저자: Jet · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 달리오의 '빅 사이클'을 깨고 기축통화가 될 수 있다는 주장의 해설 영상이다. 달리오 빅 사이클 개요: 신흥 제국의 승리 → 평화·번영 → 금융 거품 → 기축통화 지위 → 과잉 확장 → 거품 붕괴 → 화폐 증발 → 쇠퇴의 순환이며, 현재 미국은 재정적자 확대와 달러 공급 40% 이상 증가로 쇠퇴 단계에 있고 중국이 대체할 것으로 봤다. 비트코인 기축통화론 근거: 공급량 2,100만 개 고정으로 인플레이션 면역, 나이지리아·인도 등의 자산 방어 사례, 전 세계 접근성, 정부·은행의 조작 불가능성, 엘살바도르·마데이라의 법정화폐 채택을 제시한다. 장애물: 높은 변동성(시간이 지나면 안정될 것으로 봄), 느린 거래 속도(초당 약 7건, 라이트닝 네트워크 등 2계층 해법 언급) 등을 꼽았다. 달리오 비판: 역사를 운명론적 순환으로 보는 시각의 한계, 중국의 한자녀 정책·고령화·부패·빈부격차 문제, 시진핑 이후 리더십 불확실성을 지적한다. 결론: 달리오가 블록체인 기술을 간과했다는 주장이며, 명시적인 가격 전망이나 매매 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
Have you watched billionaire investor Ray Dalio video about the changing world order? Well, in it, Ray describes a big cycle, which explains the rise and fall of. All great empires. Over the past 500 years. It's a fascinating video with mostly positive reviews. However, the crypto community noticed that Dalio overlooked a groundbreaking and revolutionary technology, a technology that could change the way the world economy works.
We're talking, of course, about Bitcoin. Which is. Why today we're diving deep into. Dalio's Big cycle and examining the ways cryptocurrencies could shatter. This big cycle for good. My name is Jet. And here at CoinMarketCap, we are on a mission to make crypto accessible all around the world. That's why we love making videos just for you that are packed with information.
Easy to understand and of course, simple to share. With your friends and family. So if you want something. More than just hype and to actually learn about crypto make sure to hit the subscribe button right now and turn on notifications to not miss out on. New videos and let's learn together. First of all, who is Ray Dalio?
Ray Dalio is a billionaire investor best known for establishing Bridgewater Associates, which is the largest hedge fund in the world today. When he's not investing in the financial markets. Dalio writes books on economics and investing. In his most recent book. Dalio. Studies the Rise and Fall of Empires.
Going back 500 years to see if I could find a pattern. That. Would help us predict when the next great empire might fall and who could replace them. Through his analysis. Dalio claims to have found a recurring pattern that explains how and why America might lose its place as the great empire of our age.
And how China could replace it. He calls this pattern the big cycle. So let's take. A look at how it works. It all starts with a bang A new. Empire wins an immense and dramatic battle, cementing its position on top of the New World Order and marking the beginning. Of value's big cycle. At this point.
No other country wants to challenge this newly victorious regime and so follows a few decades of peace and prosperity during which the Empire citizens enjoy increased education and much improved living. Standards. The Empire's newly educated citizenry become more innovative inventing new and exciting goods which grows the Empire's economy.
Investors are encouraged by what they see, so. They bet big on the empire. Continuing to innovate and. Grow. The Empire's new wealth and investment then leads to a financial bubble. And the creation of. A self-reinforcing wealth. Divide. Between the factory owners and their workers. Despite the bubble growing in the background, the empire share of global trade eventually surpasses that of all other countries.
So other countries are then compelled to accept the Empire's currency for trade purposes, making it the global reserve currency as other countries. Stockpile the Empire's. Currency as part of their cash reserves. The Empire accumulates immense wealth in a relatively short. Space of time. The Empire approaches the.
Summit of its wealth and prosperity as foreign nations start creating cheaper versions of its key exports, which siphons off some of the Empire's trade. Profits. By now, the. Empire spans the entire world and is financially overstretched, spending far more on maintaining its dominance than it earns from tax revenues.
Inevitably, the Empire's financial bubble bursts, forcing its central bank to print more money and devalue the currency in circulation. By now, much of the population now. Descends into civil war over who should receive what portion of the Empire's declining wealth. The wealthy citizens sell their holdings of the Empire's.
Currency and move their wealth. Abroad, which in turn devalues it even. Faster. And as the Empire slips into a state of deep and irreversible decline, a new empire emerges to replace it on top of the world order. And so begins. A new big cycle. So where are we in Dahlia's big cycle today? Where exactly is America.
In this big cycle? Well, the US government is already spending more than it earns from taxes, which has forced the Federal Reserve to increase. The dollar. Supply by more than 40% in the last two years. American society is increasingly fractured. As a result of. Wealth inequality and its various external conflicts.
