저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 모델3로 대중시장 제품-시장 적합성을 찾은 변곡점 기업이며, 전기차 전환을 상용화하는 머스크의 실행력은 높게 평가할 만하다. 테슬라 전환사채(컨버터블)는 주식과 기타 부채보다 선순위 변제를 받으므로 하방이 보호되는 무위험에 가까운 옵션이라고 주장한다. 다만 그는 보통주가 머스크나 내부자가 아니라 헤지펀드 등 금융 조작자들의 손에 있어 변동성이 크다고 보고, 채권을 사서 머스크가 실행하게 두는 것이 낫다는 입장이다. 머스크의 경영 스타일(과감한 수치 제시, 간혹 놓치는 목표, 잦은 트윗)은 본질적 문제가 아니며, 투자자는 소음과 본질을 구분해야 한다고 강조한다. 모델3 수요는 공급을 초과하고 있어 기업 실체는 확실하다는 논리다. 경쟁(아우디 전기차 등) 우려에 대해서는 기존 카테고리 리더가 명확한 승자가 되는 사례(애플 아이팟·아이폰, 주크 미디어플레이어 실패)를 들며 테슬라가 전기차 전환의 명확한 승자라고 본다. 애플(2,000억 달러 현금)이나 구글이 위기 시 인수에 나설 수 있어 공매도 베팅은 근시안적이라고 주장한다. 공매도 투자자 짐 체노스를 겨냥해 그가 10년에 한 번 돈을 벌고 대부분 손실을 본다고 비판하며, 혁신 기업에 대한 공매도는 장기적으로 수익성이 없다고 말한다. 이 영상은 2021년 1월 기준 장기(3~5년) 관점의 견해이며, 특정 단기 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
let's talk about tesla okay what was it more than two years ago you're at stone you you pitch the converts converts sam where are you with those today and then i want to talk to you more broadly about that company so if you if if you if you take a step back right um if i asked you to sort of you know um attempt to drive a golf ball off the pier here into um a teacup and gave you a million tries i suspect that in a million times you would not be able to do it but if you then took somebody else and they were able to do it nine times out of ten you'd say wow that person is a great golfer the analogy that i would make is elon basically did that equivalent he was able to send a rocket into space do all kinds of interesting enormously productive useful things for the world while in space and then come back down and land on a boat in the middle of the ocean the kind of technical sophistication that he has in his mind that he's been able to apply across his companies is second to none quite honestly so when we looked at tesla what we thought was a company at an inflection point that was as close to a its version of an iphone moment and what i mean by that is a company that had been growing up taking risks and it finally found the mass market product that would unlock an enormous amount of product market fit and that was the model 3 and so far what i would say is he's living up to what he has signed up for which is to commercialize electrification to commercialize an incredible user experience at a price point that has frankly cannibalized its competitors and what you see in the results in my opinion is a company that is now maturing under all of that demand and so again is it the best suited company if you want to drive and observe quarter over quarter precision and performance no but if you want to take a step back and take a three five year view and say where can i compound my money and particularly with the converts what's so beautiful is it's downside protected because it sits on top of all the equity and the other debt and so if you have any concern that there's liquidity issues or if you have any concerns that the company may have to sell they get paid first so to me it was a riskless option on the edison of our generation but you weren't you're you're you're not you weren't necessarily comfortable enough with the story to buy the comments the reason is because the common stock is not controlled unfortunately enough by him or the insiders what it's controlled by are a bunch of vulture-like venture and hedge funds mostly hedge funds who like to prey on that company if you look at for example the twitter traffic or if you look at the forum traffic around tesla the amount of hyping or under hyping the amount of sniping is enormous all of that signals to me that it is a market that is out of the control of the founders and the executives and firmly in the hands of financial manipulators my perspective is buy the bonds you're protected and allow elon to execute isn't the founder and his actions responsible for a lot of what you're talking about well all i see frankly is that he has tried to execute to the best of his abilities he puts out aggressive numbers he tries to meet those numbers sometimes he misses those numbers what would you rather he misses the numbers but that's okay because in the course of the year or in the course of the five years if you take a five year step back and say what is he promised in 2014 to what is he doing in 2019 you'd be ecstatic similarly if you take a step back and say from 2019 to 2024 let the man do his job will we be better or worse off as a planet as a species as humanity as consumers we will be better off and no one debates his his genius it's lauded um celebrated it's the fact that he the way he runs his company you're you're comfortable with with that if you're an investor in in tesla you're 100 comfortable with the way he is a ceo yeah none of the actions that he's done over the last year uh or so give you pause at all what like what do you mean meaning the model three is an incredible car i just bought one it's incredible i bought it the way funding secured i mean what was that okay maybe he stepped out of bounds my point is you're getting caught up in the window dressing i'm focusing on the main course the main course is on the table the choice for you as a buyer or seller of that stock is do you want to eat it if you get caught up in all of the stuff around the edges maybe he may mistweet from time to time my point is who cares your job as a smart investor is to separate the facts and the news from the fiction and the noise and it doesn't matter it does not change the fact that tens of thousands of consumers are buying that car faster than they can get their hands on it it doesn't change that the minute you sit inside that car your definition of what is expected is altered forever and you wonder why every other car around you that you ever step in that you may buy doesn't have the same things that that car offers so at the end of the day whether you like his style or not his substance is irrefutable sure but i walked down the street here in san francisco the other day i see a billboard for the new audi uh electric car that's coming i mean competition is coming if it's not already here that gives you no pause you're right because uh i remember all the zune media players i bought after apple released um the ipod i also remember the enormous number of amazing smartphones i bought when the iphone was launched it's not what people do you know it tends to be the case that when you redefine expectations and you have a category leader and you have an indelible brand and a mark that people recognize the easiest decision let me be a little pejorative the lazy decision is to pick the winner and go with it and in this case there is a clear winner in electrification it is done that die has been cast and so now the question is can he build the infrastructure to deliver the demand and if given time and if given patience i believe he will and i vote with my money that he can do that and everybody that bets against him can do that as well but at what stake really because it's not as if there's no downside protection for the stock the people who short this company are so short-sighted because the number of companies that would come out of the woodwork you don't think that apple with 200 billion dollars of cash backstops this company and has a chance to enter a trillion dollar market overnight by buying that business if it gets imperiled in any way google which already tried to buy it wouldn't try to buy it again i'd say it's a risk so what are we betting against we're betting against the cleaner earth because we don't like that we like to suck in the carbon monoxide and the fumes from all these cars we're betting against beautiful flat screens beautiful ways in which to manage your experience inside the car because we don't like that no we're betting against whether he can deliver what he says the fundamentals of the company that's what they're doing no no that's not true people are betting against his style they don't like his styles it's not just that he makes sense there's people they're smart people like jim chanos he's a smart investor he's not betting just on his style jim chanos makes money once a decade while the market rips up the guy just bleeds money and he's never on cnbc and every time something works he's there for five minutes great for jim chinos fantastic as a hedge in a portfolio where you have one percent in a short fund but the reality is being long equities makes sense being long innovation makes sense betting against entrepreneurs that are changing the world has never been a profitable endeavor why start now i'm sure mr chains is going to take issue with your numbers and some of your comments and i'm happy to post my returns against chain noises anytime you
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