저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라는 자동차 생산 둔화, 공급망 차질, 수요 파괴 및 경기침체 리스크에도 불구하고 가격 인상력과 자율주행 기술 우위로 성장 여력이 크다고 주장. 2025년 EPS 약 22달러, 적정가 2,200달러(100배 PER 가정)를 제시하며 bull/bear 시나리오를 분석. 발표자는 주가 하락 시 추가 매수 의향을 밝힘. 다만 마진 하락, 경쟁 심화, 규제 리스크를 하방 요인으로 언급.
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should you buy tesla stock a company with over one hundred thousand employees a three gigafactories for vehicles battery plant a solar plant a research plant and an over one trillion dollar evaluation with a fourth gigafactory for vehicles opening in texas next week in austin by the way that opening i will be attending and i'll also be at teslacon texas the next day but more on them later in this video we're going to review whether or not it actually still makes sense to invest in tesla today though what my plan for tesla is and some insight in terms of what you should be considering if you're thinking of buying tesla stock so let's start with exactly those considerations and then get into my financial models for tesla the first consideration you have to think about when it comes to tesla is the fact that we are in an environment of glow slowing global vehicle production and when you compare tesla to other companies slowing growth is the last thing we want to hear about because tesla does have a relatively substantial valuation consider this toyota has a price to earnings ratio of under 10.
at the same time the institute for highway safety is projecting a three percent decline in vehicle production because of the war between russia and ukraine that works out to about 2.5 million fewer units of total global vehicle production bringing us down to about 81.6 million vehicles this year and with tesla you're paying a lot for a growth story but tesla is growing see toyota for example might not be valued as well because they're not growing as much as tesla or anywhere near close to tesla in fact toyota is pausing production due to a lack of parts with substantial supply chain issues toyota usually produces around eight and a half to nine million vehicles per year but has been falling behind due to these issues and in december toyota reported that its worldwide sales were actually down seven percent and its sales have been shrinking for four consecutive months they also outlined plans that in q1 and q2 of 2022 their expectations are for even fewer deliveries now scaling back vehicle production another 12 on top of the already seven percent decline that we've seen at the same time tesla is still growing so maybe it's not fair to compare companies solely on p e ratio after all in 2023 wall street expects about 11 percent growth as a supply chain issues a bait for toyota but then wall street only expects growth of 4.3 percent in 2024 6 growth in 2025 1.8 percent growth in 2026.
this works out to an average of roughly three to four percent average annual growth for a company like toyota whereas wall street is right now pricing in 25 average growth every single year for the next five years for tesla now bullish tesla investors expect this revenue growth to actually be closer to 45 to 50 percent but this is one of the reasons you see a massive disparity between tesla's valuation compared to legacy automakers the fact that you have substantial growth now of course maybe that's already priced in though after all tesla does have a p e today of 219 and based on wall street's growth expectations of that average 25 growth will maybe collapse that pe to around 53 in 2025 but that's still 10 times that of toyota so to invest in tesla you really have to believe that not only is tesla going to meet that wall street estimate of 25 growth you actually have to believe that wall street is substantially undervaluing tesla's expected growth and that tesla might actually grow in excess of twice what wall street is presently expecting and that could be a reason for investing in tesla even at higher pes compared to companies that are much later in their growth curves remember folks growth curves generally symbolized by an s-curve on a chart are all about slow growth when we begin substantial growth once we actually ramp production and then a slowing cycle this is why we call an s curve because it looks like the shape of an s based on wall street's projections toyota is up here at the relatively flat end of the s-curve now some say hey don't worry maybe legacy automakers can actually create a new s-curve within the upper you know these these upper regions the problem is a lot of the legacy automakers already have the problem of the law of large numbers if you're already producing seven to eight million vehicles how much are you really growing if you're just producing let's say one million evs now and you're now not producing one million say gas camrys or ice vehicles right so is that even really growth this is one of probably the motivators for ford actually splitting their company into two an electric division and an ice division or internal combustion engine division tesla of course is expected to be much closer to this section of the growth curve that is even if we end up delivering just over a million vehicles maybe even up to 1.2 1.3 1.4 million vehicles here in 2022 despite all these supply chain issues tesla has goals and ambitions of delivering over 10 million vehicles per year which obviously at that point tesla would be much more up here in the growth curve and usually the earlier we are in startup companies we tend to have exorbitant p e ratios in fact over here in the startup section you can oftentimes have a terrible