저자: Deinid · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 피터 린치의 5가지 주식 전략을 소개하고, 그중 턴어라운드 전략을 폭스바겐 사례로 설명한다. 주제 1 - 전체 투자 절차: 전략에 맞는 종목 발굴 → 미래 시나리오(스토리) 분석 → 펀더멘털 분석 순서로 진행한다고 설명. 주제 2 - 턴어라운드 전략: 일시적 위기로 과도하게 하락한 기업에 투자. 조건은 근거 없는 극단적 하락과 위기가 일시적이라는 확신 두 가지. 주제 3 - 폭스바겐 사례: 배출가스 스캔들로 우선주가 약 170유로에서 약 93유로로 하락. 시나리오는 영구적 타격 vs 2015~2016년 손실 후 정상화 두 가지이며, 후자가 더 가능성 높다고 봄. 주제 4 - 폭스바겐 펀더멘털: 자기자본비율 25%, 현금 약 400억 유로로 파산 가능성 극히 낮다고 평가. DCF(순이익 기준, WACC 할인율, 2023년 120억 유로 회복, 터미널 가치 80억 유로)로 주당 내재가치 176유로 산출. 주제 5 - 현재 상황: 스캔들 약 8개월 후 주가 약 120유로, 영상 기준 잠재 상승여력 약 45%. 다만 매수 추천이 아니라 직접 검토하라고 명시. 주제 6 - 나머지 4가지 전략: 경기순환주(경기 침체기 매수, 호황기 매도, 경기 예측 오류가 리스크), 성장주(최고 수익 가능하나 최고 위험, 자금조달·성장성 점검 필요, 아마존·페이스북은 고평가 우려), 전환기(부분 누락), 가치주/블루칩(배당 목적, 가장 낮은 위험, IBM·애플·네슬레·코카콜라 등 예시). 주제 7 - 마무리: 영상 자체는 린치 저서 학습 내용을 정리한 것이며 구독·댓글을 요청.
다듬은 글
In his book, Peter Lych describes five stock strategies that can help you make a lot of money. Before we delve into the individual strategies, let's briefly look at the general investment process. First, you need to find an investment idea in the form of a stock that fits one of the five stock strategies.
I already explained how to do this in the first video. After you've found a suitable stock and decided on a strategy, you need to examine the possible future scenarios, i.e., the story, and then conduct a fundamental analysis based on that. I will explain the individual steps of the story and fundamental analysis using concrete examples with the respective stock strategies.
Now let's look at the first stock strategy. The first strategy is investing in turnaround stocks. Here, you invest in shares of companies that are currently in a crisis situation. Either the company has suddenly incurred heavy losses or it is involved in a major scandal. Consequently, the share price has fallen sharply.
Very often, the price reactions to these crises and scandals are too extreme. Furthermore, it is usually foreseeable that the company will recover quickly from this crisis and the business will return to its pre- crisis level. As things continue, the share price will recover from the extreme price drops, and you can make a lot of money with these price recoveries.
Let's say the price of a share falls from €20 to €10 due to a scandal, i.e., by 50%. If you are now certain that the crisis is only temporary and will not affect the company's operations, then you can achieve a 100% return with this stock if the share price rises back to €20. You should invest in a turnaround stock if the following two criteria are met: firstly, there must be a fundamentally unfounded and extreme price drop, and secondly, you must be certain that the crisis or scandal is only temporary and will not affect future operations.
If these two criteria are met, then you have the opportunity to achieve a very high return. Peter Lych, for example, made a lot of money with Chrysler stock in this way. However, I will now give you a current example: Volkswagen stock, where the turnaround has already partially taken place, meaning the share price has already partially recovered.
Due to the emissions scandal, the Volkswagen share price plummeted. The price of the preferred shares fell in a short time from approximately €170 to approximately €93. At that time, It is not yet entirely clear whether this scandal will have a lasting impact on Volkswagen's operations. Looking at possible future scenarios, the following two scenarios would have emerged: firstly, no one buys cars from the Volkswagen Group anymore, and the scandal has a lasting negative impact on operations; or secondly, Volkswagen will incur losses in 2015 and possibly 2016 due to provisions and recalls, and then operations will continue as usual.
In the first scenario, the share price would continue to fall sustainably, while in the second scenario, the share price would recover quickly. Since the Volkswagen Group earns most of its money with brands such as Audi, Porsche, Skoda, and Scania, the emissions scandal will not have a major and lasting impact on the overall group's revenue, as the scandal is only associated with the Volkswagen brand.
