저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 현재 AI 버블 우려에 반대하며 AI 수요가 아직 초기 단계라고 주장. Nvidia 수요가 공급의 12배이며 중국 시장 재진입과 수요 확대로 실적이 15~20% 과소추정됐다고 봄. Palantir는 상업 수주가 현재의 5배로 늘면 향후 2~3년 내 1조 달러 기업이 될 수 있다고 전망. Tesla는 로보택시·물리적 AI 성장을 근거로 기본 목표가 600달러, 강세 시 800달러를 제시. 구글 TPU 우려에도 Nvidia 목표 250달러를 유지.
다듬은 글
I wanted to turbocharge that by discussing 10 stocks of the day. YOLO writes for the holidays. For this one, I want to bring in Wed Bush managing director and global head of tech research, Dan Ies. Dan kindly slid into my inbox this week with a tidy list of 10 tech stocks you all should own. He also thinks we're not in a bubble.
Dan, good to see you, man. It's it's been a while. Looking great to see you. Good as always. Little boss, little F1 driver. Look, I'm feeling it, man. Yeah, of course. For for Sazzi, I'm always I'm always going to bring You're the man, bro. So, you are out with 10 tech stocks to own in the AI revolution.
Level set for us because we've been talking about this AI bubble stuff for about a month. Uh, I'm over it. You make a good point that we're not in one. Why is that? I mean, I I just came back from Asia was there 3 weeks. Demand supply is 12 to1 for Nvidia chips. I mean, we've seen acceleration in terms of demand well even over the last 3 months by 30%.
Look, it speaks to our view. Only 3% of companies in the US have gone down the AI path. Globally, it's less than 1%. Still very early in this AI revolution. But again, it's easy to call it a bubble from 25th floor of a New York City office building or on Metro North, but when you're actually seeing it in the fabs in Taiwan, you have a much different perspective.
And important, I should note, Dan didn't just become an analyst like yesterday. He's been doing this for many years. And you mentioned in this report that you also worked through the '9s, you know, during that tech bubble. What is the difference between today and then late 90s? Yeah. And me and you've talked I mean obviously you we both for decades and been been doing this.
So look late 90s the average tech companies train at 30 times revenues like global crossing global crossing today 27 times earnings that bub when we talk about bubble you know that was really created by companies that had really minimal business models powerpoints. Today it's a trillion it's big tech trillion dollars in the balance sheet three to 400 billion of free cash flow and also this is a true fourth industrial revolution the use case on enterprise it's the future robotics autonomous and that's why I just continue to say this still continues to be it was 9:00 p.m.
it's now 10:30 p.m. in the AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. and the bears watch the party through the windows from the outside. I want to start let's go down this list. Uh let's start in with Nvidia because you and I have been talking about Nvidia for years, but you also wrote another name today calling Nvidia the Rocky Balboa of the I trade.
What is left for Nvidia to achieve next year and where does the stock go? Look, it comes down to like the demand to this point's only been US. Think about sovereigns, what's happened in Asia and ultimately I think will be breaking back into the China market with the regulatory look I think Nvidia earnings numbers they're underestimated probably 15 20% over the next year.
Is that mostly because of China? I think it's China but also I think it's just overall demand the US now even though like on the Google TPU worries about Tommy Gun or whatever you want to say Drago coming to get Rocky Balboa just to continue with the thesis. I love Rocky five, Dan. It gets a lot of crap.
But that's a good movie. I'm But I'm actually more bullish on Rocky 2. Rocky 2. Okay, fair enough. But we But look, the reality is is that there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and that's the godfather of AI genvidia. But look, demand supply is 12 to1. Meta, they can't get all the chips from Nvidia.
As someone that is uh that has been very right on Nvidia, you're very early on Nvidia. Is it laughable to you that Google's now getting some attention with its chips that it's been making and suddenly we all supposed to care about them? Look, I mean it's it's part of the reason like you know we've been so bullish on Alpha or Google just because my view like you start off the year in New York City cab drivers bearish on Google, right?
Given DOJ breakup AI is going to ruin their business model, but it shows now. I mean they're getting major mojo but this is look this is just another additional sort of catalyst for them by continue view I mean Nvidia 250 continues to be my view where that thing ends a year from now Nvidia and then let's hit up let's hit up Palunteer we just had Alex Karp at our invest event and he made obviously he's co-ounder of this company he made a strong case for Palanteer what's your case for Palanteer
it's the messy of AI I mean look it just comes down to like this is a company that when it comes to use cases no one could compete now you could say start off in the government side, but for all the work that we've done, that's why there's a name like the haters, they hated it, 12 despised it, 50 yelling from the mountain tops at 100.
It continues to be in my view what's going to be a trillion dollar come next two or three years. Now look, is this super expensive today? Of course. But what happens when commercial bookings is 5x from where they are today? And then uh let's hit another one. Tesla, Elon Musk signed, sealed, and delivered.
has got his pay package. What does next year hold for them? and our robo taxis that roll out next year the main driver of the stuff biggest chapter of growth ever in its history it's about robotics it's about autonomous must now wartime CEO and I continue view I mean base case $600 bullcase 800 they are going into what I believe when it comes to a physical AI two best companies in the world it's Nvidia
are they a car company they're not look I I think it's almost offensive to call them a car company because I view them as just a pure technology company. I think investors continue to underestimate what that's going to look like. Not on your list. I want to before we uh wrap this up, a couple names not on your list that surprise.
Salesforce not uh not on your list. Amazon not on your list. IBM some of these old school companies like why wouldn't they make this list? And those are all in our Ives AI30 in the ETF. But I'm looking at like and those are names that we're very positive on in terms of where they're going to go. You know what Arvin and Ben off are doing.
But this comes down to like these are our top 10. These are the elite, right? I mean, these are the names that I kind of view each in its own category, you know, are really really defining the AI revolution. Salesforce obviously back against the wall. Everything bending off is doing, I think they're going to be successful.
What Arvin's doing, taking a page out of really Nadella's playbook in terms of what they're doing at IBM. Any chance in hell for Intel now that it's backed up by the government and Nvidia and Nvidia? I mean look look the re you're popping champagne going Thanksgiving as as a you know as an Intel shareholder and you have to give them credit right I mean they are now part of the AI revolution given Nvidia given the beltway and now I it's still ever like uphill battle in terms of innovation
but they're in a much different situation than where they were a year ago. Lastly, Dan, how concerned are you on how entrenched Open AI is really to this entire ecosystem? It's like having too much Peter Luger state. No, I don't like I love Peter Luger, man. But I I guess that's your point. The point is like
it's not a bad thing even though like Oracle Microsoft like so you want they're foundational to what they're doing and I get the words like circular deals that to me they continue to be foundational to where I view the AI revolution. So I don't view anything that that's negative because it's my view like we are still top of the third one out in terms of this AI game.
Are you the big stake guy at Peter Luger? Are you that guy? I mean you share your stake. No, I share the steak and I'm I'm not like I'm not the, you know, I'm s sort of middle of the table type guy, but you know, some good wine. But again, would I rather be Peter Luggers or I'd rather be like, you know, in the White Castle sort of drive-thru at 4:00 a.m.?
Good to see you, man. Great. You uh have a happy Thanksgiving. You, too. I have a green.
댓글 0