drawing of the infinity symbol here there you go you can often have an infinite pe ratio as a company's losing money and then of course you go into profitability but you're selling for multiple sometimes as much as a thousand or 200 times earnings or a hundred times earnings and eventually once that growth curve starts curving that's when you see these multiple valuations compress and you go to sort of like an apple level multiple or maybe you're selling for 30 or 40 times as that growth curve comes down so things to consider is evaluation and growth when you're thinking about tesla especially relative to some of the legacy automakers the second thing that you do have to keep in mind is we do have covet issues potentially slowing down production in tesla shanghai or in the tesla shanghai gigafactory now there's really nothing we can do about this but we do know that for every day of a shutdown we have in shanghai we lose about 2018 vehicles per day so just five days of a shutdown and we could end up delivering 290 000 vehicles instead of 300 000 vehicles in a quarter now we're gonna get tesla delivery estimates soon and those really aren't that big of a deal in this video because for me this is more of a 2025 valuation video than it is to speculate on the current deliveries expect tesla will do just fine but hey you know what you'll see at the end of this video but between you and me i wouldn't mind if they missed deliveries we'll talk about that more the next thing that you really have to consider beyond covet because eventually unless of course we get another covet variant hovid will go away the third thing that you have to consider has to do with supply chains obviously war is wrecking supply chains wire harnesses are stuck in ukraine stalling production in europe nickel used in batteries and neon used in semiconductors were stuck in massive supply disruptions because of a lot of this production coming from ukraine which is now obviously in a state of war and shipping costs have gone through the roof as shippers prioritize just shipping around war areas and taking massive premiums for this while at the same time you've got massive backlogs at ports and of course very expensive freight premiums so you put a lot of pressure here on delivering and transporting vehicles and parts which puts pressure on vehicle margins however tesla has a couple advantages here first they've actually they have many advantages here the first biggie here is tesla's move which is really a first mover advantage here into really trying to mass produce those lithium iron phosphate batteries this is something that byd in china does as well these are cheaper and more resistant to thermal overload they avoid the issues of trying to source nickel from from ukraine that of course being for the nickel cobalt aluminum style chemistry for batteries which these are oftentimes used in higher performance vehicles they could run at higher voltages but a lot of tesla vehicles are just fine with lithium iron phosphate batteries and because now we can avoid the shortages of nickel by using a different battery chemistry maybe tesla won't be too impacted here with the exception of maybe their more high performance vehicles like the tesla model x plaid or the tesla model s plaid but those deliveries tend to be a small percentage of tesla's overall revenues anyway now tesla opening a berlin factory does mean that shipping from china that is from shanghai to europe is now minimized and that potentially could actually increase margins as we reduce freight fees now of course anytime you ramp factories margins generally are low to start with and then margins substantially improve so we're going to go through a volatile period of trying to get gigatexas and giga berlin online and there could be some margin misses at tesla in the short term but in the long term i expect all these issues to smooth out and after all another big advantage tesla has is they're a master of supply chain management very much like apple is now ultimately who pays for the increase in costs in general like commodity costs well right now folks that's you with a consumer margins really seem to be insulated for elon musk and tesla because we continue to see price increases for example the chinese model y just had its first price hike for a base model y in china up two thousand seven hundred seventy two dollars or just under five percent and this follows two other price hikes on chinese models and numerous price hikes on american models basically tesla is saying hey look we're dealing with a lot of inflation costs are going up and we're going to pass those costs on directly to the customer which in the case of tesla the customer is more than willing to pay that is tesla has pricing power which is actually a huge advantage during an inflationary period of time this is unlike the lack of pricing power that macy's and coca-cola have see macy's is struggling raising the prices of mattresses coca-cola is having trouble raising prices even though their input costs are going up because the consumers are finding alternates because the prices are going up too much as soon as the consumer says no that means the company has to start absorbing the hit and stock earnings go down so the big risk then comes down to demand destruction how much inflation can we bear how much can we actually increase prices without destroying demand now we're going to talk about demand destruction we'll also talk about recessionary concerns but first we've got to bring in our sponsor for an important message now i know some