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but we're gonna have a giant restructuring of the of the io u--'s and hey what's up guys recently I have been reading and listening a lot of read Dalia's articles and interviews trying to connect the dust together and I might be on something in this video I will give you a quick economic update and then Ray Dalio will explain how we are going to restructure upcoming new economy and what does that mean to you this chart represents the Empire State manufacturing survey which is produced each month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York it provides an indication of how manufacturing activity operate in the state economy the red line represents expected manufacturing activity and the blue line represents real manufacturing activity this day that goes all the way back till 2001 as we see in this chart business activity in New York State plunged all the way down to minus 78 is the lowest level in the history of the survey by the wide margin the expected business activity was at 7 so there is a huge difference between expected and real activity it means major businesses stopped working it's way worse than what we have seen in 2008 housing bubble back then manufacturing activities dropped to minus 33 points right now it's more than double so you do the math let's take a look at another chart on Thursday Labor Department resample new unemployment numbers for last week new additional five point two million people fired for unemployment insurance claim just last week although smaller than six point six million people who applied the week before and the record six point nine million people who applied the week that ended on March 28th the eye-popping job losses in the past month have erased virtually all twenty 2.8 million jobs gained since 2010 as nation rebounded from 2008 Great Recession if you look at the bigger picture for the past 100 years in 2008 session unemployment rate was under 10% in 1980s unemployment rate was slightly under 10 percent the biggest unemployment rate was during 1929 Great Depression it was about 20 percent so economists say that US unemployment rate right now is already over 20 percent according to Alexander brigov Arizona State University and Adam Lind of Virginia Commonwealth University who are tracking the real data in real time it is expected to remain close to 20 percent through the end of the year meaning suing ten people would still be out of work at holidays but you may probably say yeah yeah who cares about unemployment stock market is up it means they're doing something right well not really there is a big difference between stock market and economy you can take of a stock market as a lagging indicator based and what is going on in our economy as Ray Dalio describes the most important driver of economy is GDP growth as of today the total market index is at close to 30 trillion dollars which is about 132 point four percent of the total last reported quarter GDP the US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of minus 0.3 percent estimated from historical valuation of the stock market the US is expected to account for 34 percent of this year decline in the world GDP according to bloomberg calculation let's take a look at recent Ray Dalio interview and why he believes this cycle comes to the end if I can take a minute I'd like to just paint a template for you that takes us you know over the last thousand years the things that have happened over and over again there was one pattern that I'd like to convey may I take a moment and do that absolutely there are four things that are the driving forces of our economy and our lifestyle and wealth and the first and most powerful is his productivity which comes from people learning and inventing and doing things well just as Marco described okay and it grows slowly you know 1 or 2 or 3% a year it grows slowly and it's not volatile because knowledge is in volatile but it grows and that raises our living standards over a period of time then there's a short-term debt cycle the short-term debt cycle is you know recessions and expansions and booms and recessions that that they last about 8 10 years and then there's a long term debt cycle and that long-term debt cycle which goes on about once every 50 to 75 years is when you begin a new type of money and a new type of credit that began in 1945 the new world order at the end of World War 2 what the and with the Bretton Woods monetary system created a new monetary system in 1945 on new money so they wiped out pretty much the old money or they largely disposed of it and they began anew and that's the new world order which was the American world order and we have seen it and still 70 percent of the money and credit that exists in the economy is running by dollars and what you have traditionally is the breakdown and then the fourth influence is politics and politics is largely how we deal with each other can't and and there's internal politics and there's external politics the internal politics is how do you deal with the wealth gap how do you deal with the values gap do you have a common mission do we have an American dream that we can agree on and that we're pursuing that together or do you fight over wealth and and so on and so when you look at history that's what revolutions are in their various ways and there's always a revolution in one of these sometimes those are peaceful revolutions and so sometimes they're disruptive in like and but it's a wealth shift and that needs to take place so in nineteen what Roosevelt shifted policies and James taxes and so on in that way and then in other countries there was that turning over democracy Hitler came to power because of that gap so how people deal with each other internally there's also external politics so that politics means between countries and you have a situation when there's a rising power challenging existing power there is competition and there is a risk of war and so how they deal with each other so that they're whether there's a greater good or whether they are fighting with each other is the defining moment there are always stress tests these big stress tests they come along once about once every four seventy-five years and and when they happen and this is a stress test and I think that what you're going to see is as how we deal with each other there's enough wealth to go around but what do you do when you're outside the ring of support now let's say that of the u.s.
