Warren Buffett Is Dumping Apple Stock

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버핏의 애플 지분 매도 소식에 대해 개별 투자자가 맹목적으로 따라 팔 필요는 없다고 주장. 버크셔 포트폴리오 내 애플 비중은 약 49%에서 40%로 하락했지만 여전히 최대 보유 종목. 애플은 최근 분기 매출 907억 달러(전년比 감소), 순이익 236억 달러로 감소, 중국 매출 감소가 최대 리스크, 아이폰 매출 감소와 혁신 부족을 지적. 자사주 매입 1000억 달러 발표, 선행 PER 25.6배로 적정 가치 수준으로 평가.

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01. Warren Buffett the Oracle of Omaha arguably the greatest investor of all time recently announced that he was selling some of his shares in Apple stock that's creating a panic among Apple stock investors asking if they too should sell Apple's stock I'll address that question in this video looking at it from several different perspective despite the sales Apple remains birkshire Hathaway's biggest holding representing about 40% of its portfolio which had a total value of 335 billion at the end of the quarter at the end of 2023 the portfolio was valued at 353 billion with apple representing about 49% of the portfolio's value so what's happening here is Apple's value from the end of 2023 to the end of the first quarter of 2024 decreased inside the birkshire Hathaway portfolio from roughly 50% to roughly 40% still consisting a large portion of the overall portfolio I've been highlighting that having half of your portfolio in just one stock is a very big risk you're concentrating your portfolio in just one stock Finance Theory suggests that you should diversify your portfolio among 20 to 40 stocks that way you get the benefits of reduced risk while maintaining the return expectations I've said Warren Buffett does it but that doesn't mean the rest of us should do it Warren Buffett like I highlighted is one of the best investors of all time it's one of those situations where it's like don't try this at home right I'm doing it because I'm a master it I'm referring to Warren Buffett he's doing it because he's a master at the craft that doesn't mean we should all be doing what he's doing because 50% in one stock too much risk in my opinion so I also highlight that investors like Warren Buffett they have many reasons for why they're investing in a stock it's not always because they feel that the stock is under valued there are other reasons strategic reasons for which one of which could be that when you own such a large percentage of one company and when you have billions hundreds of billions to invest you can influence that company you can have influence over that company you can suggest someone to the board of directors you might want to have someone on the board of directors or two people and you can do that if you own a significant portion of one investment and therefore concentrating your investment in one company gives you a lot of power for your money that could be one reason why investors like Warren Buffett hold these types of positions now I'm not saying that's why Warren Buffett is doing it in this case but it's just one reason one example of investors choosing to invest in a company not just because they think it's undervalued and I think a lot of retail investors get the misconception that when someone like Warren Buffett or Kathy Wood or Bill Amman or Ray Doo or any of these well-known investors when they buy a stock it's because they think it's undervalued and that's far from the truth that's rarely the only reason why these investors invest in a stock there's other strategic implications and that's why I suggest investors should not follow these other investors into a stock just because Warren Buffett bought it doesn't mean you should buy it just because Warren Buffett sold it doesn't mean you should sell it you should look at these companies on your own do your own due diligence and come to a conclusion if you think the stock is a buy or a sell not withstanding what Warren Buffett is doing so let's take a look at Apple right let's evaluate for ourselves and undoubtedly Apple stock has come into some challenges revenue is the declining Revenue in the latest quarter fell to 90.7 billion down from 94.8 billion in the same quarter the prior year Apple's iPhone difficulties have been highlighted especially in China where competition is rising to take market share net income is also falling 23.6 billion in the latest quarter down from 24.1 billion in the same quarter the prior year so challenges exist for Apple it hasn't innovated significantly in several years and the Apple Vision Pro which is its latest Innovative product is selling at roughly over $3,000 and so that's not going to reach broad market adoption anytime soon so you can understand investors being concerned with Apple stock NOW the greatest risk for Apple stock come from the geopolitical tensions with China and its competition in China losing Market share in that region and you can see in the latest quarter the company's sales in the greater China region fell to 16.3 billion down from 17.8 billion in the first 6 Months of the Year sales in the region fell to 37.1 n billion from 41.7 billion so that's the greatest area of risk for Apple the segment in Greater China it's falling but thankfully it's roughly 20 20% of Apple's business only 16 billion out of the 90 billion in total net sales so roughly 20% less than 20% of its business that business will remain Under Pressure going forward the iPhone is the next category under pressure with sales falling to 45.9 billion down from 51 billion in the same quarter the prior year and this is the entry into the Apple ecosystem if you're not buying an iPhone you're probably not buying air pods and you're probably not buying an Apple Watch maybe maybe not you're subscribing to Apple music or Apple TV plus so if you own an iPhone it makes purchases of all of those other products more likely if iPhone sales are falling it's likely going to hurt sales of all of the other segments in Apple's business Apple hasn't innovated in the iPhone for some time every year it just makes things incrementally better changing the design ever so slightly increas ing the battery size changing and improving the camera minor improvements every year but minor improvements nothing Innovative while its competitors have been making progress Leaps and Bounds catching and even surpassing Apple in some cases in terms of the performance of the phones Apple's been able to retain strong sales still because of the strong ecosystem it's built because of the higher cost of switching if you've been in the Apple ecosystem for let's say 5 6 years it's hard for you to switch to a competitor cuz you've got so much of your Digital Life on Apple devices and so it's difficult to switch Apple counts on that higher cost of switching to keep you in the ecosystem without needing to add significant Improvement to the iPhone however given these declines it's more urgent Now for Apple to deliver innov ative improvements in the iPhone now Apple stock price is down 4% on the year of course the stock price jumping following the company's latest quarterly earnings release where it told investors it was going to buy back over $100 billion in its shares still Apple's stock price is not expensive and it's not cheap it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 25.6 it's been cheaper it's been more expensive it's roughly fairly valued so to answer the question I posed in the headline Warren Buffett is selling Apple stock should we all sell Apple stock and for me I own Apple stock and I'm not selling Apple stock because Warren Buffett is selling Apple stock I wouldn't advise anyone else to sell Apple stock because Warren Buffett is selling it if you feel you have reasons to sell then that's your own personal decision you shouldn't follow Warren Buffett in selling Apple stock I know I'm not