저자: 미상 · 외국인
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테니스 비유로 투자의 승자게임(챔피언형: 위너를 치는 방식)과 패자게임(아마추어형: 실수를 피하는 방식)을 설명. 하워드 막스는 투자가 패자게임에 가깝지만 시장 비효율이 존재한다고 봄. 과열된 트렌드 경계, 평균이 아니라 최악의 날을 버틸 포트폴리오 구성, 너무 앞서가면 틀린 것과 같다는 점을 강조하며 겸손과 신중함을 주장.
다듬은 글
the losers game by Charlie Ellis this is very interesting uh anybody here know the name of the company TRW few people TRW used to be a big conglomerate uh and now it's known primarily for credit scores and uh there was a guy named Sao he was the r it was it was Thompson rmo Woolridge and he was the r in TRW and very smart and Sao wrote a book and uh it was about uh winning at tennis who here plays tennis okay this is good because as I go around the world now very few people play tennis anymore but uh what what what Ramo said is that there are two kinds of winning tennis players if you look at Pete SAS or uh Nadal or jokovic how do they win the winning Champion tennis player wins by hitting winning shots he hits shots that the opponent can't return they're either so well-placed or so strategic or so fast and hard that the opponent can't return them and if Nadal hits a shot which is not a potential winner then his opponent can probably put it away because it doesn't have enough difficulty on the ball so the the championship tennis player wins by hitting winners you play tennis right how do you win do you wintime how do you win if I win it's by not hitting it out it's that's right the amateur tennis player like him and me we win not by hitting winners but by avoiding hitting losers and we believe that if we can just push it back 20 times and just get it over the net 20 times our opponent can only do it 19 we believe that that we'll out steady him Outlast him and eventually he'll hit it into the net or off the court we'll win the point but we'll win the point without having hit a winner so there are obviously two styles of tennis and so same is true for investing and uh so Charlie Ellis wrote an article called the loser game and he said he thought that in investing so championship tennis is a winnner game it's won by winners he thought amateur tennis is a losers game it's won by the people who avoid being losers he thought that Charlie thinks or thought that investing is a losers game and so the best way to win at tennis is by at investing is by not hitting losers now uh I believe also that it's a losers game uh not as much as Charlie believes and not for the same reason Charlie believes that that investing is a losers game uh because the market is efficient and securities are priced right I believe there are inefficiencies I just think it's hard to consistently take advantage of them and you have to be an exceptional person to take advantage them on a consistent basis and uh uh you know the reason that the pro can go for winners is because he is so well schooled and practice and steady and talented that he knows that if he does this with his foot and this with his hip and this with his elbow and this with his wrist that the ball will go where he wants he doesn't worry about miscues uh wind sun in his eyes uh distraction he's so well schooled um and in fact you know in in in scoring tennis matches they keep track of something called unforced errors and the reason they keep track of them is because there are so few the pro doesn't make a lot of unforced Errors we make unforced errors all the time and so we have in order to survive we have to avoid them so the point is if you're going to be an investor you have to decide am I good enough to go for winners or should I emphasize the avoidance of losers in my Approach so lastly I'll just leave you with what I consider my three greatest adages not mine but the ones I've encountered over my career and that have been the most helpful um and they're all used in the book first of all what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end in every Trend in investing It event becomes overdone if you find an asset which is cheap and buy it that's great if everybody else figures it out that it's cheap then it'll go up every then people see that it's rising and more people jump on the bandw and goes up up up and the last person to buy it is a is a fool and the first person to do do it buy it is a wise man it's the same asset just at different prices and and as as people say first the innovator then the imitator then the idiot it so that's another way to look at this adage number two never forget the 6 tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was 5T deep on average kind of like that sky diver who's right 98% of the time it's not sufficient depending on how you want to live your life to survive on average we have to survive on the bad days so we have to be able to survive the low spots in the Stream your portfolio has to be set up to survive on the bad days so you won't be shaken out uh of your Investments and then finally being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong and yet that's a great challenge because as I said before the things that are supposed to happen will not necessarily happen and they absolutely will not happen on time so you have to be able to live until the wisdom of your decisions is proved if at all so all of these things I think say something about of modesty and humility of belief rather than shess which I think is the greatest risk
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