원문 보기
SpaceX has just completed the largest IPO in U.S. history, with a valuation of $ 1.75 trillion. Yet, just a month after going public, the share price has returned to its starting point. After tripling in value, chip stocks have also collectively taken a dive, and 94- year-old Warren Buffett, a man who has avoided tech stocks his whole life, suddenly poured $ 10 billion into buying Google.
What exactly is happening in this market? Today, we are going to break down the latest interview with Dan Ives, one of Wall Street's most optimistic analysts, to understand why SpaceX fell, whether chip stocks are still worth chasing, and what Buffett is actually thinking by buying Google. After watching this episode, you will have a very clear judgment on the entire current landscape of AI investment.
Look, I think when you look at SpaceX and some important launches coming up, I think the most important thing for investors, the long-term ones, they're going to view these as speed bumps because you got to ultimately look at this as a story and we talked about it, it's an AI data story. Space, more and more, is going to be a huge part of the AI revolution.
I just, my view, covering tech for decades, if you look at Facebook, you know, the IPO, what it did, you look at Amazon, they get very short-sighted. You know, this is a 26- mile marathon. I think we're only in mile one or two. Yeah, I hear you. I mean, a lot of the commentary is around that, but the fact remains, it's hard to value, and that's one of the issues.
Normally, you look at companies, and you can look at all the different metrics and come out with the price that you think it should be trading at. I think that's part of the problem. When you get into these, you know, it's bound to have a cascade effect. But we talked about whether space, whether it's, you know, Tesla, so many of the transformational tech stocks, you have to be able to see past the trees to look out the next few years.
And when you look at the fourth industrial revolution, where we are...SpaceX, what do you make of what's going on with chips and then what the megas are doing in terms of their trade today and over the past month? I mean, they've certainly woken up but chips remain really, really hard to figure out.
I think it goes back to SK memory—those are the golden children of this AI trade. You've seen massive sell-offs since, you know, since it went public. But then, on the other side, look at where Nvidia and so many of these other chips are. It's down to......tunneled. 15 to 1 demand. This AI revolution, still in the third inning.
But the hyperscalers, those are the ones, the ones that are funding the AI party, funding the cap, those are actually the ones that are mostly in the penalty box . That's why it's so important for Alphabet, for Microsoft, for Amazon. We go into what is really just, I think, a fork in the road earnings season.
But I continue to view demand as strong. I want to talk to you about a number of those names. Let's go to Alphabet because it's so timely given what Warren Buffett said—this was my pick and he thinks they are going to be a winner. What do you make of that? Look, Buffett talked about valuation. You look at Alphabet a year ago, New York City cab drivers were bearish, and now as it plays out in terms of what they're doing on search, what they're doing on cloud, some of the parts for those, like a Buffett looking for a revaluation.
Alright, let’s get to the point. The host started by asking a very sharp question: SpaceX went public , and analysts were very bullish, so why did the stock price fall instead of rise? To understand this, we have to look at the ins and outs of the IPO. SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, with an offering price of $ 135, and it jumped straight to $ 150 on the first day of trading.
The goal was to raise $ 75 billion, with a valuation benchmarked directly at $ 1.75 trillion. This is the largest IPO in U.S. history, bar none. But here's the problem. Just over a week after the opening, the share price began to slide . By June 22, CNBC reported that the share price of SpaceX had already fallen by 16%.
By mid-July, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was, at one point, only a dollar higher than its issue price. You can imagine, a $ 1.75 trillion giant returning to its starting point just one month after listing. What is the logic behind this? There are three core reasons. The first is valuation. New Street, one of the world's largest independent research firms, issued a report in early June stating that SpaceX was severely overvalued.
Using the DCF discounted cash flow model, they calculated that SpaceX's reasonable valuation is around 780 billion USD, meaning the IPO price is almost double the fair value. The report also included a particularly stinging remark: SpaceX's valuation is 67 times its revenue, which is three times more expensive than Nvidia.
