저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 경제 조정은 단기 충격이지만 장기적으로는 긍정적이며, 2016년 초 변동성은 주로 세계적 통화완화 한계와 중국발 파급 때문이라는 주장. 중국의 과제: 부채 구조조정, 경제 구조조정(국가 주도 신용에서 민간·자본시장 중심으로), 자본시장 효율화, 국제수지·위안화 압력(자본유출) 등 네 가지가 동시에 진행 중. 과거 미국도 1971년·1982년 부채위기, S&L 위기, 철강 등 제조업 구조조정을 거쳤으며, 중국의 현 상황도 이런 조정 과정의 일부로 해석. 지방정부 부채: 지방정부 지출은 GDP의 약 30%, 재정적자는 약 20% 수준이며, 이를 줄이면 GDP의 약 6%가 깎이는 셈. 다만 자금 공급을 끊으면 지출이 멈추므로 어려운 상황. 1998년 주룽지 때 경험 있는 관료들이 관리 중이며 구조조정은 잘 관리되고 있다고 평가. 그림자금융: 국영기업과 지방정부 중심의 은행대출 체계에서 그림자금융이 자본을 기업에 공급하고 있으며 위험하지만 성과도 있음. 주식시장 대응에는 문제가 있었으나 서구 대비 역량이 떨어지지 않으며, 지도부 역시 유능하고 헌신적이라고 평가. 경기 전망: 중국의 조정은 약 2~3년 지속될 것으로 보며, 원자재 가격과 브라질 등 신흥국에 부정적. 부채 수준은 아직 감내 가능하나 부채 증가율이 소득 증가율보다 빨라 지속 불가능. 가장 우려하는 것은 위안화 조정 가능성과 그에 따른 세계 디플레이션 압력. 세계 통화정책: 제로금리와 자산가격 상승으로 위험프리미엄이 낮아져 있어 취약하며, 중국은 이 상황에서 세계에 부정적 요인.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio is there something that the West misunderstands about Chinese markets and does that of course exacerbate volatility we saw over the last two weeks I think I think there's a lot that the Westerners understands about the Chinese markets but I think the essence of what's going on in China is an adjustment for major challenges they have a debt restructuring challenge they have an economic restructuring challenge so they have to come up with a new model for the economy they have a capital markets challenge to build the capital markets in an efficient way so that circulates capital through the system better and right now they have also a balance of payments challenge having to do with the pressure on the currency capital outflows and those types of things these are things that have happened repeatedly through the rest of the world the United States has had three major debt crisis as we couldn't pay our debts in 1971 we had in 1982 we had a debt crisis we had the S&L crisis we've reshaped our economy many times we used I remember when the steel industry ended in heavy manufacturing and we've gone into other areas we've had a number of balance of payments and currency issues so I think that maybe one of the things that is being misunderstood is what is a normal balance of payments economic too much debt restructuring kind of recession in Japan they used to define a recession as anything less than 3% growth maybe in China the described recession is less than 5% growth we're going through that I think it's being confused with the longer term picture in other words I think that the reforms that are going on in China and the leadership in China in terms of where it's moving is going to be very fundamentally good and so you're looking at something that is a short-term challenge as this thing from something of where we will be in five years after the regeneration of new capital markets and new economy with vibrant young entrepreneurs and that other economy that now beginning to flourish but but why have we had so much volatility since the start of the year well the volatility has been primarily as a result of in the world as a whole that we have an ease of easing a monetary policy all around the world and we're not going to have the same effectiveness in that easing of monetary policy because with interest rates at zero you can't cut interest rates and with asset prices having risen because of that quantitative easing there is risk the risk premiums have gone down and there's a big vulnerability so when China is dealing with the rest of the world China is a negative on the margin for the rest of the world and the world is vulnerable because of the lack of monetary policy while asset prices are comparatively high III think that the Chinese policymakers are not getting nearly as much credit as they deserved I have the benefit of seeing it from the outside so I'm not speaking from a Chinese perspective I think you have to get into the nitty-gritty of what they're going through so let's say a debt restructuring if you take a look at the debt restructuring that they're having to go through just to put that in perspective local government that local government spending accounts with about 30 percent of GDP it's running a deficit funding deficit of about 20 percent that means if you cut that funding deficit that's about 6 percent of GDP a hacking of 6% GDP if you look at the way that that has been restructured and managed it's been managed really superbly it's a very difficult situation because you're in a situation where if you just restructure and you don't provide those capital all of that spending that is taking place through there won't take place so and the same people who are doing that restructuring are the same people who did it in 98 with Zhu Rongji they're the same experienced people if you know the mechanisms the type of mechanisms literally to be using these things they're pursuing that if you look at the economic restructuring in other words they're going from one economy basically was like five banks lends the state-owned enterprises and lends to local governments okay the development of a shadow' lending system that's been done with a lot of balance because in other words it's a risky situation but the free exchange of capital in a certain way is getting capital to companies that never would have had access to capital before and that's not producing a volatility that's quite an accomplishment and if you look at ok the balance of payments the balance of payments is a very difficult situation it capital flows are what the capital flows are if you look at the how they're handling it I think in terms of the stock market handling it there have been problems and you know they're some of the responses have not been by world standards but there was also a big water imbalance in other words when the order hint and everybody wants to sell and then they have to respond quickly there was that sort of circumstances when I speak to those policymakers and I speak to those in the West I find equal levels of or even better sometimes equal levels of competence in terms of dealing with the things that they're dealing with I would say that if you compare also the politics of the government ah there is there are no loose cannons that are going to be running China I mean these are people if you look at the system of how it has to be chosen and how you get to learn you have to be a competent leader and devoted to the country if you look at the politics in the West and we look at some of the you know leadership there that could be quite scary so I I think this commitment I think the commitment to market reforms is a very real commitment to market reforms in other words and think of the power that that's going to have to liberalize that economy basically it's been an economy with the money clogged at the top top at 10% is where it's passing through this will circulate and there's a new China you could speak to that new China the new board and the Entrepreneurship so I think we're going through a cyclical you can't help but go over that cyclical adjustment and that will last probably maybe two or three years it comes at a bad time for the rest of the world because when you look at its impact on commodity prices and then not only just commodity prices the other economies of Brazil and so on and you look at the vulnerability of the rest of the world in terms of monetary policy that's a bad combination but we'll get past this I think in terms of China a bad year in China is going to be a great year in almost any other country as was as we said the leverage levels are not intolerably high the problem is the debt is still growing at a rate that's significantly faster than income that's an unsustainable circumstance it's also an understandable circumstance because changing that rate abruptly will have a negative effect on the economy I think the the issue of instability is more of a balance of payments currency issue that that becomes one that I'm more concerned about that might require more you know more of an adjustment in the currency and that that because adjustment in the currency would have an effect on the rest of the world which would also transmit deflationary pressures to the rest of the world because those exchange rates would essentially appreciate and that has an effect at a time when there is a weakness in the rest of the world we have to look at the impact that China has on the rest of the world and the rest of the world has on China and the fact that there is not much of an effectiveness and monetary policy those two things combined create for a risky situation
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