저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 막대한 통화공급 확대로 인플레이션이 크게 악화될 것이며, 연준이 이를 막기 어렵다고 주장한다. 통화 확대와 인플레이션 메커니즘: 정부가 세금 없이 1.9조 달러 부양책을 시행했고, 연준이 돈을 찍어 정부 지출로 유통시켰다고 설명한다. 기존 화폐 가치가 떨어져 물가가 오르며 이를 '인플레이션 세금'이라 부른다. 부채 문제: 인플레이션은 실질 부채 가치를 줄이지만, 정부에는 부채를 갚을 계획이 없고 사실상 부채를 부인(repudiate)하고 있다고 본다. 생산과 물가 전망: 미국인들이 집에 머무르며 재화·서비스 생산이 줄었는데 화폐만 늘어나 '돈 많고 물건 적은' 상황이므로 물가 상승은 멈추지 않는다고 전망한다. 연준 평가: 연준은 인플레이션이 일시적(transitory)이라 주장하지만, 결국 인정하게 되면 인플레이션율이 너무 높아져 연준이 대응하기 어렵다고 본다. 금리를 올려 대응하면 2008년보다 큰 금융위기가 올 수 있고, 그 경우 미국 정부가 지급불능 상태에 몰릴 수 있다고 경고한다. 언급 종목·자산: 별도의 종목 방향 언급은 없다. 인플레이션 관련 가격 상승(휘발유·부동산 등) 언급만 있다. 리스크: 금리 인상 시 금융위기 및 정부 재정 위기 가능성. 출연자 전망: 물가가 '훨씬 더 나빠질 것(much worse)'이라는 강한 하락(통화가치 하락) 견해이나, 구체적 기간·목표 수치는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hi again everyone so one thing i've thought about since various governments began rolling out their various stimulus packages and engaging quantitative easing around the world i believe that there was inevitably going to be a big uptick in inflation however it seems to be something that has largely been ignored in the public discourse i've hardly heard anyone speak about it in a meaningful way this made me start to doubt my own logic on why i believe high inflation was coming this was of course until i saw this quick from fox news between peter ship and fox presenter tucker carlson which i'm about to play petership i remembered from his willingness to engage with protesters during the occupy wall street days since then i had hardly heard about him seeing this clip made me get into exploring some of the stuff he has been making over the years through his own youtube channel which i didn't even know existed he mainly posts episodes to a podcast he does a few times each week and the few i have listened to so far have been really interesting and engaging so i will play the tucker carlson clip for you now to give you some of the thoughts that were exchanged about the current state of the us economy and inflation if you find it interesting i encourage you to go and explore peter schiff's channel anyway thanks for watching give this video a like and remember to subscribe if you haven't done so already also let me know your thoughts on what you think will happen with inflation and peter ship's take on it is he right is he wrong let me know in the comments below enjoy the clip see you all next time guys cheers we don't talk enough about inflation on the show washington tells you it's not happening it's not real of course it's real look at the prices gasoline real estate you name it they are all going up what's going on here and what's going to happen next peter schiff is the first person we called to answer these questions you know a lot about the subject he's the ceo of euro-pacific capital and an economist peter thanks so much for coming on set what are we watching it seems clear to consumers that inflation is happening will it get worse well it's going to get much worse tucker you have to remember that inflation really is nothing more than a tax you know when the government spends money they they need to get the money the public has to pay for it normally the government would raise taxes and then taxpayers send money to the government the government spends it but we just passed a 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill nobody's taxes got raised but we don't get all this government for free what happens is the federal reserve prints the money and then the government spends it into circulation but when that happens the value of all the money that's already out there goes down and now the price of everything that you want to buy goes up and that added price is basically the inflation tax it feels like it's intentional i mean is this the way that we're going to pay down the debt by making it less costly by devaluing the dollar well certainly as you have inflation you reduce the real value of the debt but the government has no plan to pay off the debt i mean they're repudiating it but the real problem is the amount of money they're going to have to spend just to finance all their current commitments and this is a massive amount of money printing it's unprecedented inflation because it's the money supply that is being inflated and as a result everything costs more because we're not producing more it's actually the result the opposite americans are at home they're not producing goods and services yet we're creating more money to buy the goods and services that fewer people are producing more money fewer goods prices are just going to keep going up and that's not going to stop just in 10 seconds is this as crazy as it looks from an outsider's perspective well i don't know how it looks to an outsider but i think to everybody that's living in the united states it's not going to look pretty and the real problem is the fed the fed pretends that it's transitory but when they have to admit that it's not transitory the inflation rate will be far too high for the fed to do anything about it because if the fed actually raises rates to fight inflation they'll create a much bigger financial crisis than 2008 and the u.s government will be forced into insolvency because even janet yellen admitted the only reason you
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