저자: Vedo · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치의 투자 원칙을 소개하며, 펀더멘털이 탄탄한 기업을 저평가 구간에서 매수하고 PEG 비율로 가치를 평가하라는 메시지다. 매수 시점: 1997년 인터뷰에서 린치는 펀더멘털이 좋은 기업이 주가 하락으로 공정가치 이하가 되면 매수한다고 설명한다. 시장 급락(2008 금융위기, 2020년 3월, 2022년 10월 등)은 좋은 기업을 싸게 살 기회로 본다. 매수하지 말아야 할 때: 이미 좋은 실적이 주가에 선반영되어 있다면 기대수익이 제한적이므로 피해야 한다. 위험보상비율을 따져야 하며, 맞아도 두세 배, 틀리면 30~40% 손실이 나는 구조면 불리하다. PEG 비율 계산: PER을 예상 EPS 성장률과 배당수익률의 합으로 나눈다. 1 미만이면 저평가, 1 초과면 고평가로 본다. 예시로 Waste Management는 PEG 약 1.42(고평가), UnitedHealth는 약 0.86(저평가)로 제시됐으나 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시했다. 옵션·파생상품: 린치는 옵션을 너무 복잡하고 위험하다며 거래한 적이 없다고 말한다. 영상 제작자도 상승 여력은 작고 위험은 크다는 이유로 옵션을 하지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 공매도: 공매도는 상승 여력이 최대 100%(기업이 0이 되는 경우)로 제한되는 반면 손실은 무한대에 가까워 롱 포지션보다 불리하다고 설명한다. 린치는 기본에 충실한 장기 롱 투자자로 정리된다. 영상 말미에 제작자는 포트폴리오 업데이트와 기본적 분석 영상을 계속 제작하겠다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
when it comes to the investing World there is a shining star named Peter Lynch he's not just legendary he's the Jedi of investors he's an accomplished author and a former captain of the Fidelity Magellan friendship his strategies have made an unmistakable mark on the finance World leaving a trail that speaks volumes about his prowess whose insights keep fueling the fire of inspiration for generations of investors myself included in this video we're skipping the highlights real of his life achievements many of those videos to go around instead in this video we're diving into some quick clips where Peter Lynch spills the beans on when to buy a company when not to buy a company his opinions on options trading which is like trying to do Financial acrobatics his opinion on shorting and finally I will show you his favorite valuation method which you can easily do yourself trust me this would be more exciting than trying to assemble Ikea furniture what's up strangers welcome to the welcome Nation my name is Vedo and I'm here to help you better understand the world game and become part of welcoming the first clip that we will look at is from an interview from 1997 where Peter talks about when to buy a company one thing you're trying to do is take a couple of all these public companies out there here's the company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well their competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60.
all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do not not a slightly one from overpriced to fairly price then there's fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know a five for four sale here we see that Peter Lynch is looking for fundamentally sound businesses which he then basically adds to his watch list as he does not buy them right away he waits for some outside factors to affect everything in the stock market and the prices drop from fairly priced to underpriced example of this happening are more common than you might think there are bad news on every corner and there are always things to worry about in the stock market think of October 2022 every company in the stock market has gone down due to inflation data recession fears conflicts in Europe Etc the extreme examples where tech companies like meta and Nvidia then think of March 2020 due to Roney Rona there was a massive sell-off in the stock market this had very little to do with company performances then the housing crash of 2008 then the.com bubble of 2000 and those are only the market crashes then there are things like recession inflation monetary policy World conflicts and so on sometimes one company has bad earnings and then the whole sector sells off those are the things that Peter Lynch is looking out for when he is considering adding new company to his portfolio the second clip is also from the same interview where Peter Lynch talks about when not to buy a company just think of it this as being you say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much I'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stockshop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong long May you'll lose 30 40 percent that's a favor ratio we say if I'm right the Stock's not gonna go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know okay here Peter talks about valuations of companies and discounting of the future prices or earnings of the companies if great things are already baked into the price of the stock there is little potential for outsized returns the company needs to execute near perfect just to break even with what is already in the price there are many ways to Value the company you can do discounted cash flow analysis Benjamin Graham valuation his risk premium ratio multiples valuation dividends valuation Peter Lynch's valuation Etc and in this video we will go over how Peter Lynch actually values companies well what Peter Lynch does is he uses a ratio called the PEG ratio which he has popularized PEG ratio stands for price to earnings growth it is easily calculated and I will show you now how to do it here we can see I threw a couple of things into an Excel table to explain it more easier first let's look at the formula the formula for the PEG ratio is simply the p e ratio basically the price to earnings divided by the expected earnings per share growth rate in order to calculate this we need only three things that is p e the dividend yield if applicable and expected earnings per share growth rate all this data is easily found out on any stock website I prefer to use the stock unlock which is a website which I'm not affiliated with I just like the guys who are creating the website and the service that they're providing if we go to stock unlock and look at Waste Management we can see that the forward PE is 24.69 and that the dividend yield is 1.75 percent that the only thing that we are missing now is the expected EPS future growth rate we can look at the insights this is based on analyst expectations which of course is just a prediction so we can look at it but