Which is why Dalio thinks. That America is seeping into decline and that China will take. The top spot. But then again, Dalio. Didn't account for cryptos massive potential to transform the world economy and break the big cycle. So how could crypto disrupt Dahlia's big cycle for an empire to reach? And then stay on top of the world order?
Its currency must be accepted and use as a global reserve currency. This allows the empire to borrow. Money cheaper than. Other countries. Can, which encourages. Investment and allows its. Economy to grow. Faster than any other. Country. For example, America benefits by at least $100 billion per year because.
Of the dollar's global reserve status, which is more. Than the GDP of Slovakia. But as America slips into decline, Dalio suggests that China's currency, the yuan, will probably replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. In time, this would cement China's position on top of the world order. But what if the yuan wasn't the next global reserve currency?
What if our next reserve currency wasn't even a fiat currency at all? What if it was Bitcoin? Could Bitcoin really become the world's reserve currency? If you think using. Bitcoin as a next reserve. Currency sounds suspicious or even crazy, you should know that there is a worldwide movement of people dedicated to promoting this idea, one of which is Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
Back in 2015. Armstrong tweeted that he thought, quote, Bitcoin could surpass the dollar. As the. Reserve currency within ten to 15 years. Which would be sometime. Between 2025 and 2030. Armstrong's opinion alone probably won't convince you. So let's look at some of the reasons why more and more people think that Bitcoin really could be the next global reserve currency.
Firstly, cryptocurrencies are now more deeply embedded in the global economy than most people predicted they ever would be. And as time goes by, they. Will only become a more essential. Elements of the. World's core economic infrastructure. Second, numerous large and influential financial institutions like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are registering Bitcoin funds and advertising their clients on crypto investments, which will certainly lead to more institutional investment over time.
And lastly, do you. Remember when. El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender last year? Well, just recently an autonomous region in Portugal called Madeira also. Adopted Bitcoin as de facto. Legal tender. Although the small but mighty El Salvador was the first country. To build up some Bitcoin reserves.
It probably won't be the last. So as you can see, it's possible. That Bitcoin. Could replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But should it should Bitcoin be. The world's reserve currency? Bitcoin has loads of technical and design advantages over the paper currencies we use today that make it ideal to.
Use as. A reserve currency, including. Number one. Bitcoin is not inflationary. Firstly, unlike fiat currencies such as the dollar and the euro, Bitcoin has a fixed. Supply, which means that once. All 21 million bitcoins. Are mind, that's it. No more new bitcoins. So it's impossible. For a central bank or government to create more bitcoin.
And devalue all of the bitcoins in circulation. Regardless of their position in the world order. Meaning that over. Time Bitcoin should. Steadily increase in value. Unlike the dollar, which has lost nearly 4% in value every year since 1960. In fact, Nigerian. Citizens are already using. Bitcoin to dodge.
Their currencies inflation as well as to pay their international suppliers. And they're not alone. India's citizens are increasingly turning to Bitcoin to protect. Their wealth as well. And because of the. Inflation rates we're seeing across Europe and North America right now. Westerners are increasingly buying Bitcoin to shelter their.
Savings as well. So maybe it's just a matter of time until central banks make the same decision. Number two, Bitcoin has a global reach. Today, anyone with an Internet connection can download a wallet and easily buy Bitcoin. So no matter which country you live, in or which language you speak. If you've got the Internet, you can buy Bitcoin.
Which is not true of any fiat currency. Even the dollar. Business owners in every country benefit from Bitcoin because. They can both buy and sell their products and services, as well as pay their staff in a single currency. Not bound by borders. So as more countries adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Their businesses will have an easier time operating internationally.
Number three, Bitcoin is secure from government intervention. As you're probably aware by now, Bitcoin is not controlled by any bank regulator or. Government In other words, it's decentralized. And while this has some. Disadvantages. Mainly bankers and regulators telling people it is not safe in the long term, however, it's really a big advantage.
That's because a decentralized currency like Bitcoin cannot be manipulated or controlled by any government. Or bank Which is a problem we often see today. For instance, some countries deliberately lower the value of their currency to lower the costs of their exports, giving their traders in unearned price advantage over traders from other countries that.
Don't manipulate their currency. But as we just said, Bitcoin cannot be manipulated in this way. No government or bank can force more Bitcoins into existence. And those who want to burn Bitcoin will only make everybody else richer. Number four, Bitcoin is fair to everybody. No country. Benefits more than.
Any other by holding Bitcoin in its reserves or using it as legal tender. So if every country uses Bitcoin no country benefits from its currency being the global reserve. Currency, as America does today. The impact here is that. If any country takes America's place on top of the world, order, they will have a much.
