저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 진행자는 공매도한 ACIA가 추세선 이탈로 하락했다고 자평하며, 차트 기반 단기 매매 관점에서 CMG·GPRO·TWTR·TSLA·NFLX·IBM을 다룬다. ACIA: 46달러에서 43.72달러까지 하락, 추세선 이탈로 숏 수익 실현 후 일부 보유 중. 추세선 반응 횟수가 많을수록 중요하다는 기준 제시. CMG(치폴레): 단기적으로 하락 후 310~312달러 구간에서 반등을 기대하며 매수 관점. 박스권 돌파 재테스트, 50일 이평선, 피보나치 되돌림 등이 근거. 실적 발표 전 보유는 자신 없어 피하겠다는 입장. GPRO(고프로): 850~865달러 지지 구간에서 매수, 1050~1090달러 저항에서 숏이 유리하다고 봄. 중간 구간은 데드존으로 판단. TWTR(트위터): 거짓 돌파 후 하락 흐름, 추세선 아래로 이탈. 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 1830달러 위 회복 전까지 롱은 불리. 1835달러 돌파 시 롱 재진입 고려. TSLA(테슬라): 삼각형 돌파 후 목표가 달성했으나 다시 추세선 아래로 이탈. 단기 상승 후 368~370달러 부근 저항에서 거절될 가능성을 제시하며 숏 관점. 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림과 추세선 재테스트 일치를 근거로 듦. NFLX(넷플릭스): 실적 발표 후 역망치형·행잉맨 등 반전 캔들과 대량 거래로 하락 확인. 189~190달러 지지선 미검증 상태로 추가 하락 가능성 언급. IBM: 146달러 이상 유지 시 상승을 전망했고 해당 추세선에서 반등 후 상승 확인. 회원 가입 유도 발언 포함. 리스크: 실적 발표 전후 변동성, 추세선·지지선 이탈 시 손절 기준 중요성 강조. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 CMG 단기 반등, TSLA 단기 상승 후 하락, NFLX 추가 하락, TWTR 1830달러 저항 재확인 전까지 약세로 봄.
다듬은 글
CIA and a CIA we've been pointing out was likely gonna head lower so we went from 46 dollars all the way down to about 43 72 so nice little drop there on this stock very very nice action for this stock and in fact we profit it nicely we took some profits on our short today near the lows we're still holding some of that position but it's always good to take some profits along the way so we're in the green on that trade so and we've been posting these public videos for you saying that a CIA was likely gonna head lower so congrats if you've been following along and if you didn't follow along well now you know that you should be following along watching these videos joining the membership learning as much as you can to trade more profitably alright so the reason we like a CIA for a short just to kind of review in case you didn't watch the last videos we've done on a CIA we liked it for a short because you can clearly see there's a trend line here that a CIA is real acting to so anyone can draw a line on the chart anywhere on the charges going boom okay and that's a trend line well what matters is if the stock is reacting to that trend line okay and the more times you see a reaction off that trend line the better that trend line is and the more important holding that trend line is because the more important that trend line is to the stock and how many times it's bounced means that if it doesn't hold it on that next time that means it's likely going to head lower that's exactly what happened here we broke below that trend line there you can see we went down more than two dollars on this stock so again congrats if you've been following along and we're going to move on to the next stock so the next stock is Chipotle and Chipotle you can clearly see we got a little bit of a an ugly candle today and I think in the very short term it's going to head lower but I like it for a bounce against about somewhere around 310 to 312 all right I like for a bounce there because we have a couple of things going on here we have some support from this box break right here you can clearly see we broke over this box right here we had it higher we made a new high over all these highs all right and now we're coming back into that level and then levels right around where that 50-day moving average is as well as well as where the 60 1.85 an actor were tracing the level you can see that right there if you draw it from this low to this high and that gives us that which is right where the moving averages are the 50-day in the 20-day as well as a retest of this trendline you can see that we broke over started here rejection there rejection here we'll finally broke over it so that be a retest of moving averages the Fibonacci retracement level as well as the retrace of this trendline as well as a touch back of the support so if we get down to about 3:10 to 3:12 I think that Chipotle is going to get amounts there as far as through earnings to me you know I don't really like to hold through earnings unless I'm really confident on that direction of the trade and to be honest I'm not confident on Chipotle through earnings just because there's a lot of other factors that you know I'm not an expert on and that's that's how you make money in the market that's how you make money regardless of your profession is you got to know your strengths you got to know your weaknesses and my strengths is not knowing where Chipotle is going to go through earnings so I'm going to take a step back and let it do it let it do its thing without me in that position but as far as up until earnings I like Chipotle for a bounce off of these levels so if you're a short-term trader especially an options trainer like we do a lot of options training at the training analyst and this is going to be a great buying opportunity down here and you're about 310 to 312 the next one to take a look at is GoPro and GoPro again like we mentioned yesterday it was an ideal place to cover shorter I don't know if it was yesterday or the day prior on Monday that we did the last video on GoPro but regardless we had mentioned that you know the shortened opportunity was kind of running its its term and we said that because we've been calling for a short ever since GoPro had this false breakout right here I'll just kind of review really quickly why would I go pro for a short we had this resistance there there's the look like okay maybe it's finally time that GoPro is going to break out but then we ended up breaking back below this resistance point right there and that ended up confirming that this was a false breakout right there on this day you said the GoPro was going to head lower and we headed lower our target was right here around the highs of this day right here for that gap we filled that right there on this day that's when we said you know the risk versus reward of being short right here is really not the best and so obviously we got that bounced there as far as you know trading right here as far as Schwartz or Long's to me anywhere in between here to me is kind of the dead zone I like it for a short against you know these resistance point anywhere above 1050 and I like it for a long down here at about 875 all the way down to $8 so there's a lot of support below us and I think that it's a really good buying opportunity down here near about 865 so another reason to there gotta bounce there are several balances on both of those areas right there and it's also a support level you can see we balanced right there and it was previous resistance right here just a lot of sideways trading in this area between 865 and $8 and I highly doubt that we're gonna break through those levels anytime soon so if we get down here it's a great buying opportunity again it's a great short against 1090 you know I really I'm showing how unbiased I am on this stock I don't care about GoPro whether it goes to $100 and whether it goes to zero all I care about is making money on the movement of the stock and that's the way that you got to be if you want to make money in the market you can't have any kind of bias on on this stock and that's exactly what we're doing here on GoPro because we're shorting the highs we're getting long the lows there with some great risk vs.
