저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 중국 주식시장은 정치 리스크로 당분간 매력이 낮고, 인도 성장 잠재력이 더 크다고 본다. 중국 투자 평가 중국 지수와 알리바바 등 주요 종목이 바이든-시진핑 회담 기대에도 거의 움직이지 않았다. 대만 문제, 남중국해, 중국発 펜타놀 선적 문제 등 양국 간 부정적 쟁점이 많다. 인민해방군 내부 숙청과 로켓군 인사 변화 등으로 군 상황도 불안하다. 간접 투자 전략 중국에 직접 투자하기보다 대만을 통한 간접 노출이 낫다고 본다. 대만과 중국 간 교역이 많아 대만 투자와 중국 비중이 높은 기업을 함께 강세로 본다. 경제 및 기술 전망 중국 경제 전반은 부진하지만 정부가 반도체 등 기술 산업에 자원을 집중해 해당 섹터는 주목된다. 대만 침공 가능성 전면 침공보다는 평화적 흡수 시도가 더 가능성이 높다고 본다. 교역 상호의존 때문에 봉쇄도 양측에 불리해 실현 가능성이 낮다고 본다. 인도 투자 전망 최근 5개 도시를 방문해 인도의 성장 기대와 잠재력을 체감했다고 한다. 인프라(도로·철도) 투자가 활발하고 경제성장률도 세계 최고 수준이다. 주식시장은 호조였고 일부 기간에는 미국 시장과 비슷하거나 더 좋은 성과를 냈다. 인포시스, ICICI 등 대형주도 언급했으나 중형주의 성장 잠재력을 더 선호한다. 출연자 관점 요약 단기 중국 직접투자는 회피, 대만 간접투자 및 기술 섹터 주목, 인도 중형주 선호.
다듬은 글
despite the highly anticipated meeting between Biden and she my next guest says the equity Market in China doesn't look good right now due to Rising political risk and instead of investing there he's finding better opportunities elsewhere joining me now is Mark Mobius president of Mobius investment Consulting Mark it's good to have you here so not not much enthusiasm you still think there's a lot of political risk yeah and you can see that in the index if you look at the China index it hasn't moved uh look at 10 cent Alibaba any of these stocks have not moved at all in anticipation of something happening something good happening of the meeting there's so many issues between the two countries it's not only uh Taiwan it's a South China Sea it's a pentanol that's being shipped from China it's so many issues that are negative so I don't see much happening and of course the US is very concerned about having the militaries communicate with each other but as you know there's a lot of strife now taking place within the military in China Xi Jinping has made a number of very critical changes in the rocket forces so putting this all together uh it does not look very good U and what I think is the way to get into China if you want to be in China is through Taiwan oddly enough even though you may fear there's going to be some kind of a invasion of Taiwan because Taiwan and China uh shipping between each other lots of goods and services and if you go into Taiwan you can then get into China in an indirect way but in other words you'd be bullish both on Taiwanese Investments and also those which maybe most of them that are heavily geared towards China so it's not that you're bearish on China's economy it's just you're a little concerned about investing directly there exactly uh of course the economy is not doing very well in China but uh the government is putting an incredible amount of effort to upgrade the technology particularly the semiconductor technology and that's the reason why they need Taiwan because as you know Taiwan is the center of high-end uh semiconductor production in the world so that's where the emphasis will be of course the general economy in China is not doing very well but the tech sector will be a big Focus for the government and a lot of resources will go into that sector does the Chinese Reliance on Taiwan make an invasion or take over there at some point more or less likely for you than it seems to be for a lot of analysts I think less likely uh what China wants is a a peaceful takeover so that they can take advantage of all the technology that you have in Taiwan so I just don't see a hot War taking place now of course accidents can happen but I just don't see that happening in the near future at least even a blockade even a blockade because there's so much trade going on between Taiwan and China it wouldn't make sense for either of them to have a blockade of some sort interesting the place that I kind of tease that you're quite bullish on is India and it's a country that with each passing year people seem to have higher and higher hopes and expectations for can it meet those I think so I'm talking to you today from Bangalore I've been to five cities in India in the last two weeks and uh you can feel the incredible excitement and incredible potential for growth here infrastructure needs a lot of work and they're building roads railroads they're doing a lot of upgrading in the country and of course the economic growth rate is very high one of the highest in the world so there's still great opportunities of course the stock market has done very well and has performed as well as the US market as a matter of fact in some cases I'll perform the US Market but uh you can see incredible potential here and if as you know companies like infosis IC and others but we particularly like the uh medium-sized companies because the potential growth in those companies is very good
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