저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
요약 보기
드러켄밀러 인터뷰를 인용해 현재 시장을 막바지 '멜트업(과열 상승)' 국면으로 진단. 과열은 이성적 판단 능력을 떨어뜨리는 도파민성 열광이며, 강세장 말기 특징이라고 설명. 과열 군중의 고평가 매수 제안은 무시하거나 역이용할 수 있으나 그들의 조언을 따르면 안 된다는 입장. 역사적 밸류에이션 이탈 시 위험이 시작된다고 경고.
다듬은 글
good morning this is Dyan J from behind the markets happy Monday today is December 2nd the first day of December God where did this year go it's unbelievable just like that it just seemed like we were starting January yesterday and here we are in the last month of the year today I wanted to talk about an interview with another very wise hitch fund manager experienced guy named Stanley ducken Miller super successful guy worth billions of dollars and he talked about where are we at with the market right now and he was interviewed on Bloomberg TV and he talked about basically a classic melt up we are in a melt up situation where there's just too much money chasing too few opportunities and so basically they just start out bidding and one of the things that helps me to understand what a market is imagine that you're at a party with a 100 people and the drunker they get the crazier they start to pay for your stock somebody runs up to you and he's really druged I'll pay you $25 for Rocket labs and you say okay I'll sell that to you and they're just euphoric everybody's just excited and euphoric and crazy and they start to say I think this can go to 7,000 the S&P I think that the Dow could go to 50,000 everybody just gets so excited and drunk on Euphoria what you have to understand is that when people start making money or when markets start going on these Animal Spirits it releases dopamine much like happens when people drink you know there's pleasure receptors so it actually distort s their capacity to reason at a high level and we are at that kind of melt-up situation here which is the homework of the top of all bull markets where basically the capacity to reason soundly has started to go down as people get drunker and drunker so that's what happens in bull market you're free to ignore the drunk person that comes and wants to buy rocket Labs at $25 a share or you're free to take advantage of them but you certainly don't want to follow them for financial advice cuz they're distorted they don't have the emotional discipline experience a wherewithal to really understand what's going on so right now we are like in a party with a bunch of drunk people that are running around screaming Happy Days Are Here Again and the part's on I like to visualize us on the sidelines of the party just looking at the guys who buy biote the guys who buy tech stocks the group that buys this cuz they're all hanging out in little groups and whenever they want to run over to us and make us a stupid offer crazy a good offer for anything that we own we're going to sell it to them conversely a bare Market is the opposite of that imagine the same room of 100 people where everybody's really depressed oh my God what what's going to happen oh my God jobs are never going to come back the interest rates are so high I can't even believe it I'm just a Debbie Downer everything gets bad in that situation and in that situation the exact opposite Dynamic is a play you have Capital so what you want to do when those people come up to you those be downers and say oh God you know what this is never going to work I will sell you Palante tier $7 a share just as an example hey you're free to take advantage of those people you don't want to take advice from them but we're all adults here if they act against their own self-interest because they're stunted emotionally they don't understand what chemicals are playing their heads then we are fully allowed to take advantage of that there just what investing is basically investing in the stock market is stock market is a place where impatient people give money to Patient people or less educated or informed people give money to more educated and informed people now that can make you look a little out of step every once in a while because you know as these periods of great Euphoria come again it's like a cocaine stock market everybody's just jacked up and excited and crazy and oh my God it's ever going to end the world's crazy and once they start ignoring valuations actually value historical valuations that the precedent by which all money is Lent all businesses are bought all finances done when you start really just popping away from historical valuations then that's where trouble starts and I'm the guy who likes to go home I don't think there's anything that need that you're going to find after midnight at a party I sell them before they even get crazy I leave the party at 12:00 because I like to get a good night's sleep both when it comes to investing and in my own personal life anyway I hope you have a great Monday happy December
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