저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 경기 둔화(하드 랜딩)를 예상하지만 2008~09년 같은 급락은 아니며, 금리·M2·수익률곡선 신호를 근거로 인플레이션 완화와 조기 금리 전환 가능성을 언급한다. [경기·물가] 기업들이 가격을 과도하게 올렸고 이제 인하가 필요하다고 봄. 필수소비재는 마진 방어를 위해 8~12% 가격을 올렸으나 소비자가 저가 브랜드로 이동하며 악순환이 될 것이라 진단. 소비자 디플레이션이 아직 CPI에 반영되지 않았다는 시각. [연준·금리] 잭슨홀에서 파월이 '제약적(restrictive)' 표현을 쓴 점에 주목. 실질금리가 중립금리를 크게 웃돈다는 인식이 오히려 빠른 피벗 가능성을 시사한다고 해석. M2는 전년 대비 약 4% 감소(8개월 연속 감소, 1930년대 이후 처음). 수익률곡선은 약 70bp 역전 상태로 둔화 신호. [경기침체 판단] 2022년 상반기 GDP two 연속 마이너스로 사실상 롤링 리세션이 약 1년 진행. NBER 공식 판정은 수년 뒤에야 가능하다고 언급. [정책·재정] 10월 정부 셧다운 우려는 선거 연도 특성상 협상으로 9월 30일 무렵 타결될 것이라 전망. IRA(인플레이션감축법)에 따른 10개 약값 인하는 대형제약사 주가에 오히려 호재였다고 설명. 약가 추가 인하는 선거 이후로 예상. 재정적자 확대와 채권시장의 우려 제기. [달러·지정학] 국제준비통화 중 달러·유로 외 통화 비중 상승 주장(러시아 측 인용). 중국 위안화가 달러를 대체하기는 어렵다는 분석. 시프(Peter Schiff)는 달러 붕괴 시 인플레와 금리 급등을 경고. [가상자산] 비트코인은 SEC의 현물 ETF 결정 지연으로 가격이 하락했으나 기관 관심은 지속된다고 봄. 장기적으로 회복 기대, 단기 어려움은 존재. 그레이스케일 이더리움 보유 등 관련 뉴스 언급. 비트코인과 AI의 융합 가능성에 큰 관심 표명. [출연자 전망] 경기는 경착륙 가능성이 주류 전망보다 높다고 보나 과거 위기만큼은 아님. 인플레이션과 금리는 하락 방향으로 봄.
다듬은 글
yep we probably went too far even Domino said it uh probably went to too far we need to readjust pricing so many people do not believe we will see deflation in the CPI we do now I don't know exactly when it will happen but we're hearing a lot of companies saying yep we went too far the consumer staples companies were increasing prices 8 to 10 to 12 percent as they were trying to keep their margins in place as units declined but I think that is turning into a vicious cycle and they too will have to cut prices to bring consumers back from the more generic brands we're really excited about some of the breakthroughs in uh in the regulatory landscape when it comes to crypto and equally decided more excited about the research that is taking us to places that others are not yet exploring like this convergence between uh Bitcoin and artificial intelligence I was I was blown away by the possibilities bitcoin price dips amid ETF delays bitcoin's price took a hit as the SEC delayed decisions on several spot Bitcoin ETF applications erasing gains from the recent grayscale court Victory the crypto Market is in flux investor sentiment waivers High liquidations of long positions and declining trading volumes have affected bitcoin's price and investor sentiment fear has replaced neutrality in the market but institutional interest in Bitcoin persists regulatory impact looms the sec's continued delays on bitcoin ETF approvals and macroeconomic factors like interest rate policies are impacting bitcoin's Price Market players are looking to the long-term recover free of Bitcoin cryptos resilient audience despite short-term challenges the crypto Market expects resilience as financial institutions increasingly Embrace Bitcoin now let's continue our enlightening discussion with Kathy what do we have to look forward to well now the topic is potential government shutdown if there's no agreement on on the budget and just like with the debt ceiling I this is going to work out we're moving into an election year and no one wants to be seen as disrupting the government and bringing that kind of attention during an election year so there'll be a lot of saber rattling but uh we'll probably will probably land at something in and around uh September 30th um and then uh this week we got some clarification on the IRA the so-called inflation reduction act which we do not believe that's the reason inflation's going down but nonetheless um we knew that the um that this Administration was going to Target a drug drug prices and we got the 10 drugs um they're associated with large Pharma companies and it was interesting the the stocks actually went up because most of these drugs if not all of them are scheduled to go off patent in the not too distant future and so their prices were going to come down anyway so while the uh well the uh Administration said that the price declines would be somewhere between 20 and 60 for these drugs and a lot of them are uh for for um the the highest spending categories that uh Medicare uh is trying to control um heart