저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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시장이 '숙취' 국면에 들어갈 수 있다는 비유 중심의 방송이다. 이번 장세는 연초 이후 신중한 종목(메가캡 7개)이 주도했으나, 이후 투자자들이 AI·사이버보안·비만약 등 '버즈 종목'으로 몰리고 최근에는 실적이 나쁜 '해머 종목'까지 사들이는 과열 양상이라고 설명한다. 에스티로더는 중국 봉쇄 등으로 부진했음에도 하루 4~5%씩 반등했는데, 크레이머는 이를 펀더멘털보다 과열된 매수자들의 행태로 본다. 반스 등 VF Corp는 신임 CEO가 단기 개선이 없다고 밝혔음에도 하루 4% 가까이 올랐고, 솔라엣지·엔페이즈 등 태양광주도 금리 하락 기대에 과열 반등 중이라고 지적한다. 페이팔은 크레이머가 펀더멘털이 약하다며 추가 매수에 반대하고 연말 세금 손절 매물 이후 매도를 권했다. 전체적으로 장기 강세장 안에서 일시적 과열 후 조정(숙취)이 올 수 있으므로, 실적 확인 없이 무분별하게 추격 매수하지 말라는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
ARmbc or tweet me at Jim Kramer sometimes the analogy fits so well we just got to use it if only to teach people what's really happening in the market sure we can use the averages they tell the tale of some of the day's action Dal dipping 41 points me declining 0.54% NASDAQ losing 84% but today I saw something something worrisome something that bothered me I saw a hammered Market a market where the buyers have gotten drunk as a proverbial skunk buying the worst of the worst and when you get hammered you know there's going to be a nasty hangover on the way now look for most of the Year this Market's been seen sensible a sober evaluator of merchandise and that's why the Magnificent 7 racked up such big gains go back in time and remember when they were first running it was literally one of the worst weeks of the year when the bank dominoes were falling the rotation in the mega cap Tex made tons of sense at that very moment we thought there'd be a credit crisis any company with a need to borrow money a customer base that needs financing looked like it was to so people dumped the banks and any companies that needed to borrow and gravitated to what they gravitated to alphabet Amazon Apple meta platforms Microsoft Nvidia and Tesla see these companies spew cash they're practically ATM machines even Tesla which used to be desperate for cash but now it's pretty good balance sheet the magnis 7 didn't just appear on the horizon one day out of nowhere they were selected by a market that was sober a sober judge of what could survive pretty much any downturn turn and as it seemed like a recession was suddenly in the cars then as we got further away from the mini banking crisis the market broaden out and investors collectively got a nice Buzz going you could say the market grabbed a couple of Coronas and took its time trigging them you can drag these ships out and maintain the buzz without getting plastered that's little advice there mind you you can't drive you can't discern the road like that but you can buy more aggressive stuff and get a designated driver take your home and that's when we decided we could buy the artificial intelligence in slurry stocks like service now and Adobe the highest quality text that didn't make the Magnificent s cut we lapped up cyber security like proud strikes and Pao Alto we reached for Eli Lily because of the chatter about glp1 success in reducing weight and treating diabetes we grabbed AMD as an alternative to Nvidia glomm Cadence and synopsis Partners Nvidia we gravitated to wmart and Costco the best of the retailers and we fell in love with General Electric as a way to invest in Aerospace space but not everyone at the party acts responsibly do they and some are just not content to be buzzed there's always some Jokers who want to get they want to cross the line and where they want they want to get hammer and that's where we are today the hammered investors have taken over and they're drinking some sort of sternal like punch out of a garbage can consider some of the biggest moves today let's start with est La now this is a company that regretfully we own for the charal trust talk about the good ones there a bad one now at one time it was among the top run businesses in the world offering the best of the best cosmetics and Skin Care Luder managed to dodge the shrinking Department s bullet in this country went huge into Asia especially China it made a big bet on Chinese Travelers who resell their goods and it pushed heavily into the duty free stores brilliant strategy until it wasn't lot ran head first into a counter in of Chinese lockdown that was impossible to game cuz their government was so irrational about Co meanwhile elf Beauty Discount cosmetic company came on strong taking share in some of its best markets it was a disaster for Lauder shareholders with the stock down 44% for the year today though Luder stock was up 5.3% what's going on we can speculate activists involvement I heard that one takeover restructuring heard that too but I think the buyers here are simply hammered they're drunk on Euphoria and hoping that someone even more intoxicated will take it off their hands at a higher price or how about alumina back in the day aluminum was to Biotech equipment as s Lord was to Cosmetics but it missed quarter after quarter after quarter and the stock got knocked down every time well 43% for the year yet today it was up 4% like EST order people remember the once great brand and they think that there's something meaningful going on I look I look not at the company but at