dollar and what what is that going to be like for those entities or if you're within the ring of support how will that bill be divided and how will we be with each other I think we're going to have to reconsider who has what what what is it about education and so on so that's what we're in I think number one productivity growth learning inventing doing things well grow slowly one to three percent per year not volatile raises living standards as I mentioned earlier the stock market is we're about to be growth GDP is expected to drop by more than 30 percent on the second quarter of once it's one see number two shirts from that cycle woman bust last about eight to ten years on average this is what we have seen during 2000 cam bubble and 2008 global financial crisis now this current short-term that cycle is well already you we were in the bull market for more than eleven years number three long-term debt cycle fifty to seventy-five years a new type of money in credit last one began in 1945 Bretton Woods system that's more than 70 years ago considering the fact that Federal Reserve balance sheet is expense exponentially ask u infinity kicked in US dollar will lose its purchasing power more and more rapidly therefore we might be at the beginning of the new monetary system new money and I don't think we're going back to gold number for how we deal with each other domestic and international politics on domestic politics there is a huge wealth gap the top 0.1% of American household hoped the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90% there is no middle class it's a lie you are wealthy or you're poor as simple as that let's take a look at what really has to say about rebuilding new economy these things happen pretty quickly there they last maybe a couple of three years in terms of that process and then you have a rebuilding and they're dealt with with creativity the sort of the greatest force through time is inventiveness human inventiveness adaptability so you're going to see these restructurings happen and you're going to see the kind of inventiveness that you just saw up from Marco okay and it's the power of that adaptation that is the greatest power I did a study which is on LinkedIn if anyone wants to see it and it takes it goes back 500 years and it shows real GDP in other words what economic activity going back there and what end there's a line and you don't see these depressions as we're calling them even on that line they barely Wiggles when you go into it and you look at the that piece that's what it looks like GDP Falls 10 percent unemployment goes up and it passes and because the greatest force is the force of adaptation and inventiveness if we can operate well together so that's what I think it's going to look like over this period of time it'll pass it the world will be very different there'll be a new world order but it will pass and will be invented because what we're dealing with now is just money and credit money and credit is just digital I mean there's no there is real good services you know that those are real but everything else is just accounting and so when you change the digits and you work those things out and you work yourself through that takes you know a couple of years at most kind of and then you come back into a restructured environment and it could be said that it is really healthy in many ways because it is a stress test because if you look at history people have gotten sometimes they get weaker or they're not prepared to in many ways weaker in terms of maybe they don't build enough savings and they operate that or maybe they emphasize luxuries over necessities it's a reorienting type of experience that in many ways makes us healthy even appreciating the basics of life but we're going to have a giant restructuring of the of the io u--'s and we're gonna work out when hospitals our group can go broke because this is terribly costly for hospitals and they will not fully recover their losses hospitals will go broke even though we know that they need them so when you go you have to go entity by entity through this and then you'll go through the process of who will pay so this is not you know some people mistake this as there is a crib iris and the virus may come and go okay maybe we never see it again I don't think that's likely but I mean the people who tell me say not who knows but if it never came back again there will be those who are broke and and and who while I've lost some income we're going to change how we operate and in a way the the supply lines are going to check in other words with self-sufficiency what is self-sufficiency now going to mean do we have enough of this and that we're going to restructure our economy and restructure the financial system in ways that we mean we are not going to go back to the way it was a straight value set the create is forced to rebuild the economy is inventiveness and adaptability in your money new IOU which means I owe you it's basically that creation so if he connected us together it looks like there is a long term that cycle comes to the end which means new monetary system will take place but what is the most innovative thing happened for the past decade take a minute and think about it gold no Bitcoin and blockchain based cryptocurrencies could become become new reserve currency honestly I don't think it's going to happen but in a world of money and credit market there is over Tidy trillion dollars a Bitcoin would take 10% of the entire money market it would be over 9 trillion dollars of market capitalization the same as gold which means 1 BTC would be close to half a million dollars I didn't think measuring in US dollar would even make sense in that point it's better to measure Bitcoin relatively to gold and silver so if you want to be ahead of the curve some Bitcoin in your portfolio would not hurt let me know whether you guys think about Ray Dalio and new economic restructure e did like button and subscribe
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