저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 Marc Faber의 최근 비관 전망(글로벌·인도 주식시장 장기 약세, 개미 매수 주도 랠리, 인플레이션으로 실질수익 하락)을 소개하고 그의 과거 예측 적중·실패 사례를 검증한다. 과거 적중 사례로 1987년 약세장과 2008년 금융위기를 들고, 실패 사례로 2009년 미국 초인플레이션, 2012년 글로벌 침체·미국증시 20% 하락, 2015년 금 30% 상승, 2017년 40% 폭락 등을 든다. 영상 진행자는 장기 SIP 투자자는 패닉할 필요가 없고 시장은 과거 위기 후 회복해 신고점을 경신했다고 본다. 교육 목적이며 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
Friends, Marc Faber, the well-known investment guru, has made a very significant and highly negative prediction about the Indian and global stock markets. In an interview with the TV channel, he has predicted that the markets are going to experience a downturn and retail investors should exit the markets at the first available opportunity.
He has also suggested that any upward movement in the market should be seen as an opportunity to exit rather than an investment opportunity. In this video, we will be analyzing the details of his forecast, why he is saying this, how credible his statements are, and how much we should rely on his advice to make investment decisions, and how much we should not.
We will also analyze how accurate and inaccurate his past predictions have been, so let us see what he has said in his In his recent prediction, the main point he has made is first that a prolonged bear market is about to begin globally, including India, which could last for several years. Second, the recent rally in the Indian markets has been driven by retail investors who are uninformed and do not understand the markets.
Their buying has led to the rise in Indian stock markets. His third statement is regarding the US markets. He says that the rally in the US was driven by stocks like Tesla and Avia pushing the Indian market higher. However, the market has now started a downtrend, and stocks like Avia and Tesla have already fallen by more than 30%.
Further, he has specifically advised Indian retail investors to treat any upward movement in the market as an opportunity to exit their investments. Then, he suggests that investors should take their money out of the markets at the first available time. Opportunity also mentions that inflation is expected to rise globally, including India, and as a result, the inflation-adjusted returns for investors will be significantly lower.
For example, if inflation is around 6% and your returns are about 8%, then your real returns are only 2%. And if your returns are 4% and inflation is 6%, then your real returns are actually -2%. Now, let's look at his past predictions that have been successful and have made him so famous. It is important to note that market predictors are always making predictions, and they often take advantage of human psychology.
They might make 100% predictions, and if two of them turn out to be correct, they have heavily promoted them, and the media amplifies them. Human psychology is true, so we remember the predictions that Come true and forget the ones that fail. For example, you might remember Robert Kyo Saki, an investor and author of the famous Rich Dead Poor Dead, who had predicted that the global markets would crash in February, leading to a historic decline.
February has passed, but no such historic crash. The Indian market did fall in February, but only moderately, which is significant compared to the historic declines of 2014 and even 2017. Similarly, he has predicted that Bitcoin would surge dramatically, but Bitcoin's movement in February was just normal.
If any of the predictions had come true, the media and financial sector would have been discussing how Robert Kyo Saki had predicted it, and he himself would have promoted it worldwide. We are discussing all that because in the next section of the video. We will be discussing which of Marc Faber's predictions have been successful and made him so famous, but more importantly, we will also be looking at his true prediction that completely failed, which he made with 100% confidence.
He claims that they would definitely have, but he turns out to be entirely wrong. So, let us first look at two of his predictions that turned out to be correct and made him very famous. The first one is in 1987, in which he accurately predicted the bear market, and his second prediction, which is even more famous, was about the 2008 financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the US, which affected global markets and led to a severe economic recession.
Worldwide, central banks, including those in the US and India, cut interest rates and injected liquidity into the markets through quantity easing, which helped the global economy. The economy recovers from the recession. His predictions turned out to be correct and made him very famous in financial circles.
However, ever apart from this, he has made many predictions that turned out to be completely wrong, which he has made with full confidence. In the next section of the video, we will be discussing those failed predictions. For example, in 2009, after the global financial crisis, he predicted that the policies of central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, would lead to hyperinflation in the US.
That is, the US could end up like Zimbabwe, with prices skyrocketing by 100%, to 200%, and even 1000%. There is no such hyperinflation or in the US. In fact, inflation in the US remained under control, ranging from below 1% to a maximum of 2.5% in the following years. Today, no one talks about this failed production and people.
Another characteristic of Mark Zuckerberg is that he often makes negative predictions. For example, in 2012, he predicted a severe global recession, but instead the global economy grew at a normal rate of around 9%. Similarly, he predicted a 20% decline in the US stock markets in 2012, but the opposite happened; the US stock market grew significantly with a 30% rise in 2013.
This was another failed prediction. Further, in 2015, he predicted that gold prices would rise by around 30%, but instead gold prices failed by 14%. In 2017, he predicted a 40% market crash, but the markets continue to hit all-time highs every year. It's hard to give in to his predictions, and whether you should base your investment decisions on them.
Stay invested in the stock market and should you exit at the first opportunity? The choice is yours. This video only provides a complete analysis of his predictions but the decision is ultimately with you. My view is that if you are a long term investor, particularly through SIP and have a time horizon of 10 years, then there is no need to panic as markets keep on experiencing corrections and ultimately they will recover sooner than later and start scaling new highs.
Markets have recovered from the 1987 crash, markets have also recovered from the 2000 recession and also recovered from the Covid-19 crash and scaled new all-time highs every time. Even if the market falls this time around as well, then they will for sure recover and will start hitting new all- time highs again.
This video is for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation or investment advice. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Comments 0