저자: Kevin · 외국인
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JP Morgan 경제 이벤트 참석 후 발언 정리. 채권 측 관점은 금리 인하 시 수익률 하락 가능성을 언급하며 국채 포트폴리오가 머니마켓보다 나을 수 있다고 함. 경기는 '롤링 리세션'(산업별 순차 침체) 관점으로, 기술·반도체 침체는 이미 지나갔다는 해석. 발표자는 중국 경기가 2008년 미국보다 심각하다고 평가. 본인은 해고 증가·은행 리스크에 더 비관적이며, 연준이 BTFP 종료 후 금리 인하 또는 재개입할 것으로 봄. 부동산 멀티패밀리는 조정 후 기회로 봄.
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yeah well look we're about to talk about this time is different with JP Morgan but I just have to say I was reading about Morgan Stanley you all remember the bear Mike Wilson he like pick good growth stocks but not the Magnificent Seven they're going to disappoint so kind of an interesting twist and Jim Kramer has the Jim Kramer six pack which excludes Tesla which I have to say probably one of the most bullish things I've ever heard from Jim Kramer for Tesla JP Morgan just warned that this time is different but the way they said it was is quite different yeah quite literally yesterday I went to a JP Morgan economics event we were invited we're members of the private bank house hack is a customer of JP Morgan uh it's pretty cool it's the Year of the Dragon so they hand out these little Year of the Dragon uh uh envelopes with gold coins in them they're chocolate obviously but uh anyway kind of cool so look they had an economic event we talked to the person afterwards as well that was presenting and I wanted to give some of the ideas so first of all you you have to understand also where their bias is coming from their bias is coming from selling you treasuries which is not necessarily bad advice right now it's probably a good idea to buy treasuries not personalized Financial advice for you because once we get into a rate cut cycle yeah probably yields will fall it's also known that usually after a Fed meeting we see about a 60p point draw down in treasuries and so far we today have a 12.6 Point uh basis point draw down following yesterday seven basis point draw down so so that's already 20 of it so we're already seeing that 10e sitting at 3.84 right now and the 2-year down about 5.5 bips at 4.17 which actually means the inverted yield curve is getting worse but look from the point of view of having a latter treasury portfolio is it probably better than money markets yeah because you might get some capital appreciation and lock in some of those higher yields it's not a bad point of view but what did they warn about the economy and this was the part that was shocking to me because it is an interesting point of view that we don't hear that much right now we hear the binary we're either in a recession or were not I was highly worried about a recession in January of 2022 which is actually the last time I went to one of these JP Morgan events and I'm the person going we're about to be in a recession little did I know we were actually already in a technical recession q1 Q2 2022 both quarters of negative GDP boom technical recession already happened so is it possible the yield curve un inverting is a little late is it possible the inverted yield curve sets us up for the recession we already had in 2022 I mean after all look what the stock market did in 2022 compared to where it is today and we do know historically stocks hit their bottom around the time of a recession but the interesting point of JP Morgan was that we might be in this rolling recession where at the end of 2022 two you've got the technology and chips recession remember when I launched my ETF and everybody was making fun of me for being chips heavy yeah oops chips were great play now you ended up in a freight recession after that massive layoffs and Freight you're still seeing it today you've got UPS laying off 12,000 workers but they're well out from uh their bottom where Freight was in a pretty deep dark recession there from um and bankruptcies as well uh then you get into this manufacturing recession where we're in right now and essentially you have these cycles of everyone this is his argument you have these cycles of everybody during Co makes more money but then coming out of covid everybody has their sort of negative period where it's like we're we're normalizing but everybody has their own little recession and because they're kind of all happening at at at different times you don't have a concentrated recession interesting point because think about it in the do uh uh era technology bubbled up did it really affect real estate no not really what about the Great Recession yeah real estate got destroyed to the tune of 40 to 55% single family was somewhere around 40% 45% certain markets multifam saw about 48 to 54% uh and then condos got smashed even harder not exactly sure why but some probably because of defunct HOAs and problems you get with HOAs managing buildings and insurability and also condo underwriting probably the reason some condos got smashed like 60% evaluations in ' 08 was crazy but point being our real estate crash hasn't arrived yet and even though we expect that multifam is going to go through a pretty big reer writing uh as a lot of multif family apartment buildings are starting to to basically hit their Lan deadlines especially new construction developments where now you've got this flood of new Apartments Apartment rents collaps great potential opportunity to buy that's what we're doing with house Haack we're right now we're in negotiations on a deal with a massive like uh over I mean how how should we put it over eight fig uh defaulted loan and it's like H this is very interesting point is the idea of a rolling recession is potentially propped up by fiscal spending and our debts going ridiculous which means maybe we will be considered to be in a wide recession during all of this time 2022 to 2023 but it'll be this weird long recession we're after the fact we're like yeah we were in a recession all along and it just sort of this petered out ah every Market sort of went through their own little disaster or just no recession which is weird but the fact that we can Define recession after the fact is is the bizarre and scary part now what else was very interesting is comparing what happened in the Great Recession to China this is something else JP Morgan warned about they talked about how our Great Recession in America was based on a bubble in real estate and then a banking crisis as a result of credit derivatives on home loans basically think about it this way if you had a $100,000 home loan you bundle them up with 10 different Home Loans now you got a $1 million portfolio of Home Loans but then people take out credit default swaps and derivatives basic basally on that $1 million home loan package that could be sliced up to a bunch of different investors and now you're actually trading somewhere around uh 10x the value of the underlying loan through a derivatives Market which is just a fancy way of saying the loans were a million bucks now they're being traded on the market at 10 mil so when 30% of these loans defaulted and that you know million dollar loan became 700k you didn't lose 300K you actually lost 3 million and that Amplified or potentially more because derivatives can swing the opposite direction substantially faster uh not necessarily in the same proportion right you might