저자: VijayKedia외패널Govindji,Shyam,RameshDamani등 · 외국인
요약 보기
정보 과부하를 경계하고 핵심 포트폴리오에 집중하라는 메시지. 자본재·산업소모품 관련 2~3년 테마 강세 전망, 소형 자본재 기업 선호. 엔터·카지노·호텔·항공 등 소비 테마는 장기 긍정. MFI·소형금융은 과대평가 가능성 언급. NBFC는 성장 전제가 훼손돼 재검토 필요하다는 입장. 재무보다 경영진·시장 인식 무시 등 정성 요소 강조.
다듬은 글
If only it was that simple in today's day and age, right? How how do you source your information when there's an information overload? What do you believe? What do you not believe? Do you believe research reports or do you do your own, you know, research? I tell you, like smartphone, [clears throat] some smartphone has 512 GB memory, some has 256, some has 28, mine is only 1 GB.
Okay. I keep myself away from all these letters, all those too much of information. As they say, too much analysis leads to paralysis, okay? So, I keep I try to keep things very simple. And earlier when I started my career, what you are talking about, that was way back in 1990. That was that that point of time there was no source of information.
There was no TV, there were no internet, and there was no broker's report, and there were no even books available in the country, right? So, that time we used to get information from the newspaper cuttings only. Or like suppose if they have applied their HR department used to give some ad in the uh magazines that Kemco CEO chahiye, company ka 50 crore ka turnover hai, agle saal 60 ho jayega, 70 ho jayega, something like this.
So, we used to get gather information from that. So, that was a piece of that article which you are talking about. But nowadays, things are available free of cost, everything available on your fingertips. On a smartphone, you get all kind of information, right? So, whatever actually the thing is this, what uh say I learned in 30 years, in today's era, you can learn that in 3 years, in 4 years.
Okay. So, that is another part. Now, since it is so many information are concerned uh are available, actually I keep myself away from all those information. I'm just sticking to my core portfolio. I keep on watching them, I keep on gathering information about all those uh stocks only. Rest of the news, rest of the information, rest of the things are just I just listen from this.
Okay. So, do you react or do you not react to sudden information? Say an auditor resigning, management resigning. Do you Ramesh, how do you how do you deal with it? I mean, if the company is good and there's still some immediate short-term negative news flow, what do you do? We should have basically avoid companies which in which the auditor would resign.
But soon I want to share an interesting story. In 1989 when I started, I was addicted to reading The Wall Street Journal. And at that time, India sold three copies of The Wall Street Journal. There's we are chairman, Ratan Tata, and myself. We are the only three guys getting The Wall Street Journal.
In 1990, I remember reading a small snippet. No Indian company is ever covered by The Wall Street Journal about Infosys, and they were developing a chip called Gamana chip, which would regulate ACs or something. And I was stunned to see an Indian company covered by The Wall Street Journal, and I bought Infosys.
So, sometimes reading really helps because I read that the Gamana chip, by the way, fell out of the way side. It didn't go anything, but the stock, uh you know, as you know, it created history out like. So, you know, reading helps as you know, Vijay says, you read a paper, you read magazine, some thought process generated idea.
You'll get more ideas by just ideating and reading and free thinking than actually reading a research report probably might be. And what about meeting managements? I read in the book that after you met managements 100 times, then you started sending your son to meet managements like NBCC, etc. And he said that I meet managements more than I meet my fiance as well.
Yeah, I kind of pushed him to go a bit more on that companies. You know, clearly it's a family business, so you know, the son is now taking over more of the responsibilities from me. I can sit back and enjoy it like Govindbhai says, uh But you guys still meet as many managements as you did earlier or are now do you you know, resort to sort of second-hand information research?
You know, we we tend to invest in a small and mid-cap universe, so it helps. It's actually productive to go meet management to see if our visions are aligned, if they are thinking the same way. You know, I don't think I can add anything to a lever or reliance or an SBI, but I can add some understanding in a thousand crore company.
So, yes, we do tend to visit them. Okay. Well, since we are running out of time, what we're going to do now is talk about some big themes. Sham, you started off by talking about the capital goods space, right? So, I'm going to just take that forward. You spoke about that being the next big theme. Are you looking at that as a theme over what?
2 years, 3 years, or short the shorter term perhaps? I think over a 2 to 3 year period, you're going to see a lot of action in light evening. You're going to see it in capital goods. I would play it through the industrial consumables. And I think even metals may be a way of playing capital goods because I see a paradigm shift in construction itself.
