저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 미국이 부채 과잉, 내부 정치·사회 갈등, 강대국 부상(중국)이라는 세 가지 구조적 변화로 인해 1970년대와 유사한 스태그플레이션 국면에 진입하고 있다고 주장한다. 현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash)이며 채권·부채성 금융자산은 음(-)의 실질수익률이 불가피하다고 본다. 인플레이션 헤지 자산 비중 확대와 4분면 포트폴리오 균형을 권고하며, 금(약 15% 오버레이)을 보험 성격의 자산으로 제시한다. 투자처로는 소득계정과 재정이 건전하고 내부 갈등이 적은 신흥 아시아(인도 등)를 언급한다. 과거 1971년·1933년 사례를 근거로 들며 위기 국면을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
one of the things I learned really 1971 and then repeatedly is that surprises that happened in my lifetime happened to me many cases were for things that didn't happen in my lifetime but happened in Prior lifetimes such as in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange August 15th Nixon sever the relationship between gold and the dollar so essentially defaulting and I walked on the stock exchange I said financial crisis and I would expect it to be down a lot it was up a lot I studied history and found that the exact same thing happened in March 5th 1933 with Roosevelt doing the same thing basically on the radio and then I understood things better so what happened for me over the last number of years is there are three big things that are happening in my lifetime that didn't happen and I actually found with research five so the first is the amount of decreation and monetization of that and how it's carrying through through the system the second is the amount of internal political social economic conflict that is now going on the third is uh the rising of a great power to challenge the existing World Order and the existing world power of China and the geopolitical in which you know when I was born 1949 four years after the New World War to began in 45 and the United States of course was a much more dominant country then had 80% of the world's gold 50% of the world's economy the Monopoly on military power because of nuclear and all of that and it's declined on a relative basis and that led me to do research which I needed to do the last 500 years of research to follow I wanted to study the rise and decline of currencies Reserve currencies and their Empires and I went back and in doing that I also discovered that their acts of nature actually had bigger effects than the first three of those even with the wars because of droughts floods and um pandemics and then number five was the greatest of course is man's capacity to adapt and invent because in one way or another if you look at that per capita income Rises living standards rise over periods of time but these big cycles and these big events are dominant so those are I think almost everything can fall into those five categories you know so that's how I look at it I think that um we're in a period in which there's a supply and demand for debt and credit one man's debts are another man's assets and um that is making us move into a stagflation kind of environment in other words the tradeoffs between the two will become more difficult but I think that number two influence the political is the most important I think we have been used to being in an environment in which economics ruled you know you'd have a global economy and um those who could produce items more efficiently or cheaper would get the business and they would raise their living standards and other places you know there was a global competition largely run by economic considerations and resources would shift that way I think we're now in that doesn't exist as much that way and there's been a transition to an ideological allocation of resources and so on such as you know the um acquisition by Elon Musk of Twitter it's not a financial transaction as much as it is for the purpose it will have controls and when we have the conflicts such as with Disney and D santis in Florida and those political ideologies it's the belief that um economics has got to fall within that agenda that'll have very big implications I think and then of course this external looking at it yearby year this is the third year of the expansion with a very aggressive monetary policy so we're in the part of the typical expansion where there's a lot of inflation pressures because it happened in a giant big way and everybody's long the world it's the end of a paradigm because everybody believes that they want everything to go up and of course that creates a dynamic where policy is long everything goes up and of course that happens by creating money and credit and which creates debt and that dynamic means that you must have uh decline in real wealth measured by that because that's the financial wealth has become enormous relative to the real wealth everybody who's holding bonds or assets particularly the debt assets believes or financial Assets in general which are just journal entries they're claims but they believe that they can take that buying power and sell it and buy goods and services and they can't and by its necessity there must be negative real returns negative returns relative to buying power so if we take it chronologically I think there's the short-term cycle which is usually the business cycle takes you know seven years on average and the give or take depending on where you start the cycle give or take a few years I think we're moving along here quicker so we're now going to be in a very tight environment and that changes everything so when we look at the returns of equities and look at the well-being of companies you see that the cost of Interest relative to the expected returns of equities creates a squeeze on equities changes the economics a lot of borrowing is been done at much lower interest rates and so on the return on equity for a company versus the return uh the cost of debt is changing and all of those are changing and like all bubbles or Paradigm shifts the mentality that did exist we don't have to worry about inflation cash is a safe place and so on gets a shock there's a punch in the face there's been a 40e bull market and there's a punch in the face to the all investors and when that happens things that were never supposed to happen because everybody believes in the tech companies which is the same as the nifty50 or the do companies they get hammered right 75% decline in heywoods funds and so on so forth that causes the adaptation so we're in the beginning of that adaptation that is most similar I think to the 1970s period and um it becomes Financial so I think as we come to the 2020 two elections and that'll have economics and markets has a big impact I think that you'll see greater political extremism coming out of that moderates are leaving and even those are running are populists populists are people who will fight to win and will not accept losing and we'll fight for their constituency so you'll see more populism of the left and more populism the right so if I look at 2023 I look at 2024 and I'm worried about the neither side accepting losing and I think that there's a big risk that the system is in Jeopardy because history has shown when the causes that people are behind are greater importance to them than the system the system is in Jeopardy and those types of things change the world landscape I'm emphasizing the United States and certainly Europe is in that type of a position so I think that when I look at it it'll be very important to not only diversify well but to be able to be long and short different assets in order to perform well in that environment my main things are First Cash is trash and that there's in bonds and debt it's not going to be good and the claims of