 again no big sell-off or anything but a harder slog going for so where Robert Kaplan the other day suggested and maybe it was his own irrational exuberance moment and some of the things that he said about where asset prices are commercial real estate etc and then Ken Griffin on our network as well from Citadel saying we're in the seventh inning that yes some assets are extended but it's not like they're they're completely outrageous and there is not that level of euphoria that that you would note at times of trouble where do you come down on that well one fundamental statistic I think it's really important in 1999 the price earnings ratio of the S&P technology sector which is the biggest sector today and the one that's had the biggest run was 99 zero and we're not talking about you know pet calm and all these internet stocks they weren't in the S&P pilant that a AOL was the only one that was in the S&P 500 and yet the p/e was 90 people were going to IBM because it was cheap at 40 times earnings we have a 20 PE on the tech sector today we also had a Treasury create a 7% six and a half to seven tips over for today we know we've been you know you were discussing well you know we're gonna get to three on Treasuries and tips are zero we're in a different world so except for Bitcoin well my favorite we're in a totally different world day so let me let me ask you that that's what I wanted $9.99 mm forgiven for Sukkot don't get confused on that issue there forgive me for stepping on your words there but that's where I wanted to end anyway is on is on Bitcoin um you don't think the fundamental underpinnings are there no and and you think do do you I don't what where's your mouth you do you think it's a bubble that's gonna end badly yes I definitely think it's a bubble that's gonna end badly you don't think we know about bubbles they left a lot more then we think possible you know I said a few I thought it was a bubble back on six seven thousand I said it's gonna break 10 11 12 maybe but it's that parabolic move we've seen so many times when you know the FOMO fear of missing out everyone at the Thanksgiving dinner table hey are you in Bitcoin and then we see a hundred thousand accounts open on the Friday after Thanksgiving come on I that's that's bubble mentality is is this though that the or at least a definitive moment that we will look back on when when trying to pick what was a potential top as it relates to stocks you know take Bitcoin out of the equation but the level of euphoria that definitely seems to exist in Bitcoin is is that at all representative of how we should view where stocks are now yeah no I think it's I think it's very very different in fact it could be drawing money away from stocks and maybe that's some one of the reason for the tech declined today hey well you know let me get let me go in the Bitcoin you know if you're in a in a train that's riding momentum you know that's maybe where I want to be if that goes down people say ok let me go back to stocks and look at where there is value so I don't even if Bitcoin you know cracks this week next week or whatever I don't think that that's gonna be bad for the stock market hmm I know you're an old school guy but you yeah sure no you were never tempted to buy Bitcoin no that's why I don't really speculate I'm a long-term investor but Bitcoin and I've been teaching monetary theory policy still makes no sense to me as a as a real currency all right well people are making a lot of money a professor thanks for coming on we'll talk to you soon thank you very much all right Jeremy Siegel down the Wharton School in Philly you for our company I think people are totally wrong comparing it to 1999 Bitcoin yeah that's like you know pet calm but the rest of the market is not at all like 1999 and so you know you definitely have value there but it's going to be built these corporate earnings boost is gonna be built in the market and when I have to see it politically you know we have midterms elections in a year and you know the Republicans have to do their thing otherwise you know it could be unwound and I think those political realities might weigh on the market in 2018 again no big sell-off or anything but a harder slog going for so where Robert Kaplan the other day suggested and maybe it was his own irrational exuberance moment and some of the things that he said about where asset prices are commercial real estate etc and then Ken Griffin on our network as well from Citadel saying we're in the seventh inning that yes some assets are X that train but the whole market I mean I think the tax cut you know making its way through the Senate is very very important earnings increase a 10 percent is in factored into a lot of analysts estimates yet you know we still have some to go I think 2000 if we get it the tax cut I think that's great I think 2018 is still gonna be a tougher year for the market as a whole with all the big gains that we had this year to digest do you think we're pulling some of it forward yeah and I think you pulling some of that it forward yeah you know the the one of the great sayings of the market you buy in on the anticipation you sell on the news everyone says eight we're gonna have this corporate tax cut the biggest one in history adding to the SP you don't want to sell stocks before that happens and that's true and I think that's driving the market upward and I do think the overall market P professor Jeremy Siegel joins us live from Philadelphia to discuss the markets with us today professor it's good to see again happy to be here so I guess I could pose this first question one of two ways either what do you make of this rally that seems unabated or what do you make of this role over in technology and whether you think it portends a greater message about how investors view where we are and the places that they should be well yeah I mean today the divergence is extremely had a similar divergence a couple weeks ago and I began to say is this going to be the start of something and no wow the growth snapped back and then continued its fight I do think the growth is extended relative to value now so you have a lot of trend followers I mean the ultimate trend following is is Bitcoin as we know but a lot of trend powers right now and you know if Nasdaq breaks down another 2 3 4 % you know you'll have people jumping off that standard but it's not like they're they're completely outrageous and there is not that level of euphoria that that you would note at times of trouble where do you come down on that well I mean one fundamental statistic I think it's really important in 1999 the price earnings ratio of the S&P technology sector which is the biggest sector today and the one that's had the biggest run was 99 zero and we're not talking about you know pet calm and all these internet stocks they weren't in the SN people I went back a AOL was the only one that was in the S&P 500 and yet the p/e was 90 people were going to IBM because it was cheap at 40 times earnings we have a 20 PE on the tech sector today we also had a Treasury grade at 7% six and a half to seven tips over for today we know we've been you know you do were discussing well you know we're gonna get to three on Treasuries and tips are zero we're in a different world so except for Bitcoin well my feeling we're in a totally different world day so let me let me ask you that that's what I wanted 1999-2000 forgiven for don't get confused on that issue there forgive me for stepping on your words there but that's where I wanted to end anyway is on is on Bitcoin um you don't think the fundamental underpinnings are there you know and and you think oh do you do you I don't what where's your mouth you do you think it's a bubble that's gonna end badly yes I definitely you don't think we know about bubbles they left a lot longer then we think possible you know I said a few I thought it was a bubble back on six seven thousand I said it's gonna break 10 11 12 maybe but it's that parabolic move we've seen so many times when you know the FOMO fear of missing out everyone at the Thanksgiving dinner table hey are you in Bitcoin and then we see a hundred thousand accounts open on the Friday after Thanksgiving come on I that's that's bubble mentality is is this
댓글 0