Furthermore, other car manufacturers have recovered quickly from much worse scandals, such as brake failures, where people demonstrably died as a result. Therefore, it can be assumed that the second scenario is more likely and that the Volkswagen share price will recover quickly. Fundamental analysis of turnaround stocks should begin with an assessment of the company's insolvency risk.
The Volkswagen Group has a solid equity ratio of 25% and cash reserves of approximately €40 billion, making insolvency extremely unlikely. Following this, I conducted a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, using our results from the future scenario analysis as a basis. I used the WACC from Volkswagen's annual financial statements as the discount rate and simply the net income as the cash flow figure (though free cash flow would be more appropriate).
I assumed that Volkswagen would still incur a loss of €1 billion in 2016 and that the net income would then gradually increase until it reached the pre-crisis level of €12 billion in 2023. For the terminal value, I assumed €8 billion in net income without any growth rate. As you can see, this is a rather pessimistic valuation overall.
Nevertheless, we arrive at an intrinsic value of €176 per share. The share price was After the emissions scandal became public, the price fell to around €90, an obvious opportunity to make money. Today, approximately eight months after the scandal, Volkswagen shares are trading at around €120. This is the entire investment process in brief.
Of course, the analysis is much more extensive and detailed; however, I simply wanted to illustrate how such an investment process can unfold. After all these steps and analyses, we are still looking at a Volkswagen share with a price potential of approximately 45%. Please do not interpret this as a buy recommendation.
If you want to buy the stock, you should review the individual steps yourself. After I have explained the step-by-step instructions for investing in stocks using the turnaround strategy, we can now look at the remaining four stock strategies of Peter Lych. The second stock strategy is investing in promising stocks.
The global economy develops in cycles; sometimes there is a downturn and sometimes there is an upturn. There are sectors with a high dependence on the economic cycle, and accordingly, the share prices of the companies operating in these sectors fluctuate in parallel with the economic cycle. Such sectors include, for example...
The steel industry, the automotive industry, the chemical industry, and the construction industry are all areas of focus. This strategy involves investing in solid cyclical stocks during a recession or depression and selling them during an upswing or boom. The obvious risk with this strategy is miscalculating the economic outlook.
The third strategy is investing in growth companies. This strategy offers the potential for the most profits, but the risk is correspondingly highest. Peter Lych also achieved the majority of his returns with this strategy. The goal is to identify companies with a solid business model and a great product and invest in the stock early on.
As the company's revenues increase and the company grows, the share price also rises. With this strategy, it is quite possible to increase the invested capital tenfold or even twentyfold. However, since growth companies have high capital requirements and are usually heavily financed by debt, there is a high risk of insolvency.
Furthermore, it is never certain whether the expected growth will actually materialize. Current growth stocks include Amazon and Facebook. If you enter these stocks too late, there is a risk that they are overvalued. In my opinion, this is the case with these three stocks, for example. If you should find a growth stock in the future that the market hasn't yet noticed, you should check the following two points before investing: First, solid financing.
The success of a growth company depends heavily on its financing. To grow, the company needs capital. Where does it raise this capital, and is the financing secured for the next few years? If you can answer this question with "yes," then second, you must assess the company's growth potential. This point is rather subjective.
Do you believe that the company offers a better product or service compared to its competitors? What is the customer satisfaction level among current customers, and what are the company's current growth rates? If you can answer all these questions positively, then you are looking at a potential ten-bagger, i.e., a stock whose value could increase tenfold.
Valuing growth companies is more difficult than, for example, valuing Volkswagen. If you would like to see more videos on the topic of company valuation, and especially on the valuation of growth companies, please leave a comment. The fourth strategy is investing in companies that are in the phase The fifth strategy involves investing in value stocks, i.e., blue chips, which have completed their strong growth phase and now only exhibit low growth rates, such as Apple.
I will discuss these two strategies together because they are very similar. Both strategies involve investing in large companies with high sales and profits. The risk is lowest with these two strategies. Investments are made according to these strategies either for the dividend or when a value stock is undervalued.
A value stock is the stock of a company that generates high and sustainable cash flows, has low dependence on the economic cycle, is a market leader in its industry or at least has a high market share, and has a solid capital structure. Examples of value stocks are IBM, Apple, Nestlé, Coca-Cola, Bayer, and Bayersdorf.
As already mentioned, with these two strategies, you can achieve a solid dividend yield or, in the case of undervaluation, potentially smaller capital gains. This was the step-by- step guide to investing in stocks, which I derived from Peter Lych's book. I read the book in English and enjoyed it very much.
I also recommend you read this book and therefore link the English and German versions in the video description. What do you think of these five stock strategies? Please leave a comment. And if you liked this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any of the following videos.
Until the next video, Deinid from Successful Investing: More Money, Less Risk, and a Better Life
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