저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 실사용보다 금융 헤지 수단으로 대중화될 것이며, 자신은 자산의 약 1%를 헤지로 보유한다. 비트코인 활용 사례: 결제 기능은 Cash App·Venmo 같은 더 쉬운 앱이 대체할 것이므로, 비트코인의 주된 용도는 제품이 아닌 금융 수단(헤지)으로 이동한다고 봄. 금과 유사하게 대중은 헤지로 이해하기 쉬워 이 개념으로 진입한다고 주장. 투자 이력: 2010년 웬세스 카사레스의 소개로 처음 접하고, 이후 가족 사무소가 대량 매수. 가격이 2만 달러 때와 3000달러 때 등락에도 장부가 유지를 지시했으며 현재 가격은 특정하지 않음. 보유 현황: 과거 펀드가 비트코인 약 5%를 보유했다는 질문에 정확한 비율은 모른다고 답함. 일부 코인을 DCG에 넘겨 그레이스케일 ETF 설립에 사용. 개인 보유분 1% 헤지 목표를 추적하며, 실물 코인보다 ETF 지분을 선호하고 보안·물류 부담을 피하려 함. 시장 반응: 코로나 충격 때 비트코인도 주식과 함께 하락한 것에 대해, 단기 트레이더 비중이 커서 주식과 동조화된 것이라 설명. 장기적으로 소액 장기 보유자가 늘면 독립적 헤지 성격이 강해질 것으로 전망. 금과의 비교: 비트코인을 디지털 금으로 규정하는 내러티브에는 이견. 금은 산업 수요가 있지만 비트코인은 단순한 금융 헤지로 설명하는 것이 대중에게 명확하다고 주장. 이더리움 등 알트코인: 부정적. 기술 선두주자(category killer)가 승자를 독점하며, 2·3위 플레이어 투자는 1위만큼 보상받지 못한다고 주장. 단순 명쾌한 선택(선두 자산 보유)을 권고. 리스크/조건: 비트코인이 성공하면 기존 금융 질서에 큰 충격이 올 수 있다는 역설적 우려를 언급.
다듬은 글
if your bitcoin bet pays off it will be catechismically destructive for the world um and that'll have enormous consequences to many people that we all know and care about who weren't hedged in bitcoin um and so you almost don't want it to happen um but you literally only can see one path to its success you don't see any other reason for it to succeed even in a world where not everything else comes crashing down not really um you know i mean i think that people could claim that it's a more frictionless payment mechanism or payment rails i i don't really buy that i think that there are much easier to use products that eventually will become you know uh virtual payment mechanisms that connect the world whether it's whatsapp or the cash app or venmo or we pay all of these things will eventually be threaded together in an underlying framework uh that'll allow seamless money transfer uh zero cost instantaneously um you know in a ledger that's that's uh that gives you a sense of security and transparency all of these things i think will eventually happen and so the use case for bitcoin i think uh become less and less as a product and more and more as an instrument and again then you have to think about what the underlying value of the instrument is you know people try to make this case for gold all the time that there is an industrial use for gold and i would say maybe but overwhelmingly folks use it as as an instrument to hedge other parts of their assets and other parts of their portfolio similarly we will make the case ad infinitum for the industrial value of bitcoin but the overwhelming use case for the most people will be as a financial hedge and i think that that's good enough because that's what will get our you know quote unquote the you know the proverbial sort of grandmother grandfather to buy this thing is that concept because they can understand that much more easily than they can understand distributed ledgers and you know seamless payment gateways it's it's all a little gobbledygook at some level right and out of curiosity when you first heard about bitcoin did it take you a while to understand its potential because a lot of people say oh at first i dismissed it and i wondered if you think there's a there's a there's a well-known person in the bitcoin ecosystem his name is wences uh casares he was the one that introduced it to me in 2010 we were actually going to las vegas for his 40th birthday and that's when he pitched me on it and i remember landing uh three days later and i called my family office and said you know buy a million bitcoin that's how i started and uh it was you know 80 bucks or something at the time um and it just sounded kind of really interesting but then it took me a few years to really understand it you know um i didn't totally understand all the mechanics of it and to be honest with you i've forgotten most of the mechanics now um you know i studied it at the moment i made an underwriting decision to buy and then to never think about it again um and by and large i've never thought about it again i mean i i remember my family office flipped out when you know bitcoin was 20 000 a coin they're like uh and i was like guys don't tell me i don't want to know this is like just take it off the balance sheet don't ever look at it keep it at the cost and uh you know don't get psychologically affected by this number it doesn't mean anything and then it went back down to 3000 or something and they call me again they're like uh and i was like guys i told you it just doesn't matter what's going on here um and so you know i don't know you know where it is now nine thousand eight thousand ten thousand whatever um i think yeah i don't uh i couldn't tell you what the price is well i was curious you did say at one point that your funds owned almost five percent of all bitcoins i don't believe that's the case anymore so i was wondering what percentage of bitcoins you owe now i don't i don't actually honestly i couldn't tell you i don't know um but yeah we um you know we were pretty aggressive buyers i think you know we were also sellers of some um in the fund uh because i bought some in my fund as well um for for my for myself and my lps i bought for myself personally um you know i have a bunch of coins that i gave to uh dcg so that they could stand up the grayscale etf um and so you know uh i don't know um but um yeah i'm pretty happy with sort of you know what i own i kind of think about it as like i said uh i should i should be one percent hedged and uh i try to track that um just to make sure that that's still nominally the case like meaning that you rebalance uh i haven't actually actively rebalanced i've gotten distributions from other folks um and so when i get more i just kind of you know give it to grayscale quite honestly just because i don't want to deal with the coins themselves i'd rather just get back shares in the etf because it's just easier for me to manage so i don't i don't want to have access to the bitcoin