of you like to trade but quite frankly we don't really get to trade like the quants on wall street because they're hiring computer scientists and they got all these crazy algos but what if i told you that without needing to be a wizard in excel or knowing how to code or having expensive terminals and coding technology what if i told you there was a company called composer that gave you the financial firepower to build no code trading algorithms yourself for example do you want to say buy tesla if ford drops 10 over five trading is short ethereum if bitcoin hits fifty thousand dollars 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lead times lead times are really actually in my opinion a great opportunity to see whether or not we're experiencing demand destruction now the lead times for tesla vehicles could potentially be a supply like a supply chain issue right if there are supply chain issues then lead times extend in fact legacy automakers are having so many issues with supply chains that the lead times are so long for certain vehicles that they're even cancelling orders on customers because they just can't deliver but as long as tesla's deliveries continue to grow and wait times continue to grow then we have a sign that tesla is managing supply chain issues while at the same time demand is actually increasing despite higher prices so lead times on tesla vehicles are really critical to look at and what i've done is i've put together a list of the current lead times as of here at the time of the filming this march 31st for tesla vehicles in america and you can see here that the bare minimum amount of time that you're going to wait for a tesla is two months so if you want to buy a tesla today unless you buy it used or out of some form of existing inventory that somebody canceled and you got lucky you're going to have to wait at least two months for a tesla and that would be a tesla model s plaid if you wanted the model y performance edition which is one of my favorite vehicles you'll probably wait somewhere between two to three months if you want to model x you could be waiting anywhere from four to 12 months though most teslas like the model threes and the model s's have a weight of about three to four months if we start seeing these wait times collapse and we get all of these vehicles down to take delivery in as little as one to two weeks that could potentially be a red flag that we're starting to see demand destruction especially as tesla is scaling to more factories we want to see these lead times up so that way tesla can produce more factories to try to deliver the demand that is there and proves that tesla can go from delivering 500 000 vehicles a year to a million vehicles a year to 2 billion vehicles a year and hopefully beyond while still maintaining high demand that's the key and for in order for tesla to ever get to delivering 10 million vehicles a year we cannot see demand fall off a cliff once we pass say 2 million vehicles a year that would be a big long-term problem for tesla so obviously the risks here big if tesla misses growth well this stock could absolutely collapse so paying attention to lead times and what the consumer is doing is absolutely critical so far though tesla seems to be killing it now we do also have to consider a fourth thing and that is recessionary risks and then circling back to consumers again because what is a recession but a reduction in consumers buying stuff that is what a recession is a reduction in overall gdp for a country gross domestic product which is the sum of services and products and spending so some believe that a recession has become inevitable and now others say that honestly they'd rather invest whether a recession comes or not for the long term into great companies and build their positions during price drops and specifically are targeting investments into companies that could weather a recession that is weathering a recession would mean not going bankrupt and deal with inflationary pressures and we've already talked about how tesla deals with inflationary pressure as well so the question is can tesla weather a recession so the big bottom line of that would be probably they can weather a recession but how much stalling or how much of a delay would we put into that tesla growth story as people potentially cancel their purchases for vehicles i don't know would we see lead times go to zero potentially for teslas because during a recession maybe individuals would be less inclined to purchase new cars unless of course this ends up being if we do have a recession a recession of the poor that is inflation reduces the spending power of poorer individuals who potentially aren't buying teslas anyway whereas middle to upper middle class and of course upper-class individuals continue to buy tesla's because they can and the recession and inflation and pressures aren't really affecting them as much tbd the average investor or rather i should say the average purchaser of a tesla vehicle now is somewhere between 25 and 45 years old tends to be male and tends to be of middle and middle and upper class of course upper class as well so clearly tesla could be an opportunity for a flight to safety during a recession but that only goes as far as valuations actually stay up if we see compression in multiples which you generally see across the entire stock market a recession won't be good for stocks but in the long run tesla's very likely to weather any kind of recession the big question though is will consumers come back to tesla and this is where you kind of don't want to