저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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셧다운 중에도 시장은 견조했고 경제지표 공백은 큰 악재가 아니라고 주장. 중국·관세 우려와 은행 부실 우려는 과장됐으며 대체로 매도보다 매수 신호로 해석. 애플 하향은 과도했고 아이폰17 수요는 강했다고 진단. 장기적으로 불리한 뉴스에도 시장 상승 추세를 신뢰하라고 강조. 리더 발언에서 레딧 상승 전망, UPS 바닥 시도 가능성에 대해 개별 의견 제시.
다듬은 글
Hey, I'm Craver. Welcome to Man Money. Welcome to Kramer. I got two big put it in context. So, call me 1800743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. Bulls waste a huge amount of time shadow boxing the Bears. Yeah, the Bulls are always on the defensive even when they have the history, the data, and the numbers on their side.
How is that possible? I think people just refuse to trust the market. They want to find reasons not to like stocks and they're willing to go to great lengths to find them. SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL. You can see it on a day like today. One that started very negative and then rebounded slowly.
Dow ultimately finishing up 144 points has to be advancing.58%. And then NASDAQ climbing 89%. Wow, that was terrific. Now, I spent a huge amount of time in how to make money in any market talking about how you need to trust the stock market. You need to believe in it to invest. If you don't, you'll constantly get scared away at exactly the wrong time.
Habitually buy high and then sell it low. And that's I think why so few people actually build wealth in THE STOCK MARKET. SO, let's talk about the doubts that drive people away from being good investors using today as a reference point. Now, what I want to do, I'm going to tick down the objections raised by intelligent people that make you feel like a chump for owning individual stocks.
And they do, particularly rich people, by the way. Let's go through the steeple chase of October, right up until this morning. First, we're on day 23 of a government shutdown. Go back to the beginning of the moment. What was the rhetoric of the moment? It was simple. While shutdowns historically haven't meant anything to the stock market, we were told this time would somehow be different.
Why? Because of President Trump. meaning that because of President Trump, the shutdown will be bad for stocks. What happened? Well, the market's been fine. It hasn't been hurt by a lack of economic data. It hasn't been crushed by what could happen if hundreds of thousands of federal workers stay furled.
Unless you work for the government, you might not even know what's going on. That may be unfair, but it's true. Again, historically, these shutdowns simply don't matter to the market. If anything, they've been a positive catalyst for stock as crazy as that seems. The one problem is we haven't been getting a lot of government data at tomorrow.
We're going to get the CPI, the consumer price index. Now, interest rates went up today, I think, in preparation for a bad CPI tomorrow. If it indeed is too hot, there will be another set of people who are going to come on our air and they're going to tell you to sell because of the CPI. Do me a favor.
Don't listen to them. Second, hardly a day goes by when the president doesn't threaten or control or express frustration with China. Every time he says something is front page, it's almost always negative. I people shake. The media makes it sound like it's heightened tensions with China. Economic catastrophe.
There's a whole host of hedge fund managers eager to tell you this is a perilous time. They're so rich. They don't care about you. They don't. Semis get sold off even though the summer and shorts pie like Micron or Intel which put a fantastic quarter this evening. Those stocks get sold all the time because of China.
Look, I don't mean to mock the process of foreign relations, but this is a president who negotiates in many different ways. Usually he takes a hard line that freaks people out and causes them to sell stocks. Sell, sell, sell. But then he compromises and you feel like an idiot for bailing on the market and now you don't get back in and there goes all the money that that you were hoping to make in the stocks.
I've gotten to the point where when I see the market come down because of the president's statements about China, I want to tell you just go buy because it's been a winning strategy the whole way. Third, nine days ago, we heard the most distinguished banker in the world tell us that we were entering a period of heightened risk where mistakes can and will happen.
There have been two big defaults. One of them causing JP Morgan to take a $170 million charge. Co Jamie Diamond said at the time, quote, I shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there's probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one. End quote. At the same time, there were some other bad loans in the system that dinged a couple regional banks.
It caused a huge firestorm of selling, man. The regionals, they got crushed. But it turns out there is no cockroach infestation. Looking at the banks that have reported, we're actually seeing some of the fewest falls as a percentage of loans I can ever recall. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, two pains to point that out.
So did American Express. Capital One. Look, I'm not trying to give Jamie Diamond a hard time. Let others do that. He's an amazing banker. He's a nice guy. I think it always pays to be vigilant. He's probably right that there will be eventually other cockroaches. There's always a lot of cockroaches. Like, you know, you can't ex nuclear war is not going to take those guys away.
But so far, the rest of the industry looks pretty clean. You know what I've been thinking? I think Jamie, it was an ill-advised analogy. Here's what I would say would have been better. Sometimes you just get had. Fourth, we know one thing. When we came into this month, Apple stock had become suspect, scary, dangerous.
I mean, like, wow. Sell, sell, sell. So many experts told us that the iPhone 17 wasn't doing that well. We heard about weak lead times and how this one was just one more iteration in a tired and boring line of phones that nobody really wanted. An analyst from Jeff on October 3rd downgraded Apple not not from a buy to a hold.