uh i just think that's a huge administrative and logistical burden i don't want to bear level at some level it's also a security thing that i don't want to take on so you know that's grayscale's problem um or coin basis problem uh yeah yeah well one thing i was also going to ask you i know you just said you don't really watch the bitcoin markets but did you hear about how um bitcoin also took a massive hit at the same time that panic about the coronavirus was hitting the stock market and i wondered what that uh if that affected your thesis that this was an uncorrelated hedge well it i mean i think that that more reinforced that for right now people who are day trading or speculating they're the same people that are day trading or speculating other financial markets and so you know it'll suffer the same psychological webs and flows and so you know when people were selling off equities um it's because they wanted more liquidity whether it was because of margin pressure or because that they had a directional view in the stock market and i think that's the same thing with bitcoin because a lot of the day-to-day market participants are actively trading the same way they would trade any other stock or bond or commodity and so it wasn't surprising in my mind that that bitcoin traded off uh when equities traded off it just goes to show you that that there is a portion of people that view it as a hedge and will never look at it and then there's a much larger portion to be honest who view it as a financial instrument that can that you can you know speculate on and make money on in short-term increments and inasmuch as those people are greater than or equal to the number of people who view it as a hedge it will sort of map to other financial markets when when there's a drawdown in equities you'll probably see a drawdown in bitcoin when there's a rally in equities you'll see a rally in bitcoin and by and large i suspect that that's what we've seen um and that speaks more to the short-term nature of the people in the in the asset class today um but that probably will change um over time as well because again you know when you get sort of like the long tail adoption of this um so that when there's i don't know uh hundreds of thousands millions tens of millions hundreds of millions of people that own it um they will be more like me you know lazy holders um they bought it for a very different reason than speculation and they neither have the time or the inclination to care what it does on a daily basis uh and that that will be very good for bitcoin and one other thing is you also said in another interview that you disagree with the narrative that bitcoin is digital gold and i wondered why you disagreed with that i don't feel that that's necessarily uh something that's uh incompatible with the idea that it's an uncorrelated hedge yeah i mean i i think that when um the the problem is that that people get very philosophically strict when they talk about gold um you know they they i think some people frankly own it because they believe that at some point we'll go back to a gold standard or philosophically they believed so strongly in a gold standard other people legitimately do believe that there is some you know industrial use and that there is some portion of the trading value of it that that ebbs and flows based on its industrial value which isn't not untrue um i don't think enough people necessarily view it as like a pure pure pure inflation hedge or you know market hedge um and so that's sort of my comment which is that you know to paint it in the brush of gold just again makes the explanation more complicated and if you want mass market adoption the one thing i've realized in anything in any product is you need true simplicity and this is why you know i would encourage people to really embrace the simplicity of what bitcoin is which is it's basically schmuck insurance in case the people in charge really [ __ ] it up well i was also curious so do you see merit and any of the other crypto assets uh in particular ethereum no and why not um you know it's kind it's kind of like when you have a bellwether instrument the gains typically go to the winner so i'll use an equity example to make the case when obamacare passed um there was going to be a clear tailwind to health insurance and you know you could have bought a basket of health insurers or you could have just bought united healthcare and the basket would have performed okay united healthcare 10x in the last 10 years if you believed in smartphones you could have bought a basket of things in 2010 when or 2008 or 9 when the iphone first got released you could have bought you know nokia and motorola and samsung and htc or you could have just bought apple and apple frankly just crushed everybody else the point is that in any market when there's a clear winner it's not that these other things can't win but there's a weird psychological effect that almost drives these second and third tier winners which is a desire by people almost out of this sense of insecurity to not want to admit that there's a winner simply because they weren't the one to pick it first and so what they do is they create these convoluted narratives and theses to basically anoint other winners and yeah can they win sure but do they ever win like the category killer no i mean do you really want to be long lycos and duckduckgo or did you just want to be on google um just there has been not a single market where you've been rewarded as handsomely for being long the number two three and four player as you are for being long the number one player and again it goes back to when things tip and go mass market the average buyer makes the simple decision and the simple decision is to go to the category defining winner and then set it and forget it you
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