financial assets so either avoid those or position yourselves so that when those things operate and position yourself for inflation so there are lots of Investments pertaining to inflation and the big commodity Cycles are reactive there's a giant just like the 40-year bull market and bonds Associates with a commodity cycle where everybody adapts to that companies don't hedge inventories are drawn down there's less investment in those things when that switches switches to that kind of an environment and the big overarching thing is that the amount of Financial claims that exist there's charts that I repeatedly show when I deal with the changing World Order what is the amount of financial claims assets relative to real assets and you could see that through history when those Financial claims it's like a a bank has too many IUS on its real money and that thing then you always get into these environments where it's undesirable to own the debt and you have negative real returns and so to position one's portfolio in a tilt that way but of course the way that we do it is to separate Alpha and beta right so two parts s core because we're all talking tactical how do you create a truly well-balanced core portfolio and we know that the typical well portfolio is not well balanced with its greatest vulnerability being in that upper right quadrant in our box which is the inflation box and we know that we're in that environment so from a starting point of view I would encourage all investors to look at those four quadrant box that box that we have Rising inflation falling inflation Rising real growth relative to discounted falling real growth relative to discounted and see what the biases are in those portfolios I believe that now you can simultaneously reduce risk and raise returns reduce risk of that portfolio by having more in that upper right quadrant Rising inflation and you will reduce your risk because if you look at your portfolio typical investors portfolio that is the environment that is missing so you start with that how do you get more neutral how do you get better balanced and you cover yourself from that exposure and then you make your Tactical moves around it and the Tactical moves again should not be in those debts it should be very well Diversified I think that the social and political conflicts are going to be a big investment thing coming forward and so that'll mean the way I look at it is I want to look at places that have good income statements and banies so I say places I mean countries as well as individuals that make up those countries the individual people and the individual companies so do they have a good income statement Financial stability they have a good balance sheet so that they can weather those things and also it's a sign of their productivity are they productive and then number two are they civil with each other I really do believe that internal conflict and bad finances are going to be defining characteristics of where to invest or even where to be and then if I carry that forward to the the third am I going to have in risk of being in a international War an important International War because that International war will raise lots of threats so I want when I'm picking those locations I want to be the inflation hedge assets well Diversified look to parts of the world that are not as plagued with this so emerging Asia is very interesting India is interesting look at neutral countries during that period of time watch out for government controls on Capital markets because that's the logical Next Step history has shown that watch out for foreign exchange controls could be watch out for those things so those are the themes that I think are most important and will be most important in investing there are two purposes of a currency which is a medium of Exchange in a storeold of weal and we're living in a world where we have three major currencies are Fiat currencies with the same kind of problems so you can't look at one currency in relationship to another I think people make a lot of mistakes of thinking you know it's an ugly contest the questions that we're going to be in is storeold of wealth okay what is your storeold of wealth and a money is a storeold of wealth that also is widely accepted in other countries so that you can move it around it's not just limited to currencies don't think that Medium of exchange is the only important thing so think about the stor of wealth that's when we deal with the quadrant you know the four pieces to try to find a balanced storeold of wealth and then you have to think can I move that and sell that anywhere am I going to have the free Capital markets to do that or are they going to be a problem and I think we are entering a period where all currencies the traditional medium of exchange type of currencies are going to a lot of currencies will compete what will be the medium in which I could take something and go someplace else and cost effectively convert that into buying okay the medium of of exchange I think we're in a storeold of wealth issue in other words focus in on that and then okay your transaction cost of converting that storeold of wealth a balanced portfolio into buying power and then you transact because even in the worst inflations the worst environments the currencies most of the time still could be mediums of exchange even though they're devalued so I encourage people to think about bad Fiat currencies generally and what the liquidity is and think about even what capital Wars look like gold as a overlay on a portfolio on top of a portfolio works like an insurance policy gold is a debt asset it just sits there but it's always through characteristics that are limited in Supply one of the most important things it's the third highest Reserve currency held by central banks and in periods of time of war or such periods of time of credibility it is the medium like they say it's the only asset that you can have that's not somebody else's liability that means you have to be dependent on them giving you it they're giving you money or they're giving you something and it is international it can be moved and it's tried and true in that regard but its behavior is in very environmentally specific so as a hedge asset it's really like a great insurance policy because when the other assets go down and so something like that or the equivalent plays a role in a portfolio not as the core asset but as the effect of diversification of asset and that's if you do it as an overlay it's about 15% of the portfolio not taking away assets from other parts of the portfolio but I come back to my Basics which is the four quadrants you know the Timeless and Universal the one thing that you could be sure of is that cash will not be the best asset class and when you diversify to a portfolio so you got a well balanced portfolio of other things it will outperform cash because it's the nature of the system people you know the Central Bank puts money on deposit people with better ideas come along take elements of risk and it works it works better than the traditional portfolio in the down moves by a lot like when the market goes down 60% or so the worst cases are like 20% maybe a little bit over than that and it never stays there because central banks can't let capitalism which is dependent on those other assets performing a high return than cash can't let that continue so they come in there and they produce money in credit and it produces the pop
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