we should know that nobody can predict these things these are only assumptions we should always make our own assumptions so here we see that 15.6 is the analysis expectations for future EPS growth for next year going back to the Excel table we add here the future expected growth rate as we saw that is 15.6 the dividend yield which was 1.75 and price to earnings ratio the original formula does not include dividend yield however I think this is very important to consider as this is also a return that investors are getting in case the company actually paid itself's dividends in case the company doesn't pay those dividends we can just simply leave this at zero and use the formula as it's written here you can see the formula here it is price to earnings ratio divided by projected EPS growth plus the dividend yield and we get 1.42 now what does this ratio tells us so according to Peter Lynch everything below 1 is considered undervalued and everything above one is considered overvalued of course the lower the number the more undervalued the company is and the higher the number the more overvalued the company is so here we see Waste Management according to Peter Lynch's ratio the PEG ratio is overvalued that is because the projected EPS growth is much lower than actually the price of the company according to the PE Let's do quickly another example United Health if we go back to stock unlock we can see that the forward PE is 18.99 with a dividend deal of 1.31 and if we go to the insights and we look at the next year's projected EPS by analyst we see that is 20.77 going back to the axle I already plugged in the data we see that the PEG ratio now comes out to be undervalued it comes around 0.86 this is because the price to earnings ratio is lower than the projected EPS growth it seems that the 9 Health Group according to Peter Lynch's PEG ratio is undervalued however this is not Financial advice these are just examples to illustrate how to calculate a PEG ratio now that we know when Peter Lynch buys a company and when he does not buy a company and how he values companies I still have two short clips that I want to show you that will give us more insights into Peter Lynch's investing philosophy the next clip is on options and derivatives also from the same interview from 1997.
big deal what about all the criticism of derivatives and the impact they have had that's a little complicated for me all I know is I mean I don't know for you it's way over my head I've never bought an option in my life I know about your I times on your side when you're on stock you know I don't know about putting you know three percent down and buying a future in a strap and a straddle let's wear my head can't do that right that's something else yeah I find Peter Lynch hilarious which is besides the point however we saw in the clip that he never did options he said they were too complicated for him of course he's just being silly I like his philosophy and I plan to follow in his full steps here and never touch options not because I don't understand them it's simply because there's too little upside and too much risk associated with options derivatives I will explain a little bit more about what he means by his comments about options and derivatives trading once we look at the fourth clip which is 16 years apart from the first clip from 2013 and they're very much tied together so let's look at the next one where he talks about shorting I mean well I I found along obviously tracking some the hedge funds that have been on the long side have done the best I mean they may have a little bit by being sure but being right on the long side because obviously if you're right you can make and that's I would say when I remember General I might even write six times out of ten but if I'm right I make a double or triple occasionally it offsets the times you lose 30 or 40 percent in fact you could be right a third of the time as long as you have a lot of good results so that's when you're short you can only make 90 when you're long you make tenfold or five-fold so I think long is way to be to break down some numbers he said that being correct three to six times out of 10 times when you are making a return of two to three times your money you are much better off than shorting where the upside is maximum 100 this hundred percent would mean that the company or the stock market completely goes to zero so if you're shorting a Company the company would need to go bankrupt and literally go to zero in order to make a hundred percent on your investment if you're shorting the whole Market of course in theory it can go to zero but in practice this is impossible so your upside is only maximum ninety percent so this is a risk versus reward ratio there is simply too little upside and too high of a risk and that's a wrap those are my top clips for my favorite investor Peter Lynch it's Crystal Clear why is it my top pick he is no Speculator no Market timer no short seller no frequent Trader he does not play The Leverage game he does not touch his options nor derivatives he is all about the basics keeping it pure and Laser focused on the fundamentals as I journey toward my own Big Boy status and a full-grown wisdom I've got the blueprint and guess who's the architect yep it's Peter Lynch that's it for today I hope you found this video useful if you have any questions or comments please leave them down below in case you are interested in a full review of my stock portfolio go check out my portfolio Reveal video link is in the description below and if you're not already subscribed to my Channel please hit the Subscribe button and share this video with your friends and family I will do my best to create regular videos with updates of my portfolio I will do more fundamental analysis and review other companies their earnings other investors buys and sells and everything around investing thank you so much for watching and I'll see you in my next video
Comments 0