look at the media if you want to be a tesla bull because what you'll get are slams from consumer reports about tesla's autopilot being trick-able or their preference for fords over teslas you'll see that motor trends awarded the lucid electric vehicle the car of the year award over tesla's and many complain about potential quality issues with teslas like panel gaps and teslas though there really has been a lot of improvement in this area time magazine also just named one of the 100 most influential companies and actually left elon musk and tesla out of that biden has a hard time mentioning tesla and many elon musk you know watchers or people who pay attention to elon musk say he's just too erratic of a leader to actually scale tesla to the levels it needs to scale to and of course others say tesla has no chance of being a good investment because there's just too much competition and too much other choice after all tesla only has the model s the model 3 the model x and the model y now the cyber truck will come out probably in 2024 but it's not great when you've got four models and 70 new ev models are going to be launched by others just this year in fact ram jeep chrysler fiat dodge alfa romeo maserati alone these companies alone expect to have 75 ev models by 2030 and that doesn't even include gm toyota daimler volkswagen bmw neo xping and lucid altogether likely adding another 100 to 200 ev models that's a big risk for tesla what if tesla ends up being a niche product a recession happens and then there's a cool new car on the block that 25 to 45 year old dudes bring their attention to and they prefer that over tesla and tesla ends up being a fad well in that event tesla stock will crash absolutely horribly what tesla really needs to do is figure out how can it attract more ladies and more of the older generation so we can really get to that toyota-style adoption of 9 to 10 million vehicles a year that's really what we want to see long term for tesla if not even more now a fifth thing that you have to consider when it comes to tesla is legal risks there's the potential that tesla's going to get slapped with another 260 to 280 million sec fine that could definitely hit the stock a bit it's gonna rob about two percent of ebitda uh if courts ultimately determined that elon musk violated his agreement to have his his tweets on twitter reviewed before posting them or the potential that tesla's water rights are restricted in berlin limiting their potential of expanding their facility or potential legal risks related to full self-driving you have a lot of risk here which brings up risk number six tech risk what if full self-driving isn't achieved at full levels as envisioned now or potentially priced in now by tesla what if nvidia can partner with lucid and deliver a better product what if apple can deliver a better product what if gm and cruz can deliver a better product so far tesla has the most millions of miles driven with using any form of self-driving technology because humans that is consumers can actually contribute to the development of full self-driving by using the self-driving technology in tesla's other vehicle companies aren't taking advantage of this data or they're using only their own hired and internal drivers this is a big downside risk for those companies and a big upside a moat for tesla so unless somebody's able to come out of the secret and show some incredible self-driving technology tesla seems to be substantially in the lead here now you do have that risk that elon's too reliant on this non-lidar technology bob brett winton over at arc research actually says this is a good thing because you don't need to over kill the technology in the tesla the less parts you have the lower vehicles can be priced the more vehicles you can sell and the higher margins can be at tesla remember elon musk is obsessed with margins and strives for a 30 gross margin which is revenue minus vehicle costs that's your gross margin he's trying to bring 30 to gross margin and he does this by trying to minimize parts in fact his famous saying is the best part is no part but of course this has created frustrations for some consumers and remember everything ultimately comes back to the consumer so for example on the new yolk steering wheel there is no sensor for the horn under the airbag in the middle of the wheel now you can put your palm on the right side of the yoke but this is unintuitive and usually in an emergency this could be quite dangerous if somebody in an emergency actually needed to honk to try to avoid an emergency because they'd likely react to the level of their intuition rather than their level of expectation right in an emergency as they say you generally fall to the level of your training you don't rise to the level of your expectation however since posting my video elon musk has on twitter stated that it's my review video on my tesla model s plaid elon musk has come out and say and has stated that hey we are now going to add a sensor under the steering wheel airbag so that way you can honk by pushing the middle of the yoke and the reason i bring this up here is not so much that it really matters that the sensor is under the horn or not it's just that at some point consumers might revolt someone like elon musk regularly wanting to strip features or sensors or things that elon musk might deem are not necessary but what if consumers want those features and then leave tesla that's a risk and that's a risk that we've got to pay attention to consumers for think about it elon musk so far has really standardized