The second issue is that it's not profitable. SpaceX's prospectus explicitly states that they have been losing money and aren't guaranteed to make a profit in the future, with a full-year loss of 940 million USD in 2025 and 4.28 billion lost in the most recent quarter. Furthermore, if you look at its business structure, Starlink satellite internet contributes 69%of revenue, making it the only profitable segment.
The space launch business itself is losing money, and the xAI artificial intelligence division burned through 2.5 billion in just one quarter. Third, Musk's narratives are starting to face backlash. The market has seen too many "Musk concept stock" stories, from Tesla to Neuralink, and investors are becoming more rational.
Moreover, Chen Xing specifically pointed out that xAI poses a real threat of value destruction to the company. What does that mean? It means that SpaceX has shoehorned an xAI business into the company, but how deep is the economic moat of this business, really? No one can say for sure. So, how does Dan Ives respond to these doubts?
He made a crucial statement: This is an AI data story, and one of the most important parts of the AI revolution. This judgment is actually quite forward-looking and worth expanding upon. Let everyone imagine, what does AI need? It needs computing power, data , and connectivity, and Starlink now has a global satellite internet network with over several million users.
In the future, if you want to run AI inference or transmit data from any corner of the globe—like deserts, the sea, or high altitudes—you cannot bypass this satellite network. After the acquisition of xAI, its positioning has changed; it is no longer just a rocket company, but a piece of AI infrastructure in the sky.
This concept is actually huge. But the problem is that being "huge" doesn't mean it can be implemented; latency, bandwidth, and cost issues for using satellite communications for AI inference are all tangible technical challenges. Whether xAI can really succeed is hard to say right now, so while Dan Ives 'logic holds up, the path to implementation still carries a high degree of uncertainty.
He also used an analogy, saying that looking back at Facebook's IPO or the early days of Amazon, it's very easy to be shortsighted. That analogy actually makes sense. When Facebook went public in 2012, its stock price also plummeted, falling from $ 38 to $ 17, a drop of over 50%. But look at how many times Meta's stock has risen since then.
So, the core logic is that the early performance of a transformative company does not reflect its long-term value. Is that true? Yes, but there is a prerequisite: the company must truly be transformative. Facebook was able to turn things around because the mobile internet wave arrived, and they seized it.
Whether SPSX can seize the AI wave in the future is something investors need to judge independently. During the interview, the host raised a second core question. What is your take on chip stocks? Dan Fuss replied with one sentence. Returning to the SK Hynix line, that is the gold standard for AI trades.
The context here is very important. SK Hynix is the world's largest producer of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and just completed its US listing on July 10, 2026. This is the largest overseas IPO in Korean history, raising $ 1.4 billion and listing directly on the NASDAQ. Why is SK Hynix so important? Because for AI chips to run, having NVIDIA's GPUs alone is not enough; they need high-speed memory like HBM to feed them data.
Think of the GPU as an engine and HBM as the fuel tank. No matter how powerful the engine is, if the fuel tank can't keep up, the car won't go fast. Therefore, SK Hynix is an absolute core supplier in the AI chip industry chain. After SK Hynix went public, there was indeed a wave of sell-offs in the chip sector.
Why was that? Part of it was profit-taking. In the first half of 2026, the Korean KOSPI index rose by 125%, and SK Hynix surged by 310%. Many people made enough money and cashed out . The other part is that the market is digesting the gains; chip stocks have risen so high that valuations are very crowded, and any slight disturbance will trigger a sell-off.
Then, Dan Fuss stated his core judgment: everything comes down to the second-quarter earnings report, which acts as a flashlight in a dark tunnel. That phrase is actually quite vivid. It means that whether the market's demand for AI is truly strong or just a bubble has been all talk so far. But once Q2 earnings are out, the numbers won't lie : how many chips were sold, how much cloud revenue rose, and where capital expenditures went—these are all hard data.
According to the data, the Q2 earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to grow by 23.3% year-over-year. The tech sector is the core driver of this growth. Interestingly, earnings expectations for this quarter have actually been revised upward over the past few months , rather than being cut by 2-3%as is usually the case.