Tougher time staying on top than America has today. Or. Britain and the Netherlands before that. This could. Seriously flatten the boom and crash curves. Of daily those big. Cycle or even render it obsolete. In fact. As more countries start using Bitcoin as. Part of their reserves, we might see a cascade of bigger and more developed.
Nations adopting Bitcoin either. As legal tender or as part. Of their reserves as well. And if every country on. Earth holds Bitcoin in their reserves, could any country convince the other countries to use their currency instead of Bitcoin? Probably not. So you've just heard some. Reasons why Bitcoin.
Could and. Should be the world's reserve currency. And now you're. Probably wondering what's. Standing in Bitcoin's way. Why might Bitcoin not. Become the next. Reserve. Currency? We all know that Bitcoin is volatile when compared to the paper. Currencies in circulation today. Mostly because of. Fickle investor sentiment, inconsistent regulation, and lots.
And lots of media hype. So until. Bitcoin stabilizes. The biggest economies are unlikely to risk using it for even a fraction of their reserves. However, as it's market cap and liquidity increases. In the last bitcoins are. Mined in 2040, Bitcoin should. Become less volatile. How much less volatile.
Bitcoin will be and whether any central banks will feel confident enough to use it isn't something we can say for sure. But in this relatively short history, Bitcoin has become less volatile. As time goes by. The second obstacle preventing Bitcoin from becoming the next reserve. Currency is its transaction.
Speed. Today, visa clocks. Around 17. Hundred transactions per second. And it has the capacity. For many more. Bitcoin, on the other. Hand, it manages a measly seven. Transactions per second. So before Bitcoin could become the next reserve currency, the network needs to be able to handle significantly.
More. Transactions. One way to. Achieve this is to increase. Bitcoin's block size. Another way that's being done right. Now is to implement a Layer two solution enabling quicker transactions. The Lightning Network is one. Such Layer two solution. It. Uses peer to peer payment channels that confirm transactions off chain, which speeds up.
Transaction times while making them. Cheaper. If Lightning or some. Other layer two protocol solved Bitcoin's. Slow and expensive transactions, the network could theoretically handle millions of transactions per second, making it the cheapest and most efficient currency available anywhere and perfect.
To use as a reserve. Currency. But there are also a couple of. Other problems that people spotted in Dalia's video that. Weren't crypto related. Values, fatalism and fallacies. Number one, it's just all a bit fatalist. Dalia's idea that. Civilizations are destined to swing like a pendulum between war and peace or prosperity and poverty isn't original.
And nor is it really accurate to suggest that any. Great civilization. Must eventually fall because of an unbreakable cycle is more or less implying that it doesn't control its economy. But fate or some other supernatural force does, such as the big cycle. So if Dalia is correct, this means in empires, legislators, central bankers and its citizens are not really controlling their society.
They're merely hamsters running on a wheel imagining they're in control of the world. However, most people would agree that a civilization's fortune is not decided by fate, and that a society armed with thousands of years of history can stop itself from repeating the mistakes of previous civilizations.
Number two, China has got problems, too. The fall of one civilization and the rise of another are crucial elements of values. Big cycle. And Dalio believes China will take America's spot on top of the world order. And while China's economy. Is undeniably booming, there are plenty of good reasons to think that it will struggle to overtake or maintain its position atop the world order because of its one child policy.
For instance, China does not have the infrastructure to care for its aging population, which will slow its economic growth in the years to come. Corruption is another problem plaguing the upper echelons of Chinese. Society, which. Xi Jinping has so far failed to address. And like America, China is also wrestling with a fast.
Growing wealth gap, which the new. Statesman reports is not too far behind America's. Besides, even if the dollar completely collapses, there's no guarantee the countries will replenish their foreign currency reserves with yuan. They could also use the Japanese yen, the euro, or even the pound. And lastly, Dalio fails to account for what's going to happen to China if Xi Jinping passed away.
Xi himself once suggested that the Soviet Union collapsed chiefly because of weak, untrustworthy leaders and there's no guarantee that whoever replaces him will keep China on such a steady course or even heading in the same direction. So as you can see, there are plenty of reasons to. Think that China's rise.
To the top of the world order is by no means guaranteed. And if China isn't going to replace America as the world's number one superpower, who will? Is America manages. To change its. Course? Or if China fails. To maintain its upward. Direction, would that mean the. End of Dalio's Big cycle? Well, it might.
But as we've shown, Dahlia's biggest mistake was overlooking the most revolutionary technology of a generation crypto. So Dalio began changing the world order by explaining that the events that caught him off guard were the ones that had not happened in his lifetime. Well, the world has never experienced a technological event quite like crypto.
And if Dalio fails to. Acknowledge how crypto could change the world economy forever, he's in it for a rude surprise.
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