the entire interior lineup of all the vehicles of the s the three the x and the y the interior looks almost exactly the same minus the fact that one has an additional screen above the wheel and the smaller models do not but you also get some pretty cool features that you just don't have in other cars like horns that could play music romance mode uh powerful infotainment system and of course seat coolers which i know other cars have that but i have to say because i love it it's kind of cool i like that in my test a lot less now all of this of course extends to production as well elon musk's obsession with minimizing parts and using massive giga presses for example that consolidates sometimes 150 parts and do a single rear casting for a vehicle reducing the need for dozens of robots and coming up with their own alloys to be able to use this kind of technology without their castings crumpling after their their molding well now you have to see these things create not only a huge moat for tesla and their ability to expand but the value here really comes when elon musk and tesla start copy and pasting this kind of model to gigafactories around the world tesla is aiming for potentially as many as 10 terra factories making millions of vehicles annually with these cost-saving strategies and then delivering vehicles not just in every continent but then locally within as many countries as possible but of course again all of the scaling only matters if consumers are willing to buy so again watch what the consumers are doing watch what's happening with lead times and deliveries it's probably the most important aspect of tesla's stock valuation it is growth so to sell cars like toyota does you need everyone wanting tesla's not just young dudes then of course there's the potential that tesla fails to scale some other aspects of their business like solar but this could probably be a smaller revenue aspect and really i don't assign a lot of value to scaling the solar business there's probably more of a risk that tesla fails to scale their batteries and their battery business because batteries obviously are the input for vehicles electric vehicles and the home battery growth division which is very important because home batteries sell for a very high margin it's a very high margin business and you want to be in high margin businesses cars with high margin batteries with high margin inverters which tesla now does in-house with high margin are critical now right now we also have hopium that we're going to get the cyber truck the semi-truck maybe a tesla robot but hype is not something that i like to value into companies so for me i'm going to set a lot of these hopes to zero and i'm going to call those a margin of safety now with all of this said all these risks and concerns to consider it's important to say that what you're about to see is not a guarantee it's my version and my expectation of what i believe tesla's returns might look like for the coming four to five years now i like to be very very conservative with my estimates because i do not want to invest in a stock expecting perfection i want to expect and price in that some things are just not going to work out the way you think but first a message from teslacon texas now we have a quick message from someone very special who's doing amazing things for the tesla community and has to do with a big ol party the day after the cyber rodeo coming up matthew tell us about this big event coming up in austin texas hey kevin so the tesla owners club of austin is throwing a multi-day fan gathering called teslacon texas and it's culminating on april 8th with our main event and we're gonna have a ton of tesla youtubers speaking and that's gonna be super fun that's right in fact myself galley from hyperchange ross gerber will all be there on the 8th super excited where can people go to learn more about this big event coming up yeah jump over to teslacontext.com so we only have a few tickets left it's about 85 sold out so we want you to get involved and all profits are going to an amazing charity that supports the homeless community here in austin it's called the community first village look at that tesla gathering ross galley kevin maybe some tesla shots who knows come meet fellow tesla bulls come to the event and check it out i want to be very clear as well this is not sponsored i am going to the event for free but i'm not paid to pitch this event i just want to support the tesla community anything else that people need to know matthew kevin we have you slotted in to speak about your tesla evaluation at our event and then moderate a panel of the balls versus the hyper bowls because we're all balls but some of us are even more in the ludicrous mode than others so we want you to moderate that it's going to be a blast i thank you so much for the opportunity i can't wait until april 8th okay folks here is my bull case for tesla 2025 with a revenue per vehicle uh now increased to about 45 000 per vehicle by 2025.
everything in pink is going to be something that i've changed since i've last done one of these valuation updates uh with a revenue per vehicle about 45 000 per vehicle i expect that tesla maintaining that thirty percent margin will be able to bring somewhere around uh 32 million dollars down to profit if we take out in my opinion a conservative 22 percent tax rate then we should end up with a net income of around 25 billion dollars sorry if i said millionaire billion uh and with currently shares outstanding around 1.135 billion that would bring us to earnings per share of about 22.
