저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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연준 6월 회의는 매파적 발언이었으나 실제로는 금리를 동결(휴지)한 것이며, 곤들락은 연준의 금리인상 경로가 혼란스럽고 경기는 이미 침체 신호가 많아 추가 인상은 없을 것으로 본다. 연준 발언 분석: 파월 의장은 7월 회의가 확정되지 않았다고 했지만 여전히 연말까지 약 2회 추가 인상(중간값 5.6%)을 시사해 매파 기조가 유지됐다. 곤들락은 발언은 매파적이었으나 행동은 아니었다고 평가했다. 연준 예측 신뢰도: 2년 전 연준이 2023년 말 금리를 50~75bp로 예측했으나 실제와 450bp 차이가 났다며 연준 전망의 낮은 적중률을 지적했다. 금리 전망도 5% 이상 유지론과 2.5%론이 엇갈린다고 말했다. 경기 지표: 노동시장은 고용은 늘었으나 평균 근로시간이 크게 줄어 실질 산출 측면에선 강하지 않다고 봤다. M2는 수십 년 만에 최대 감소(전년비 마이너스), 선행지수는 최근 6개월 연율 -8%, 장단기 금리차(2s10s)는 1년 이상 역전 후 100bp 추가 역전, ISM 신규주문과 제조업 PMI는 침체 영역, 서비스 PMI는 50.3으로 둔화. 실업률 판단: 실업률이 12개월 이동평균을 넘었지만 36개월 이동평균에는 아직 못 미쳐, 이 지표가 36개월선을 넘으면 침체 신호로 본다. 금리 전망: 연준이 25→50→75→50→25→0bp 패턴을 보이며 인하 쪽으로 가는 추세라고 보고, 앞으로 추가 인상은 없을 것이라고 예상했다. 회의 평가: 이번 회의는 역사상 가장 예측하기 쉬운 회의 중 하나였으며, 금융 스트레스와 은행 파산 이후 긴축 여건을 상쇄하려는 매파적 메시지였다고 해석했다. 출연자는 곤들락이며 사회자 발언은 제외했다.
다듬은 글
Cameron Dawson of New Edge is here now as well we'll turn to her first so what's the story well the statement was that's where hockey that little window in the press conference where Powell wasn't necessarily the most hawkish he's ever been he didn't play The hawkish Greatest Hits instead he talked about how yes July is a live meeting but certainly wasn't committing to it and you certainly saw the market sort of take that with the interest rates kind of coming off of their highs for the day stocks rebounding but I think the reality here is that the FED still sees a lot more work to be done and that their job fighting inflation simply is not done yet you're King off what some have been talking about that he went out of his way some are suggesting to to say July isn't predetermined and at that moment maybe the stock market took some comfort in that but it may be short-lived we'll just have to watch and see it certainly seems that way it's interesting to have so much unanimity about the need for more hikes and yet say that July wasn't necessarily going to be an absolute now they always talk about wanting to remain very data dependent so that's very par for the course but the fact is they're still guiding for effectively two more hikes this year to get to that 5.6 median rate yep let's bring in Jeffrey gunlock right now he's the CEO CIO and co-founder of double line Capital with us as always on this fed day Jeffrey it's good to see you um Steve leesman as I said at the outset here described this as very hawkish Rick Santelli said hawkish times 10.
what was your take it was definitely hawkish in the rhetoric but obviously wasn't hawkish in the action it's the pause it's uh I feel like the FED is getting kind of Mr Magoo like again where the last meeting it was a uh hike but it was called a dovish hike and now we've got a hawkish pause I wonder what the mix will be in the July meeting because it seems like the unanimity of opinion that we need more rate hikes has been made clear but the path of rate hikes is all over the place I'd like to remind people that the FED has had a bad record of forecasting where the FED funds right is going to be and Jay Powell to his credit pointed that out at the end of his press conference it's interesting to notice that two years ago the forecast for the FED funds rate at the end of 2023 was 50 to 75 basis points was the median Dot Plot so they missed by 450 basis points and even more if they continue to hike which I don't think they're going to do so we seem to have some type of people thinking that rates are going to stay above five for years and some other fed people think it's going down to two and a half so as of a couple meetings ago Jay seemed to have the duck solved in a row everybody was in agreement and now it's it's like he's trying to herd cats again and he's doing the best he can but I don't understand all of this talk about this strong economy there are so many indicators that are deeply in recessionary territory and people talk about the strength of the labor market and there's been many months of Beats on that but the most recent labor market report which was touted as being very strong was not strong there was a growth in jobs but there was a of significant decrease in average average hours worked and if you take the product of those two number of jobs times average hours worked you kind of get economic Egret output and yes jobs went up but the hours worked felt enough that if hours worked had stayed this same the product of of jobs times hours worked to get to the product that we're at you would have actually had a loss of jobs if hours worked had stayed stable to get this amount of output you would have had more than a hundred thousand jobs lost so that's not really that strong and I don't really understand why the FED is kind of making the same I think mistake that they made a year and a half ago but in Reverse they're not looking at the high frequency data there was a lot of quick commentary after the statement which was a hawkish statement and I think Steve leesman did a nice graphic where he was acted like he was driving a car but looking backwards I think that's a riff on my Mr Magoo theme and I agree that that's what's happening here if you look at real economic indicators there are more of high frequency they're really bad I mean M2 is negative at a level year over year that hasn't been seen in decades leading indicators are negative eight percent over the last six months annualized in the last year the yield curve has been inverted for a long time and is inverted by 100 basis points further twos tens over the past year uh ISM new orders are in deeply recessionary territory ISM Manufacturing PMI is massively recessionary and even Services has given up the ghost going down to 50.3 on the services ISM PMI I'm really hard pressed to find an indicator that's really strong and you can tell me it's employment but the thing that I just referenced about the aggregate product but also the unemployment rate has peaked its head above its 12-month moving average not by a lot but it's above its 12 month moving average now it's not anywhere close to its 36 month moving average which is an absolutely lead pipe cinch if it crosses that during a recession that's still up at about five percent but when you think of the three three thirty six month moving average that's three years so three years ago we're talking about the depths of the pandemic and unemployment just fell off you know spiked tremendously and now has come back down so that's going to be falling precipitously so I don't think the fed's going to hike again I think we've got a trend in place here Scott it went 25 then 50 then 75 for a while then 50 then 25 then zero I don't know maybe I'm just a mathematician or something but I see a trend here and I don't think the fence is going to be raising interest rates again I tweeted that out after right after the last meeting one thing about this and then I'll stop and you can probe further one thing about this this is one of the most uh easy to predict fed meetings of all time I almost feel like we're back four years ago when every meeting you knew they weren't going to raise rates I think it was universally believed that this would be a pause and that this would be a hawker statement to try to offset the the you know the the the the complication of having a financial stress with you know conditions tightening and three bank failures while inflation is still is still somewhat sticky
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