저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 2020년 3월 시점 마이클 버리의 TLRD(테일러브랜즈) 지분 확대 소식을 소개하나, 진행자 본인은 기본적 펀더멘털이 위험하다고 보고 현재 포지션은 없음. [버리의 매수 배경] 마이클 버리는 Scion Capital을 운용하며, TLRD 지분을 2017년 이후 수백만 달러 투입해 약 13%까지 확대한 것으로 소개됨. 그는 내부자(10% 이상 보유, 8% 이상 보유)로서 공시를 통해 매매가 드러남. [회사 개요] TLRD는 Men's Wearhouse, Joseph A. Bank 등을 보유한 지주회사이며, 미국 내 약 1,700개 매장을 운영(2016년 기준). 주가는 2014년 약 62달러 고점 대비 크게 하락. [주가 및 상황] 코로나19 사태로 매장이 대부분 휴업하며 2020년 3월 주가가 139달러 수준의 역사적 저점을 기록. 장기 부채가 많아 파산 우려가 제기되며 시장 심리는 부정적. [진행자의 분석] 버리가 부채 조건을 정확히 파악했기 때문에 매수했을 수 있다는 해석과, 과거 성공이 미래 성공을 보장하지 않으며 손실 종목을 버리지 못하는 심리(물타기)일 수도 있다는 해석을 함께 제시. [해자(moat) 논쟁] 정장은 온라인(아마존 등)에서 잘 사지 않고 직접 입어봐야 하는 특성이 있어 대형 맞춤 정장 유통의 해자가 될 수 있다는 가능성 언급. [경영진 평가] 2014년 Joseph A. Bank 인수 과정에서 과도하게 비싸게 인수한 점을 들어 경영진 역량에 의문 제기. [결론 및 포지션] 펀더멘털 기준으로 TLRD는 위험한 투자이며, 코로나 국면을 넘길 수 있을지 불확실하다고 판단. 진행자 본인은 현재 포지션이 없고, 향후 확신이 생기면 진입 가능성만 언급. [예측 관련] 진행자는 TLRD에 대해 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측을 하지 않음. 버리의 매수는 긍정적 신호로 해석될 수 있으나 확정적이지 않다는 입장.
다듬은 글
what's up guys welcome back to ten baggers the channel with grow stock discussion for young investors let's get one up on Wall Street today I'm gonna be discussing a massive stock purchase that was just made by Michael burry you know the guy who made millions shorting the market in 2008 watch this video if you're interested to know what burry is investing millions of dollars into these days and whether or not the same exact stock is a good investment for guys like us before I get started I would just like to take a second to ask you to help me out with the YouTube algorithm by smashing the like button and commenting down below one stock that you're currently investing in or researching as a future investment okay so back to the video about burry stock pick sentiment has been mixed about this company with some commenters saying that it is sure to go out of business and others saying that they will expect to see a boom in business after the CV thing passes over the jury is still out on this one so if you're interested watch the video until the end where I disclosed whether or not I'm a buyer in this stock okay so a little background here Michael burry runs Scion Capital which is a decently small fund compared to some others out there so he's not always obligated to show his portfolio holdings that being said there are certain ways to fall what the man is investing in in this particular case he had to file a report which lets the public know that insiders are buying and selling shares of a company this happens for a variety of reasons and is not always indicative of how a stock will perform burry already owned 8% of the company with his capital which is why he's considered an insider I guess you're wondering what the stock is by now no it's not drum cymbals or zantac okay bad jokes I know alright I won't leave you waiting any longer it's called taylor brand's ticker TL rd which is a holding company for a few smaller brands namely Men's Wearhouse and Joseph a bank their men's suit dealers with almost 1,700 locations across the country as of 2016 TL Rd has been beaten down quite a bit since the all-time highs around 62 dollars a share in 2014 but buri still sees a contrary investment in the company he's pouring in millions of dollars since 2017 to now become a 13% owner of the company burry obviously has strong convictions about TL Rd with the latest CV situation the stack has been the stock has been absolutely hammered it's fallen to an all-time low of 139 in March 2020 and as an sentiment on the street is definitely not positive about the stock the company has tons of long-term debt with many if not all stores currently closed during the outbreak honestly tailor brands looks ready for bankruptcy so why is Michael berry buying well for one Michael burry is able to read the exact terms of the debt that they owe he has proven to be an expert at finding inconsistencies in special situations like the one which ultimately led him to shorting the mortgage industry in 2008 and making millions since Bernie knows exactly what debt tailored brands has and he's still upping his stake in the company he must figure that they will be able to see the other side of the CV situation and continue to pay their debt otherwise why would he buy the other reason I can provide here is that he's experiencing the inability to give up on his investment investing more and more until they both go bankrupt I would hope he's able to be more objective about the situation but who knows people are pretty crazy I also think it's important to note that just because someone was very right in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will be very right in the future another possible reason burry is so high on TL rd is and this just came to me while I was writing script for this video it's that they actually do have a decent moat there's no other company that provides men's suits at the scale that they do men's suits are not likely to be bought on Amazon or other e-commerce stores because it something that the consumer really wants to try on in the store before they buy and perhaps even get something tailored pun intended I have to say based on fundamentals TL Rd is a risky investment here it remains to be seen if the company can whether through the CV thing and the management is actually proven to be rather inept engaging in a hostile takeover in which they overpaid to take over a smaller rival in Joseph a bank in 2014 I'm not a hundred percent with Murray on this one and as such I do not currently have a position in TL Rd that being said I will be keeping a close eye on the situation at tailored brands and possibly start a position when I'm more certain about the company's prospects through this uncertainty if I start a position in TL Rd you can be the first one to find out by following me on twitter at 10x baggers well that's all I have for today good luck bagging folks
Comments 0