now i did lower our operating expenses from 15 to 14 and i did maintain actually the expense margin at 70 even though companies like barclays are actually a little bit more bearish here barclays is projecting that there is a risk to tesla's margin the tesla's margin may actually fall in the coming years here in 2022 being at about 27.1 percent without vehicle credits that margin could actually fall in 23 4 and 5 to 26.3 24.7 and 22.6 this would be disastrous for the stock honestly we don't even have to go into the bull case and say oh let's lower this we'll take a look at that for our 2025 bear case but this is where tesla will absolutely collapse if this margin starts falling so that is very very dangerous now there's a likelihood that shares outstanding will increase by the time 2025 rolls around especially since we've got the stock dividend coming up which is a version of a tesla stock split that does nothing though for fundamental analysis so we're not really going to spend the time to talk about that in this video you'd watch my other video on the tesla stock dividend split but anyway if we take a price today of tesla let's say 1050 this would put our forward earnings price to earnings ratio at about 47.79 and if we're delivering about 4.8 million vehicles and we're still expecting that high consumer adoption for teslas kind of like going back to this s-curve chart over here my expectation is tesla should be able to maintain a forward p e of roughly 100 until we get to the upper part of this curve where growth really starts slowing which i wouldn't expect to start seeing until 9 10 or 11 million vehicles being delivered again assuming those consumers stay very very strong and in that sort of example using a 100 pe by 2025 we would arrive at about a valuation of tesla stock at around two thousand two hundred dollars which would represent a double in about four years if you invested today at eleven hundred dollars you'd be looking at a return of about 19 i'm sorry 18.97 over four years now if you're able to buy tesla at one thousand dollars and this case scenario ends up coming true you can see your return goes up substantially i recently bought uh into tesla at about a twenty percent 20 to 25 discount from when i sold my tesla stock i have all my tesla shares back and they actually have plenty more shares of other stocks even now because i was able to get a nice discount on the stock recently and i got back into tesla probably an average about 750 dollars in this case my return actually now exceeds a 30 percent if this uh scenario ends up coming true which is really wonderful uh for basically if you don't know if you're not from around here you're not familiar what i did is i sold my tesla shares at roughly an average of 9.65 to 970 because i sold over a few a few different periods of time and then i re-bought those again with an average of about 750.
now i know some folks say oh but what about tax implications but don't worry i've already considered all of that and the strategies that i pulled off are going to be absolutely phenomenal to make sure i minimize my tax liability uh for that sort of move but again this video isn't about me it's about our projections here so if i jump on over to a bear case scenario the bear case scenario i'm actually going to keep the vehicle price a little bit higher at 48 000 but what we're going to do is we're going to drop the number of vehicles substantially here we're only going to get 3.3 out this is going to be a little bit problematic in addition to dropping margin to kind of what barclays is looking at something like 25 which would be quite bad uh for tesla and uh we'll see here that with a 22 tax rate using the same formula we'd only be at eps of about 10.67 by 2025 which means at the end of 2025 we might only be at 1067 which seems remarkable and bad because that would mean if you bought 1100 you'd actually be negative if you bought at 750 you'd still have a 9.21 return but if you bought at anything around a thousand dollars you'd really only be returning about one point six four percent this is of course a base a bear case scenario so we got a bull scenario bear scenario and then we could do a 20 30 bowl scenario now this is sort of just a ramp chart that i've got written down here and this is really expecting that we could get somewhere to 16 million vehicles this is this would be very remarkable i i don't i don't know if tesla can drive this sort of consumer demand but let's say we can in the longer run we go to about 45 000 average per vehicle uh including any kind of full self-driving revenue in this sheet i do end up including about 20 percent of revenue coming from energy services or vehicle revenue coming from energy and this is because i expect a lot more adoption of batteries or or we'll see revenue from insurance here and we'll see a lot of other ways that tesla might be able to make money uh and so we'll throw some of these in here and some what we think are reasonable expense margins if we come to the bottom over here we could potentially in 2030 with a now p e ratio of only about 45 see tesla stock sitting around 3 292 dollars which is still remarkable because if you bought today at a thousand bucks let's say you would be expecting a return of about 16 per year for eight years which is really actually quite incredible so uh but i i honestly don't like going out to 2030 because it's just so blurry we actually don't know what the take rate on services or energy or insurance or whatever will end up being how semis will play out in that so i'd rather be somewhere here between the bear and the bull case scenario and at least for me personally buying it at 750 is such a beautiful steel that if if really if i could just buy tesla again uh for for any price i'd probably want to be adding to tesla under 900 dollars because if i could go under 900 i'm still getting about a 4.35 return on the base case scenario if i can get it under 900 and we end up achieving a bull case scenario i'm sitting somewhere around a 25 return over for each year over four years which is incredible so those are my thoughts on tesla and check out the conference coming up i'll be there see you bye
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