the buyers and I think they've had three Manhattans too many not long ago we had Brack and darl the brand new CEO of VF Corp on the show he arrived at the apparel business from Logitech where he had built the greatest computer peripherals company on Earth including some of the finest gaming equipment one of the best waves worth riding in recent years back in July he left Logitech to go clean up the oan stable known as VF Corp a house of brands that fell behind in almost every app power line especially its largest division Vance the sneaker brand with revenues down and a sounding 22% for the year when bracking came on the show he made it clear there's no quick fix to Vans and told us not to expect one this year sober investors would plunge into this punch bowl which is why VF corpse down 32% for the year but buyers were so inated today that the stock jump nearly 4% you want hammer about solar Wall Street turned on the solar stocks when it became clear uh they were really more about financing than electricity because most people have to borrow money to put these solar panels solar Edge and M phas energy down 71% and 59% for the year respectively but now that interest rates have come down with the investors with lampshades on their heads can't help but reach for reach for both of them so solar Edge which was just tossed out of the S&P 500 after two short years was up 1.36% today and face Val 2.2% these stocks are down so much for the year that there might be a new wave of hammered investors anxious to get in before the part's over I wouldn't be surprised if these over served investors go for the postco hard luck losers next Monna fiser maybe docine careful that one reports Thursday or maybe the stocks that have been decimated by worries about these glp1 weight loss drugs consider a company like JM smugger the package food Powerhouse that had the misfortune of buying hostage just before the market decreed that all junk food is Pho the hammer should be where smucker reports tomorrow morning so please wait to sober up with some earnings before you do any buying Under the Influence now these kinds of rotations are classic TS of a bull market in a momentary access mode the sober stocks give way to the buzz stocks we give way to the Hammer stocks it's time and Memorial and then of course the market suffers the inevitable hangover and swears it will'll never drink again you know what that means we go right back to the dry stocks that got overbought and were just sold by those who drank the most many have come down so much by the way you can start buying maybe soon as this week can stocks really mirror life this closely H not really for example there's an old add that says that you should should never be the first to arrive at a party or the last to go home in this TR it's terrific to be the first to arrive as long as you recognize that if you're more than Buzz you've overstayed you're welcome and have to leave but bottom line for those who are slamming them down now and buying stocks under the influence let's hope they have some designated Brokers to help them home otherwise they're going to have some regrets come morning let's say calls let's go to Scott and Florida Scott hey Jim how you doing I'm doing well Scott how about you good good Jim hey man I'm in the uh I'm in The Hurt Locker bad with PayPal and I'm wondering if I me like 60% down with a sizable position and I'm just curious what your thoughts are whether I should Double Down hold or sell no I don't want you to double down because I don't like the fundamentals that much I think that as we get to the end of the year the the tax LW selling will finish and then that's when you have to sell because I just don't think that the company has a lot going for it anymore let's go to Gary in Texas Gary a big Southern University boo yard to you Jim absolutely your show thank you Gary what's going on calling to find out I need to get the 411 on a stock Portillos I want to know what do you think they're starting to expand but there are some questions there what can you hook me up with okay I like that stock and I saw that these uh insiders just kept dumping and dumping and dumping and dumping and dumping and finally I gave up I said you can't go for it anymore it's just too expensive and they won't stop selling and that is bad news all right for those who are slamming them down now and buying the worst performers in the influence I think he had a rough morning ahead oh man money tonight the S&P 500 may be a stward but it's more Dynamic than you think I'll taking a closer look at the latest stocks to join the how index and finding out which ones you might consider for your own portfolio then it's not just Healthcare stocks that can from gop1 drugs I'm evaluating all the tangential winners from these weight loss drugs from Warehouse producers to apparel manufacturers and marel shares plummeted after the company saw Revenue decline in latest quarter so how should investors continue to evaluate the semic company especially when it gave kind of a downbeat forecast I'm seeing where the chips will fall with the COO
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