저자: 미상 · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO Jamie Dimon의 인플레이션 경고를 전달하는 영상. 과도한 정부지출과 재정적자(GDP 대비 부채 123%, 재정적자 6%)가 인플레이션을 지속시킬 수 있고, 금리 인상 가능성이 시장 예상보다 높으며, 스태그플레이션 위험이 있다고 주장. 현재 주가는 연착륙 기대로 인위적으로 높다는 견해.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond has warned that upbeat investors may be running ahead of themselves due to what he has called a lot of happy talk in the market the JP Morgan CEO has shared his concerns that investors seem to be forgetting the serious pricing pressures in the economy that have yet to fully show themselves but are already in the pipeline Equity markets recently hit new highs with the Dow Jones breaking above 40,000 points for the first time before settling slightly lower these gains closed out a period of strong appreciation as financial markets celebrated the recent government announcement that CPI inflation registered 3.4% in April down from 3.5% in March stocks and bond prices Rose as some investors grew more enthusiastic about the possibility that lower inflation would soon clear the way for a Fed interest rate cut however diamond is not so confident and has pointed to the fact that inflation has come in at a higher level than expected in every month so far this year except for April's CPI data in his view stock prices are artificially high as the markets are anticipating a soft Landing but the underlying economic conditions suggest we are still far away from that and it is during such periods that things can go seriously wrong and when Jamie Diamond talks financial markets listen his predictions suggest we should soon expect a seismic shift in the US economy with significant implications for investors both in the US and abroad in his words the chance of inflation Staying High or rates going up are higher than people think in this video we'll cover the reasons why diamond is still so concerned about the state of the US economy and why he believes darker days still lie ahead make sure you watch the full video as at the end we'll share the economic event that diamond is particular particularly worried might happen but first how did we get to this point since suffering High inflation in the 1980s the US economy enjoyed nearly 40 Years of low and stable inflation close to the fed's Target rate of 2% however during the global pandemic the Consumer Price Index or CPI Rose 6.8% between November 20120 and November 2021 higher energy costs caused inflation to then r R further in 2022 reaching a high of 99.1% in June 2022 a high not seen since 1981 with inflation averaging 6.5% for the full year and while inflation has declined since then it's still at a level that's higher than we've seen in the US for over 10 years and is taking much longer to fall than many expected and Jamie Diamond has expressed concerns that high inflation May persist for several reasons as in his view there are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us one of the main inflationary forces he sees right now is excessive government spending driving up prices Diamond's remarks come following the Federal Reserve supplying trillions of new dollars into the US economy over the last few years in an attempt to prevent a widespread economic disaster following covid-19 the fed's goal was to keep markets functioning after they were spooked by the global pandemic by promoting economic growth and making debt cheaper this worked in the short term and prevented an economic collapse but one of the major downsides of spending more money in an economy is inflation when the government spends a lot of money especially on goods and services it boosts overall demand in the economy if this demand exceeds the economy's capacity to produce goods and services it creates an upward pressure on prices leading to demand pool inflation to illustrate this relationship let's take a look at this simple demand and Supply chart Supply in the overall economy is denoted by the as line and demand in the overall economy is denoted by the ad line when the level of demand increases the demand curve moves out to ad2 at this new level of ad2 prices have increased from P1 to P2 along with the output of the economy from q1 to Q2 when demand outpaces the economy's ability to produce goods and services companies respond by raising prices leading to inflation to pay for all this spending the government earns income in the form of federal income tax when it earns more money than it spends a budget surplus results but the last time the US government had a budget surplus was way back in 2001 instead it's regularly been spending more than it earns which results in a budget deficit in fact the government's deficit spending came in at $1.7 trillion in 2023 and it has so far spent $855 billion more than it has collected in the 2024 fiscal year as Diamond put it America has spent a lot of money during Co and after Co our deficit is at 6% now in other words when you take the current US budget deficit and divide it by the value of all the goods and services it produces you get 6% which is a high deficit ratio for any government to maintain to pay for this deficit the government has been borrowing money it does this by selling marketable securities such as treasury bonds all of these Securities pay interest to its investors which the government must pay the national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with Associated interest owed to the investors who purchased the Securities as the government experiences reoccurring deficits which is common the national debt grows while it is not uncommon for governments to borrow money to finance spending the US national debt has ballooned over the last 40 years or so in fact adjusting for inflation US national debt has increased by over 700% from $4.2 trillion in 19 83 to its current level of $ 34.7 trillion to review how sustainable a country's level of debt is economists compare a government's level of debt to that