Uh-uh. No, no, no. But from a hold to an actual sell SELL a sell, saying that anything good about the new phone was already priced in. The expectations were excessive. This downgrade sent chills through any Apple B bull. In other words, he was saying even if the numbers were good, it wouldn't matter.
I bet that scared a lot of you. Did it scare you? Did you sell the stock because of it? Did you violate my own Apple don't trade it dictum? This week, we started with three different firms proclaiming that the iPhone 17 turned out as much bigger hit than anyone thought. Getable fact. Just had to look at the lines worldwide to see how people were desperate to get their hands in this thing.
You just had to listen to the outgoing Coot Mobile when he told you the sales were brisk because of the deal they were offering the 17. Honestly, you just had to try one to see how special it is. Yeah, Apple keeps going higher. Finally, the tariffs. We've had a couple weeks of earning season. So far, the tariffs really haven't been that much of a factor other than the media where we ask everybody about them.
I've yet to see a downgrade triggered by the tariffs. It's not that they aren't there, it's just they're not the hoot small smooth holy. Uh if they got baked into share prices months ago, well, that's you won't even notice if you sold because of the tariffs. And so many of you did. Oh, we apologize.
We shouldn't have scared you. You need to remember that when the CPI comes out tomorrow, because just in case it's too hot because of the tariffs, you don't sell stocks by mistake. Outside of here, right here, right over here is a street. Okay? It's called Broad Street. 42 years ago, I walked down this street on the way to my job on 55 Broad at Goldman Sachs.
The Dow at the time was at 1,000. That was some 45,000 points ago. Do you know what I heard every day back then when I was at 55 Broad Street? I'll tell you what I heard. Oh, what a terrible time to invest. Horrible. Rates are too high. Housing's too expensive. Inflation's still out of control. We had a cowboy actor as a president who didn't know anything about the stock market and even his own vice president accused him of practicing voodoo economics.
So, when I started working, I heard the fabled three words that I've heard for most of my working life, including from my own lips. when I got it wrong and that is get out now. Since then, Dow since I first heard get out now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone from 1,000 to about 46,000. To many of the people who come on and talk about the market, that rise means absolutely nothing.
They treat the market as if we're a coin with a bull on one side and a bear on the other. Doesn't matter that there's history on the bull side. They think they treat each session as a 50/50 coin flip. But the bottom line, this market is not a bunch of coins to be flipped. It's a collection of companies to be invested in.
So do this for me. If you're going to think of the market as a tug-of-war between the Bulls and the Bears, would you at least think of the Bulls as the favorite and give them the benefit of the doubt? Because if history's any guide, the bull deserves it. Gregory in California. Gregory. This is Gregory.
And I've got a problem. I'm an over buyer. Jim, I own too many stocks. I own more than the investing club. I may need you to be my sponsor and help me out here because I find it hard to sell quality. So, look, if you tell me to get rid of this one, I I will. But it beat the streets EPS by a whopping hund a thousand thousand% over the last two quarters, and the price went from 120 to 283 as a result.
Now, it's come way down, but I still have a pretty sizable gain. So, do I sell it now, hold through earnings that are in a week, or buy more of Reddit? I think Reddit's doing terrifically, Gregory. Thank you always for your call. You're just an amazing follower of Mad Money. I think Reddit's going to go much, much higher.
They've got the data that a lot of these search engines need. And I've got to tell you, I think management I think Steve Hoffman is under He's really just He doesn't get the credit he deserves. I like the guy. Let's go to Dan in New York. Dan, hey Jim, calling you from Oyster Bay, Long Island. Love your show.
All your insight. Elabor some some of my guys like to play at Piping Rock, but that's because they're America's guests. I don't get in any of those clubs. What's going on? It's a great course. Uh well, the stock I like about is uh is uh UPS. Uh I bought uh this stock as a value play earlier this year when it was getting beat up.
Uh couldn't resist the yield and uh continued to get beaten up with the tariff news and I bought some more and the prices stabilized around 85ish. So I'm averaged in about 103. And uh my questions are, should I buy more? Should I hold or should I do I think the stock's trying to bottom. I think the stock's trying to bottom, Dan.
I personally don't care for it. I am a huge buyer of FedEx and I like JB Hunt. So don't say I'm Don't say I'm anti-transport. That would be a big mistake. It's just that I do feel that UPS the dividends so big. I don't know. And I know they're sacra, but they could use some money. All right. If you think the market is just a constant battle between the Bulls and the Bears, at least could you give the take the look, I'll tell you, you got to give the points to the Bulls.
Uh because I got to tell you, they are they just do better than the Bears is if history's any guide. Okay, they're the they're the favorite. How about that? Well, man, money tonight. Breaking up is hard to do unless you're General Electric. I'm running through the earnings reports from two of its descendants, G Aerospace and Genova, showing you where I come down.
Leads to excellent companies. Then what the heck happened to the stock of IBM early this morning? I'm going to break down the post earnings move with big blue to help you make sense of where the company is headed next and do hasn't caught fire this year like other companies with the ties to the data center.
But today's move, I don't know, maybe a sign of things to come. Let's sit down with the company CEO to find out in this terrific investing club holding. .
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