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what's up everybody welcome to heresy financial earlier today i posted a video that was mainly about the precious metal sell-off so if you haven't seen that you can go back and watch that video if you are interested in my analysis on what is what happened today in the uh precious metals markets but in this video we're looking closer at the equity markets and looking at why it shows that ray dalio's holy grail of investing is more important than ever in today's economic environment ready let's dive in so today the equity markets are up a massive amount specifically the russell 2000 small caps and the s p 500 is up as well but uh interestingly the nasdaq is basically just kind of uh sputtering along there are a lot of large tech companies that did not do very well today at all and again like i mentioned in my last video that i posted earlier today uh precious metals got hammered and bitcoin's just kind of fluttering along no real movement today down about two percent but for bitcoin that's really not that much that's basically a flat day now in the intro i talked about ray dalio's holy grail of investing and this is what he describes as diversification but it's different than what most people think when they hear diversification diversification doesn't just mean spreading your bets around diversification true diversification can only be achieved if your bets are non-correlated so this means that if you own 100 different stocks but all of these stocks are part of the s p 500 you really don't have much diversification going on because the correlation between the stocks that are a part of that index are almost one they're very very very highly correlated they move up and down together and so to achieve real diversification you can do it with just a couple of different positions as long as they are non-correlated in terms of how they move when certain economic conditions are changing or hit or or time goes on this is one of the reasons why bitcoin has been pushed as an institutional investment over the last few years because it really is a non-correlated asset it doesn't really correlate with gold doesn't really inversely correlate with the dollar it doesn't really correlate with the stock market sometimes it's up a lot with those sometimes it's down a lot compared against those and so it really has no correlation which can make it a nice piece of a puzzle for a for a portfolio if you're trying to achieve diversification because on a day that stocks get hammered whatever caused stocks to drop that probably wouldn't have much of an impact on your bitcoin and vice versa on a day where stocks skyrocket you know five ten percent in one day you know the wrestle two thousand up six percent today as an index that's huge that's enormous bitcoin down two percent and so diversification true diversification can work against you but it also provides a life raft for you preserves your portfolio now this is why it's not smart to go all in on one single bet because then your correlation is 100 your entire portfolio will live or die by the movement of one position and the key to investing success long term is to be able to expose yourself to as many individual asymmetric bets as possible if you just have all of your money in one or two investments that will both do well or die based off of you know similar things happening to them then you don't have multiple bets you only have one bet going but if you have multiple bets that all have different conditions that will cause them to succeed or fail and if they fail they will only impact a small percentage of your portfolio but if they succeed they will impact your portfolio in a big way that's the key to designing a a successful portfolio long term this is why i've talked about five percent being a potential allocation for a portfolio because five percent would be enough to triple your portfolio value if bitcoin does become adopted as money long term but if it fails and goes to zero your portfolio goes from 100 to 95 and so it's an asymmetric bet but the key is to expose yourself to as many asymmetric bets as possible so over the last few months the russell 2000 has absolutely underperformed by a large amount especially compared to the nasdaq small companies have not done very well and tech companies a lot of them have doubled or tripled so this has caused a lot of investors to say why would i allocate any of my money to this index that is underperforming i'd rather place my money on the fastest horse well the problem with that is that the fastest horse can change at any time and so having some of your portfolio allocated to small caps over the last couple of months has been a drag but that's a that's a non-correlated bet the nasdaq has been doing really well while the russell 2000 has not and now it's the opposite the russell 2000 is doing fantastic so your small companies are performing they're giving you a hedge against some of your tech companies that have been dropping right now now two notes if you're a long-term investor all this applies to you and you're not really necessarily concerned about the day-to-day moves up or down you want to construct this portfolio and then sit on it because over time it will decrease your overall portfolio volatility and give you the ability to expose yourself to multiple areas that will each do well over time and not have to reposition yourself constantly according to what you think might happen next but this is not necessarily true for traders if you're a trader and you take short term positions concentration is key so that you can write out those momentum waves and then being very quick to recognize when the uh when the momentum is moving against you and shift your entire positioning into a new thing that is key now if you've tried short-term trading and it has not worked for you likely it's because you haven't been disciplined and you haven't stuck to a trade plan or two rules and you've been going off of emotion or you know news articles and these are very very simple things to change very simple fixes in order to increase your trading performance if you'd like to try out a great software that helps you put together a trade plan try tradersync i've got a link in the description below it's an affiliate link so i will get a small commission if you use my link but it's a great software that helps you out and they've got a free trial as well so you can try it out to see if it works for you as always i really appreciate it you guys are the best have a good day you
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