See, India until now, the primary materials of construction have been of houses and other things has been uh cement and sand. I think going forward, steel is going to become a very very big part in construction. And you're going to have newer building materials. I would think that over 10 years, you will not have walls built the way they built today.
So, you're going to have a different type of walls coming up. So, there I think there's a huge number of themes that you can write out which which would come back to basic industries. So, and capital goods, which I think you can play through engineering products and consumables and various other things.
When I say capital goods, I'm not saying that we should go and buy a Thermax or a BHEL. I think there are a lot of small companies which have very strong competence in that area, and which have which will grow so fast that all their problems of today will just vanish. Like? There are many companies, so I would not like because I may be in the middle of investment action.
So, it's not fair to name a company. But there are many companies in industrial goods, in consumables. Okay. Got it. So, that's a well-known names. Yeah, that's one theme you're looking at. Govindji, what about you? What would be your what over the next say 2 to 3 years, what do you think the big story would be from an investor standpoint?
I think mostly there's going to be a lot of lot of things are going to depend on the international scenario. My my opinion is that there'll be a lot of volatility in the market. So, themes as such capital goods, of course they have to do well if India has to grow at 7-8%. And I think even entertainment sector, casinos and hotels and properties in hill stations and all all that will do very well.
Because the number of working hours going to reduce substantially over period of time. The most of the people then what what do they do? So, and today with the communications, I can sit in Kodaikanal and do the business. I don't have to have buy a property in, you know, proper Chennai. So, and a lot of people will go on holidays.
I think that sector, airlines, all these things are going to extremely well in times to come, you know, because slowly it's catching up. Now, last I traveled a lot the last couple of last 2-3 months, not for stock market work, just playing golf and meeting friends. And I found every flight is full. Every flight is going full.
So, I think this theme will do very well, you know. Casinos and hotels and all these things will do extremely well in my opinion. Okay. Similar to what you spoke about as well, right? This whole entertainment consumption theme. What about you? Actually, I'm fully invested. And secondly, mine is bottom-up approach.
I'm not looking for any theme. So, this is my Atul Auto in your mind? I don't know. Maybe whatever stocks I am holding, some of them will certainly become Atul Auto. So, that's a wishful thinking. Yeah. Okay. Well, we hope you find that very soon. Um Ramesh, any final thoughts? I mean, you spoke about initially we started the conversation and you said that, you know, the big next big theme is going to be this whole consumption, entertainment, and you know, casinos, and alcohol, and all of that.
But that's a theme that you've been speaking about for a while. In the slightly more near term, what would what what's on your mind? My investment thesis follows those. So, gaming stocks, QSR restaurants, cybersecurity, exposure to retail. I think those are the themes that I'm, you know, fairly optimistic over the next 10 years or so.
And these are, you know, long-term calls, so I remain invested there. Okay. Well, we have some time for some Q&A as well. Any question in our any questions that anyone has? Yeah, I think we have someone there. Thank you. Myself Rajiv Shah. I have an hypothetical question. If an investor finds two very good companies, one company's market perception is good, the other company's market perception is not good.
And if you have to select one company, which one will you select? Who would you like this question to be answered by? Everyone here. Okay, everyone. Govindji, you want to take that? Sorry, I couldn't get the question. You want to just uh repeat your question? Uh as an investor, I have selected two good companies.
Uh one company, the market perception is not very good. The other company, the market perception is good, and they understand that the story is equivalent of what you have been thinking. Which company will you invest? Safer thing will be invest 50-50. But you know, having said that, I think market perception is you should not go your your investment should if it is long term, you should not go by market perception.
You go by your own perception and see which can improve which can do better than the other one. You know, it's very difficult to have both companies equal. The market perception is good or bad, it doesn't make much difference. Short term, it does. But in long term, I think a company with a top class quality management and also good price, it can appreciate more than, you know, any other companies.
I will certainly buy the company where market does not have any perception. I will buy 100% that company only. Okay, no expectations, right? But also depends on what the definition of market perception is, right Ramesh? Of course it is. I mean clearly you want to bet with your conviction. I mean where you are convinced the most, put that money on the table.