country's GDP in 1980 US debt to GDP stood at 35% in 2010 it had grown to 90% but in the last few years it has shot up to new highs reaching 123% by the end of 2023 in other words the US government now owes way more money than its economy produces signaling a country living far beyond its means as Diamond puts it any country can borrow money and drive some growth but that may not always lead to good growth I think if you want to do a great job in your country and you have a 6% deficit and 100% debt to GDP this can go on for a while but the sooner we focus on it the better if you want to stay updated on the latest Global Financial news and money topics that can help you build your wealthy life please don't forget to subscribe to the channel okay moving on in addition to racking up record levels of debt the US government has also been increasing money supply in the economy through quantitative easing or QE put simply QE involves the FED purchasing government bonds and other Securities to inject money into the economy the most recent QE program was under taken in 2020 in response to the global pandemic with the Federal Reserve purchasing $700 billion worth of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities from domestic financial institutions but increasing the money supply through QE can create inflationary pressures that can lead to higher consumer prices in the future this occurs due to something called the quantity theory of money according to this Theory prices in an economy are directly proportional to the quantity of money in circulation to explain this relationship let's take a look at this simple demand and Supply chart the vertical line shows the fixed money supply in the economy and the downward curve shows money demand the money demand curve slopes downward because as the value of money decreases consumers are forced to carry more money to make purchases because goods and services cost more money money similarly when the value of money is high consumers demand little money because goods and services can be purchased for less money the value of money is ultimately determined by the intersection of the money supply as controlled by the fed and money demand as created by consumers when the FED increases the money supply the vertical money line shifts to the right notice that the new intersection of the money supply curve and the money demand curve is a a lower value of money but a higher price level this happens because more money is in circulation so each dollar bill becomes worth less it takes more dollars to purchase goods and services and so the price level increases accordingly inflation can then spiral in the economy as higher prices mean higher input costs for businesses higher input costs mean businesses produce less than they could before and this decline in Supply results in higher prices and reduced output causing something known as cost push inflation and this is why Jamie Diamond is so concerned about the current levels of inflation in his words the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to this now begs the question how do you tackle this inflation problem one of the key monetary policy tools available to the Federal Reserve is interest rates interest rates are the price of borrowing money money when interest rates are low it's cheaper to borrow money for things like buying a house or starting a business but when inflation starts to climb the FED might decide to raise interest rates they do this to slow down the speed of price increases as higher interest rates make it more expensive for people and businesses to borrow money discouraging consumer spending and discouraging companies from taking on debt to finance expansion higher interest rates also make makes saving more attractive further reducing consumer spending this can help keep inflation from getting too high and Jamie diyon is expecting more rate hikes in the future as he puts it the chance of inflation Staying High or rates going up are higher than people think he has also warned that high levels of government spending could keep price increases sticky causing something known as stagflation stagflation is a term used to describe a situation where an economy experiences stagnant economic growth alongside High inflation and high unemployment this combination of economic conditions is considered unusual because conventional economic theory suggests that high inflation is typically associated with strong economic growth while high unemployment is associated with low inflation or even deflation stagflation is a real concern for an economy because it can have a number of negative imp impacts firstly it can erode the purchasing power of wages and savings leading to a decline in real incomes this can cause consumers to cut back on spending which can weaken economic activity and create real uncertainty for businesses as high inflation means their goods are costing more to produce and supply to the market but High inflation also means that consumer spending is low and uncertain this makes it very difficult for businesses to plan for the future the uncertainty can lead to reduced investment in new projects and increased cost cutting further dampening economic growth prospects and potentially leading to high unemployment as jobs are cut to save costs in Diamond's words if you have higher rates and God forbid stagflation you will see stress in real estate leveraged companies and private credit as a result Diamond believes that whatever the market is currently pricing in for a soft Landing of the US economy should probably only be half of that as he put it I think the chances of something going wrong are higher than people think if you want to know how to protect your money during these scary Economic Times click on this next video to get started thanks for watching and until next time keep building your wealthy life
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