This shows that analysts are becoming increasingly confident in this round of growth. He also mentioned a data point: the ratio of demand to supply is 15: 1. What does that concept actually mean? It means that current demand for AI chips is 15 times the supply capacity. In other words, it's not that there's no demand, but that production capacity simply cannot keep up.
If this data is accurate, then the pullback in chip stocks is truly just a technical correction, not a fundamental issue. Davis mentioned a very interesting take : the "super-large" companies, like Microsoft. Amazon, Google, and Meta are the companies that are really in the " penalty box." Why is that?
To understand this, you need to grasp a core contradiction: these massive tech firms are the ones footing the bill for the AI party. By 2026, the combined AI infrastructure capital expenditure ( CAPEX) for Microsoft, Google, and the others is expected to reach a staggering $ 725 billion. 725 billion!
Just think about such a huge sum of money—it's roughly equivalent to the entire annual GDP of Switzerland. The question is, what is the return after spending it? The biggest anxiety for investors right now is: after spending so much money building data centers, buying GPUs, and setting up AI infrastructure, how much real, tangible profit can we expect to see in the short term?
So, while these companies are the core beneficiaries of AI, precisely because they spend the most and face the most uncertainty, they have been put in the "penalty box" by the market. Davis says this is why the upcoming Q2 earnings reports are so critical. For companies like Microsoft and Amazon, this is a crossroads-style earnings season.
If the earnings data can prove that the spending is indeed translating into revenue growth and improved profits, then these companies will be able to climb out of the " penalty box." But if the data is disappointing, the sell-off may accelerate. Now, for the final major topic: Buffett buying Alphabet.
Here is the background. In the third quarter of 2025, Berkshire Hathaway first disclosed its stake in Alphabet and has been continuously adding to its position every quarter since. By June 1 , 2026, he even made a direct private purchase of $ 10 billion in Alphabet stock, with $ 5 billion in Class A shares and $ 5 billion in Class C shares.
What kind of signal is this? Buffett, a 94-year-old, is best known for a lifetime of avoiding tech stocks he doesn't understand. Yet now he is heavily invested, and Buffett himself later publicly stated that he led this investment personally, not his successors. Dave’s interpretation is spot on: he noted that a year ago, even New York taxi drivers were bearish on Alphabet.
But look at it now; its performance in search and cloud computing, combined with its valuation, is relatively reasonable. For a value investor like Buffett, Alphabet is one of the few targets in the AI sector where the numbers actually add up. This actually highlights a very core investment logic. Not all AI-concept stocks are suitable for value investors .
Buffett would certainly never touch stocks that burn through cash like there’s no tomorrow. But Alphabet is different. It has a......mature search advertising business as a cash cow, fast-growing cloud computing, and a valuation that is indeed cheaper compared to Nvidia or others. Moomoo, a brand under a listed US company, get up to $ 100 in stock, and idle funds can earn up to 8.1%returns.
If interested, click the link below the video to check it out. Alright, after fully breaking down this 访 弹 ( interview), you’ll find that first, there is no short-term fundamental support for AI, but the long-term potential remains. If you believe AI plus space is the next major trend, you can tolerate short-term losses and volatility.
But if you are a fundamental investor, the risk of entering the market right now is truly significant. The reasonable valuation of 780 billion mentioned by Chen Xing is a reference point worth remembering. Second, the core conflict for chip stocks is not demand, but valuation. A 15-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio and the explosive growth of HBM all demonstrate that the demand for AI chips is real, but the question is how much future growth is already priced into the stock , which needs to be verified by Q2 earnings reports.
Third, large-cap tech companies are the group whose risk-reward ratio in this wave of AI investment most needs re-evaluation; they spend the most and hold the most sway, but their short-term returns are the most uncertain, and Q2 earnings will be key to whether they can break out of this bottleneck.
Fourth, the fact that Buffett bought into AI itself is a signal, showing that AI is no longer just a speculative concept, but a structural trend that even the most conservative value investors are willing to bet big on. That’s all for this video. To watch more, .
Comments 0