You know, so I would say where are you are convinced most. Market perception doesn't count at that level. Okay, for forget about what others others think. Absolutely. I mean you know, I don't think market perception should be a driver of investment because it's entirely your own conviction and if at all you're worried about market perception, you you you go deeper and think whether it there is a basis to it and what can change that.
If you want to validate before you go ahead because there's that there's that enough fear that market doesn't like this. What if it remains like this forever? Then it's good to you know, validate it. And if you're not able to validate it yourself, you should always have one or two people who dispassionately tell you what they think about it.
Okay, any more questions? Hello, this is Snehal Dhani. In last two Sorry. In last two three years there was the theme of MFI. The theme of small finance banks and there was a lot of euphoria in the market where very high valuations were given. Then of course the corrections happened. The simple question that I have is how do we see next two three four years ahead for that sector in terms of MFI as well as small finance banks particularly from a capital market investor point of view not anything else.
Thank you. Would you like anybody specific to answer that question? Each of them are equally competent. Okay, Govindji you want to take that? I've not really studied MFI but I think the high valuations in the past you know what were given the valuations may not sustain because today you know, with Jan Dhan accounts, State Bank and all that, they've got so many accounts now.
Couple of crores accounts they've opened. So they may also go and do the small lending also. That's my opinion but I've not studied the company well. I mean not studied the sector well. I think the way the government is thinking of Mudra. If you think the government will be successful in taking Mudra to the next level, you must be very bearish on MFI's.
And personally I think that in India we should move towards creating credit history for the people even at the bottom of the pyramid. That is the real success of governance. Saying that these people are all outside, it's okay to give them 2% interest when they are otherwise getting at 4% interest per month, I think that's not a sustainable model.
One thing that is very clear with respect to all the MFI's is today MFI's are doing every other business except MFI business. They are all over the place and there lies the answer to you whether it's a good sector or not good sector. Somebody who is dis who is you know, loosening his focus is clearly telling you about what is the future in his core business.
Fair point. So don't spread yourself too thin, right? Also some of these companies are doing just that and maybe that may not be a great idea. Any other questions? Yeah, we have actually some at the back there. Go ahead. Yes, you go ahead. Go ahead. Uh so my name is Mangesh Barge. I just want to ask one small question to Mr.
Damani. Uh before start your investment thesis, uh you'll start with the numbers like return ratios and profit profitability or you will start uh investment research on the qualitative terms like management or maybe your ground level research. Uh so uh exactly what you are giving the importance to? Maybe quantitative parameters or qualitative parameters?
Thank you. Uh My number one thing is I look at market cap first and then enterprise value for the business. Occasionally the market will throw you such astonishing bargains like one of the stocks I bought was the liquor industry at 200 crores. I mean the market cap told me that, you know, that how could you possibly get 125 uh you know, crore consumers at 200 I mean you could buy a flat for 20 crores in Bombay and you don't get the entire liquor industry for 100 million dollars US.
So my first the first thing you asked me is I look at market cap. How is the market valuing this company and do I think that it should be worth significantly north of that, south of that or is it fairly valued? So that's the first thing I look at. And then I'll go to ratios, management, all that stuff.
My name is Rahul. My question is to Shyam. Shyam, you were the one of the first person who advised everyone at the peak of NBFC's to book profit down as valuations were going frothy. Now after all this NBFC Island Affairs fiasco, NBFC fiasco, many of the companies have come down in a big way. So have your conception for them has changed?
So I think the a good run when it breaks, you know, it's like form. Like in sports you have form, you know, like if you take the NBFC's they were raising money at will and they were lending money at will, right? I don't see them returning to that steady state anytime soon. Either they'll have problem in lending money at will or raising money at will.
The peak valuations was at a phase when they were getting money very cheap from the mutual funds and they were finding customers who will borrow very quickly, right? I think that premise is not going to come back in quite some time. So which means that the growth story itself now becomes suspect or questionable.
And you have the issue of governance in many of these companies which we ignored earlier which we are now ready to take due cognizance of. In this circumstance, I think you have to revisit your investment premise with respect to NBFC's. You have to go to other financials if at all you want to bet on financials where this intense focus has already come earlier and there's been a lot of clean up, write up, write offs and all that has happened.
I think here none of that is yet to start so you're probably in an early stage of cleansing in NBFC's. So go to somebody who's in a late stage cleansing and see if good fortunes can come to them. I don't see that in NBFC anytime soon. Okay, so Shyam has clearly mastered the art of when to exit even if the sector is doing well, right?
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