disease especially um most of the prices when they go generic uh will drop by 80 percent that's what usually happens now there will be more more drug price Cuts but they're not going to happen until well after the election so we don't have to worry about it right now and if the administration um were to change there may be new legislation uh uh countering this legislation um one of the things we are focused on though in terms of fiscal policy is if we're right that the economy is going to have a harder Landing than most uh most economists and strategists expect um what will this Administration do to counteract uh the bad news uh during an election year and uh I think the the bond market has uh is already a bit on the war path when it comes to uh fiscal spending it uh the words out of control seem to be bandied about uh constantly in the press and uh I can't imagine there's going to be another layer of don't forget to join us as we explore the unfolding events dollar share in reserves drops below 60 percent U.N Rises Russian Diplomat says the share of currencies other than the US dollar and the euro in international reserves is on the rise according to a Russian representative the trend is being observed as a growing number of countries try to use their National currencies in foreign trade Settlements a global macro strategist has explained that the Chinese one is unlikely to replace the U.S dollar as the global Reserve currency she emphasized that the weaponization of the USD is one of the top reasons why Russia China and other brics nations have been seeking an alternative to the dollar Economist Peter Schiff has warned that bidenomics will soon be exposed for the fraud that it is as inflation and unemployment heat up while the economy cools down he cautioned if Americans think the economy is bad now just wait until they see what's coming once the dollar cracks both inflation and interest rates will rise sharply this will send the economy deeper into recession causing many people to lose their jobs that's the real bynomics monetary policy a very interesting from Jackson Hole so the Jackson Hole Summit is where the monetary authorities get together and the most interesting word I heard out of it was Powell's use of the word restrictive and and saying that the real interest rate rate was well above the neutral rate and that defines restrictive so half of the solution is understanding the problem if the economy weakens as much as we think it's going to the FED were is now getting into the mindset within the use of that word and we might see a pivot faster than might ordinarily be the case after all M2 is down roughly four percent it has been down on a year-over-year basis for eight months and it actually peaked one year ago and as we've said many times this has not happened since the 1930s uh the yield curve is still inverted roughly 70 basis points and that's a harbinger of uh slower than expected or lower than expected inflation or both and we think uh both will be the answer there and the yield curve has been inverted for a year now now many people are probably sick and tired of this talk about any Landing you know they're hearing soft landing hard Landing uh and most are thinking at soft Landing now we are thinking harder Landing but how hard it's probably not as certainly not going to be anything like 0809 uh why because we've been in a rolling recession uh for about a year as you'll recall in the first half of 2022 GDP was negative for two consecutive quarters technically that's the definition of a recession but we don't know when the nber the National Bureau of economic research is how they're going to characterize this and we won't know for one two three years I think after the fact Arkham intelligence reveals grayscale's ethereum Holdings across 500 addresses crypto thefts in 2023 nearly dollar one billion lost to scams and exploits reports surtic Cambridge revises Bitcoin mining index lowers btc's estimated power use World coin claims sign ups soar in Argentina 9.
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