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think about it logically so what are we doing with the sanctions so biden and other leaders are telling americans hey russia's got gasoline that you need and food that you need but you can't buy it from them anymore we're not going to allow you to buy these goods from russia so you got to buy the goods someplace else well now we have to pay more because now there's all this demand from you know the other sellers they have much higher prices now because we've eliminated all the supply that was coming from russia so americans end up paying a lot more for those goods that the u.s government won't let us buy from russia but now think about it from russia's perspective russia still has all their oil they still have all their food that's now way more valuable because we've caused the price to go up and now they're able to sell either illegally on black markets or to other nations that are still trading with russia they're actually still able to sell their oil and their food they just get a higher price for it than they were before so russia may be winning from the sanctions and it's americans it's europeans who are losing so i i think that like most things the government does it typically backfires like when the government creates an anti-poverty program you end up with more poverty not less and so by sanctioning russia we're probably going to end up helping russia and hurting ourselves especially by highlighting to the world the dangers of using the us dollar as the reserve currency and so we may have just hastened the demise of the dollar as a reserve currency which means we accelerate the collapse of our own economy let's say because of the sanctions um a product that russia was selling went from one dollar to three dollars and so now the market is three dollars and it's really expensive and now under the table you know illegally russia says hey you know we'll sell you this stuff for two dollars right you can get it for a big discount to the three dollars there are gonna be people who will illegally buy that stuff because they're saving so much money paying two dollars but at two dollars russia still gets double what they were getting before the sanctions so russia wins you know and everybody else loses as a result of those sanctions so you know that that's how i think this ultimately plays out last time i looked the ruble was higher than it was when the war began and the sanctions were announced now initially there was about a 40 percent decline in the ruble and president biden was bragging about how much value the ruble lost well the ruble has recovered all of that lost value and then some now the ruble is still a lot lower than it was a year ago so it's not like we have a strong ruble but it has strengthened recently and i believe that that is a trend that's going to continue and right now the dollar has been very strong against a lot of other currencies in particular the euro it's not wasn't just a ruble but i think that dollar strength is eventually going to reverse as well i think the dollar is going to come under a lot of pressure when the markets realize that the fed is bluffing about its ability to fight inflation uh and that when the markets you know figure that out uh and and the fed is ultimately for forced to reverse because of the weakness and the economy and the markets i think the dollar is going to tank across the board including against the the ruble and now that putin has kind of fixed how much gold uh the central bank of russia is willing to buy priced in rubles if we see a very weak dollar in terms of rubles that will put a lot of upward pressure on the price of gold because a lot of russian banks will be buying gold that they can turn around and sell to the uh russian government at a profit and the strength in gold will also accelerate the decline of the dollar and and feed the whole process well i look at gold as money as a store of value not as an investment per se like you invest in stocks or real estate you hold on the gold to preserve value because it doesn't throw off a return like stocks or or real estate do people don't really understand the degree to which the american economy is dependent on the dollar and its uh role as the reserve currency you've often heard the us economy described as a service sector economy right we're we're all about services well where do we get all the stuff then because we certainly consume a lot of stuff americans are you know incredible shoppers i mean we have an insatiable plan to buy stuff right so but if we have a service sector economy where's all this stuff coming from that we're buying well it's coming from china and other countries well how do we pay for it we don't we just print money you see under a normal economy if we didn't have the reserve currency we would either have to produce stuff for ourselves or produce stuff for our trading partners to trade with them for the stuff they produce but we don't have to produce anything we just print money and the rest of the world takes the money we print for the stuff they make and so we have a much higher standard of living because we get to consume all this stuff that we didn't have to produce so we didn't really pay for it but when the dollar loses its status then the rest of the world isn't going to want dollars anymore they're going to want stuff and so if we want their stuff we're going to have to make some stuff of our own to give them and we can't do it because we don't have the factories we don't have the savings to create the factories we don't have the supply chains we don't have the skilled labor we don't have anything that a manufacturing economy needs because we're no longer a manufacturing economy i mean we manufacture a little but not nearly enough to satisfy our demand so what would have to happen if the dollar was no longer the reserve currency is american spending would implode consumption would collapse because we'd have nothing to buy and so our entire gdp would implode we'd have a massive recession because americans wouldn't be buying anything because we couldn't afford anything and all the shelves would be empty because foreigners wouldn't be sending us the stuff that they produce and we don't have the capacity to produce it for ourselves the only way to avoid that would be for the us government to act fiscally responsible but that's never going to happen in fact as long as the dollar is the reserve currency we have no incentive to be fiscally responsible so that's the the problem here we're going to keep on doing this until there's a crash because the only thing that will stop it is a crash because we won't voluntarily you know face the music because you know it's it's so politically damaging to the people in power to do that so and i also think that a lot of people in in the us including at the fed just take for granted the dollar's reserve currency status i mean they don't think that we could ever jeopardize it that no matter how much money we print no matter how much our deficits are the rest of the world is just going to go along for the ride and i think they believe that because they've gone along so far and you know it's we've gotten away with it this long and so the belief is we'll get away with it indefinitely and i think that hubris is is going to have a big price because that's not going to be the case and i also think that um the fed and the us government have underestimated the degree to which that reserve currency status is so you know integral to the entire bubble economy that we have our whole service sector economy that's the linchpin you pull that out and everything implodes it was taxes and regulations that made the u.s uncompetitive relative to the rest of the world and then it was going off the gold standard and going on a dollar standard where once the dollar was the reserve currency the rest of the world needed dollars and how did they get dollars well they sold stuff to americans and so we basically outsourced our entire economy and in the short run we benefited because the cost of production was lower overseas than it was in the u.s especially because american companies had to deal with high regulations high taxes labor unions all sorts of other things that ran up the cost of production that foreigners didn't have and of course you know a lot of the regulation the labor laws the environmental laws i mean these other countries didn't have to deal with that and so they didn't have to bake the cost of complying with those regulations into their their labor call into their price of their goods and the wages were already you know much much lower in the other country so americans got a good deal we traded our jobs for stuff and we did that for decades but you know we can't do it anymore because we now have so much debt and wages around the world have increased to the point where there's not a big arbitrage left anymore between labor costs outside the us and labor costs inside the united states um and and foreigners don't want to you know play this game anymore they have too many dollars uh they have too many us treasuries and we're making that apparent uh by you know flexing our muscles with these sanctions uh so uh you know i think that we've reached the end of the road here on this game and you know when we experience the the true consequences of what's happened because you know we've been living on credit cards and borrowed money and imported goods and we don't realize how drastically things are going to change for the worse when we can't rely on those things anymore those lifelines are going to be gone
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