reward the next one to take a look at is Twitter and Twitter today really not great price action you know w made a little high right here held over it here kind of held it yesterday but today we ended up closing back below it and if you recall I'm gonna go back to GoPro similar set up you know not as as big of a level here on Twitter that we saw on GoPro but nonetheless this is the same setup you know we break over this resistance and then we break back below here and then as you can see it headed lower right there I don't think that the move is going to be as violent with Twitter as GoPro was could go purlin from you know 1090 all the way down to what was at about eight seventy five or something like that so that was a pretty big loss I don't think that Twitter is is gonna get as violent I think that we've got a lot of behind opportunities down here we've got a trend line started right here gotta bounce here gotta bounce here gotta mounts here and then to me if we do head lower which I do think that it's likely that we're going to do because of this false move over this level that if we do head lower that's a good buying opportunity and look what else is there the 50-day moving average that red line as well it's gonna act as a support and I just took it back here because I think that I can draw this trendline not really okay well it's still a really good trendline and just thought that maybe I could extend it to that low and that would make it an even stronger trendline but I couldn't let's still great buying opportunity against that support level but as far as right now to me the risk versus reward does not favor Long's and if we do pop back over about 1830 over the highs of today highs in today 1835 we break today's highs then we can get back long but to me right here is a good stop out point that I would personally be using well that's I were trading this stock from a short-term bas like we mentioned here and was likely going to head higher and then delete that and I'm gonna draw it again later I'm gonna show you exactly what it was but right now I just want to have a clean looking chart so we mentioned that GoPro I'm sorry Tesla was likely going to break over this resistance and that's because it was holding high and tight against that resistance level right here and as you can see it paid off nicely today I think that it's kind of had higher but yeah if you recall last time we broke over this resistance point we did so with a big bullish candle right here big gap up big strong candle big volume as well but this time we're just kind of barely picking our head over it right here not the strongest looking candle obviously we're still above that resistance so it's still bullish I think it's going to have higher here in the short term but as I've been pointing out here we're below this trendline starter back here you can see started here got several bounces there got amounts there right here here's a bounce there's the bounce and then we'll broke back below it right here alright to me that's not a great sign you know especially after we see this big triangle breakout which in fact that we call for a long right here and then we hit our target up here and you're about 390 and after that target was hit we obviously headed lower but that doesn't matter because our target was already hit so now we're back below this trendline to me I wanted this breakout here to kind of hold and hold against this trendline and kind of build up maybe sideways maybe a little bit higher but right now to mean this isn't a theist action and as far as rejection points it's going to get rejected short term I think it's gonna head higher I think it's gonna add higher here in the very short term but once it does have higher into that trendline retest and it's going to get rejected and if you draw a Fibonacci retracement level from the highs here to the lows here right there look at where that's sixty one point eight see the sixty one point eight of an accurate racin level right here look at where it lines up with perfect retest of that underside of the trendline to me that's a great short an opportunity that levels riding around about 368 to 370 is going to be that rejection point that we're looking for I think it's going to be rejected there and then eventually had lower it's really got to prove itself at these levels here because we broke these levels broke that trendline we obviously bounced here pretty decently but again I think it's just going to retest here and then eventually had lower after that so we'll see what happens with Tesla the next one is Netflix and Netflix like we pointed out the other day a Netflix was likely going to head lower and we're seeing that today we saw a nice move lower here on Netflix I think it's going to head even lower than where it's at right now just because you know we had earnings yesterday and you can see the reaction to it was was not great we had an inverted hammer right here on some heavy volume you can see the previous day was with some heavy volume as well with a hanging man candle both of these are potentially reversal candles and obviously we're seeing that confirmation today another reason I thought that Netflix was going to head lower is because you know we had our chance to break out on earnings and if you can't break out on earnings then there's nothing really that's gonna push you higher until you know potentially the next earnings that that will come up so that's what you kind of want to look for the reaction to the earnings was it positive was it not positive and obviously we got basically a neutral reaction to earnings because you know it wasn't some huge red day but it did so with heavy volume with a reversal candle near these highs and I do think that will continue to the downside we do have a lot of support below us though so just be aware that we've got support down here about 189 190 there over right here and that has remained untested so if we head into this level we could get some kind of bounce and you definitely want to be aware of that moving forward the next we're going to take a look at is IBM and IBM if you've been following along in these videos we like IBM for higher prices as long as we stayed above about 146 and we did that so here's this trendline that we had drawn and see we got a bounce there got a bounce here and here we are look at where we bounce from just before earnings we doji right here at this trendline and at rading four days straight against it and then we broke over it here so turn into support we bounced huge off of this level and really nice move as you can see in response to that trendline there and we had it higher so congrats you guys if you follow along with these videos that's why it's really helpful to watch these videos and even more helpful to join the membership because then you're going to ge
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