have seen that 10 mil go down to like quite frankly an alignment 1 mil or 700k in value massive losses where you're seeing 90% losses on some of the derivatives so what's interesting about what they brought up with this is they actually compared that to China today and they said that China is way worse that China it's not just housing it's everything now contrarians look at that and go perfect it's the time to buy the dip on China but a lot of folks are like dang that's an interesting comparison that our Great Recession focused on housing and banking is nothing compared to the hell that China is going through where basically every level of the consumer is getting destroyed I mean look at what we had on eack about uh Starbucks so you look at Starbucks they're adding stores like crazy and Starbucks but uh especially in China uh but what are you specifically seeing with uh with comp sales well specifically you're seeing negative comp sales uh in China so the only reason volumes are going up is because you're opening more stores but people were spending less per ticket in China very interesting uh sort of a little measure of what's going on with Starbucks in China but uh more importantly this JP Morgan uh analyst was essentially arguing look every industry is going to go through its recession and we've already seen a lot of Industries bottom out and come out of that recession that explains why we've got the stock market led by Tech at a multi-year high or all-time high frankly because Tech's already gone through its recession now we'll see we got Apple earnings today that'll be interesting Google earnings came out the stock dropped 7% but they actually weren't that bad it just wasn't as optimistic maybe as speculators had hoped you started having a little bit of Miss on ad spend which is a big concern because of AI robbing Google of AI spend but I mean look at the freaking stock who cares it's already green again 85 bips so the meeting all in all I think was fascinating uh because you have this POV of look rolling recession you have China and the do drums and you have really a Fed that in their mind is steering the economy towards the soft Landing now I had problems with hearing you know when when we start comparing ing to other decades hey well what about 1982 hey what about the 1920s and we're comparing to other decades and one of the responses we got was well everything's an exception in this environment you know this the fact that we've got geopolitical issues war with Russia Ukraine uh a pandemic followed by the amount of fiscal stimulus that we've gotten sure we can compare to different periods We compare to post Spanish Flu we can compare to postor War II inflation Korean War uh frankly disinflation there for a period of time and you were below 2% inflation in the ' 50s uh we can uh there are comparisons to the 70s and there comparisons to the 80s but that left me a little concerned because when I hear this time is different and it's okay if you have a long run Horizon to to buy stocks or treasuries and stay away from the foreign markets when things are at all-time highs here I'm like I don't know man I I know but it was an interesting point of view and I wanted to share it with everybody here I don't disagree with rolling recession so I'll give you my opinion now okay that's their opinion now I'm going to give you my opinion I don't disagree with rolling recession I think we're going to see substantially more joblessness uh than than we've seen so far more layoffs I mean even OCTA just laid off more folks today but who knows maybe that's isolated in TCH and and is that really that big of a deal I mean we go to ec.com and and don't get me wrong we want to be sensitive to people losing their jobs but look at at ec.com we threw the uh layoffs chart and we're really not at this highly abnormal level if anything it's sort of like you know oh I'm going to work out I'm going to be healthier in January whatever right it's kind of like you're going to clean Shop clean the business a little bit clean the pipes a bit it's not like we saw in January of 2023 or or the end of of 22 or the mid of of 22 not even close so uh and that's in terms of companies with layoffs is the blue line and then of course you look at the Orange Line for actual employees laid off so rolling session totally agree with I'm a more bearish that we're going to get rapid layoffs and I'm also way more bearish on the banks I'll have another video coming out later on the banks I don't want to go too long here but I I think there are way more issues in the banks that haven't really been flushed out yet and this idea that oh it's just individual banks that are having problems I don't know I think the end of the bank term funding program is going to lead to a big oopsy doopsy daisies when it comes to uh the FED realizing oh crap we don't have the bail out facility they're going to have to open it again I really think they're going to have to open it again or cut rates because if you cut rates then you'll essentially raise bond valuations which should also raise mortgage back security valuations which basically acts as a float uh for these sinking Banks right it's like putting a buoy under the sinking Banks Let's Pretend this cup is a sinking Bank Okay and like default is here like going bankrupt and these banks are like oh my gosh okay underwrote the multif family portfolio at a lower level offices at a lower level okay but what if our underwriting is wrong and it gets worse oh no oh no uh oh no the bank term funding program's gone right and we're getting close to that default level and then what happens fed Cuts rates 25 basis points oh all the bond valuations just got written up oh man that was a close one oh no more defaults more defaults oh fat just cut again it's got to prop up the Ponzi so I don't know it's going to be really interesting but I have to say fascinating meeting I like getting out there physically uh in person with people and hearing their opinions I also uh I mean shout out to what we heard about Jamie Diamond Jamie Jamie Diamond's a big fan of getting out there meeting his people meeting his analyst uh love the meeting yesterday I it's very insightful while I don't agree with every perspective I don't think anybody ever should it's interesting it's a point of view and well- constructed point of view interesting comparison to China and 2008 in America uh and also uh you know obviously motivating but is there a potential buyers risk of course there is uh is there uh you know a play of of going long interest rate sensitives of course but could there be more pain in that my POV yeah potentially and then uh big shout out to the analyst team over there they've got a great crew uh great group of people kind of cool they really put their analyst if you want an internship at JP Morgan hard to get into hard to actually uh stay at JP Morgan and get a lot of work to do but boy it seems like once you're in at JP Morgan you got a good career ahead of you so kind of cool but anyway uh that was uh that was my takeaway and I wanted to share it here let me know what your thoughts are I'm curious and see you the next one y
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