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갱신2026-10-28 07:00:00

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TOM LEE: The great leverage unwind continues in AI 'bottlenecks' and Korea. Signs we are at a bottom

Fundstrat Capital · 2026-07-30 · 유튜브 시청 89,905 · 게시판 조회 9 · 외국인

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Hello, of July 27th. I'll start with some details. As of July 24, the price of Granny Shots, ticker GRNY (large- cap ETF), was 27.10, and total assets were 4.3 billion. Granny J, the small- and mid- cap Granny Shots ETF, had a price of 28.46 and assets of $505 million. And Granny I, the profitable Granny, had a price of $20.76 and assets of $55 million .

Let's look at the results from last week, it's been a tough few weeks. Granny fell 75 basis points compared to the S&P falling 60 basis points, meaning we were about 17 basis points behind . Granny J's performance for the week was zero compared to a 54 basis point drop in the Russell 2500 index , giving it a 54 basis point relative advantage.

And the income Granny fell 0.72 compared to the S&P's fall of 0.6, meaning the lag was about 11 basis points. Since the beginning of the year, Granny has grown by 9.58% compared to 8.98% in the S&P, i.e. a relative advantage of 59 basis points. Granny J rose 11% compared to 19% in the Russell 2500, a lag of 805 basis points.

And the profitable Granny is up 8% year-to-date compared to 8.98% in the S&P, which means about 100 basis points of relative lag. I think the main topic last week was the massive reduction in leverage. I mean, we see " tight-spot" stocks like Micron, a memory maker, down 41% from its highs at 7:39. The steady decline in memory and semiconductor stocks has forced Wall Street to require funds focused on AI to provide additional collateral.

I already warned you that margin debt has skyrocketed in the last 12 months to $1.4 trillion. Historically, this indicates a period when markets typically have to consolidate this elevated level of debt. We also know that it largely comes from Korea. Korea's Kospi index has risen sharply this year, but began to fall in late June, and in the past few days this has grown into a 41% drop from its peaks.

This is a huge decline for the national index. In fact, it caused such a drop that financial authorities even called an emergency meeting. And the finance minister actually apologized to retail investors for these credit ETFs and the subsequent large losses they suffered. But here's the thing. Stock valuations of semiconductor companies have fallen significantly.

You pay 25 times more, but in reality, if you exclude AMD and Intel, you get performance in the mid- 10s. Nvidia is trading at a multiple of 16. And, um, you can see that here. Um, by the way, memory stocks are down seven times , and software stocks are down 25 times, but again , in memory, seven is the average, and if you exclude Seagate, you're actually closer to five times.

And if you look at the software without Palantir, the indicators are within tenths. I mean, the multipliers have come down significantly. In fact, take a look at Micron here. It trades at 4.8 times forward earnings , which is a 1.7 discount to its 10- year average. So, it became cheap. That's a 33 percent move just to reach the average long-term P/E ratio.

And just 8 months ago, its P/E was almost 13. But while these semiconductors and scarce stocks are correcting, remember that the Magnificent 7, software, Ethereum, and cryptocurrencies are recovering. This is what we were pointing out. So just keep that in mind. As for the S&P, I really think we are close to the end of the sell-off.

Let me explain. I'm showing you the S&P 500 chart from the beginning of the year here and I'm marking the DeMark indicators here. Ahem. 13s appeared near the top. This is what they call a sales countdown. And as you can see, we had 13 at the peak in January and a few in late May and June. And as you can see, the market consolidated for a while and then eventually fell.

Well, and then it creates what are called purchase leads. And the countdown to purchase has been nines on the bottom lately. As you can see, we were in the bottom nine when the war escalated earlier this year. Markets fell a little further, but then there was a 21% rally. Well, you see, today we got the bottom nine.

So maybe we'll fall a few more points, but ultimately, I think a big rally is just around the corner. So, let's take a look at Granny's stock performance . Um, among large- cap Granny stocks, the top five performers over the past week are: Packaging Corp, AMD, Deere, Vistra, Northrop Grumman. The five worst: Alphabet, Meta, American Express, Oracle, and Tesla.

As for small- cap companies, the top five in terms of performance are Riot, Weatherford International, Carpenter Technology, Mueller Industries, and Avery Dennison. The five outsiders are Valmont, MP Materials, UiPath, Zeta Global, and Bloom Energy. Regarding topics, the change in investment style remains the strongest, followed by the easing of financial conditions and the recovery of the PMI index.

So, that's all for today. Thank you for your attention , we'll hear from you soon .

#AMD

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