저자: HeitorOro · 외국인
요약 보기
Howard Marks의 투자 서적을 요약 소개하며, 시장 사이클, 리스크-리턴(내재가치 대비 저평가 자산 매수), 불확실성 인정과 분산투자의 세 가지 핵심 개념을 정리한 영상. 시장은 상승·하락을 반복하는 사이클을 가지며, 상승 사이클에서는 더 신중하고 하락 사이클에서는 더 공격적으로 대응해야 한다고 설명. 과열(전고점 경신, 모두가 낙관)기에는 경계가 필요하다고 강조. 투자의 성배는 리스크-리턴을 평가해 적정 가격의 좋은 투자를 찾는 것이며, 할인현금흐름(DCF) 등으로 내재가치를 산출해 시장가격이 가치보다 낮은 자산을 매수하는 방식을 제시. 미래를 확신하고 한 섹터에 집중 투자하는 것이 가장 큰 위험이며, 경제 예측가들의 예측은 대체로 틀린다는 점을 강조. 따라서 여러 시나리오(위기·강세장)를 견딜 수 있도록 섹터와 지역(해외주식 포함)에 분산된 포트폴리오를 구성해야 한다고 주장. 진행자는 책을 10점 만점에 10점으로 추천하며, 향후 각 개념을 더 깊이 다루는 영상을 만들겠다고 밝힘. 구체적인 종목·지수 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, I just finished reading Howard Marks' most important book for investors, and I thought it was sensational, a 10 out of 10! You'll be constantly thinking it's the best book by the world's leading investor. It gives you a very complete, very dense foundation with extremely valuable content. I really liked it.
I'm going to share three points from the book with you here. The book has many ideas; I made notes and had 12 topics to share, but I'll share three that I think are the main ones. I intend to make individual videos for each of the topics, but this is three points that he mentions in the book, which I think are very important.
First, or rather, Marks', he's a reference when talking about market cycles. The market has its upward cycle and its downward cycle, and the market is cyclical. He says this and proves that many times when we are in an upward cycle, we have to say, "Wow, now it's different." Oh no, he manages to show that the cycle repeats itself every time.
And really, the order of this market cycle is that we have a bear market, a bull market, reach maturity, and then fall again. So with this reflection, he gives you one. Points to analyze when we're in an upward cycle, when we were in a downward cycle, we're in an upward cycle, it's a circle where we have to be more cautious.
When we were in a downward cycle, it's because we have to be more aggressive, I don't know, thinking, for example, about an offer that causes a very large drop, we're in a downward cycle, it's the moment when I have to be more aggressive in investments. When we're in euphoria, when everyone on the stock market has hit a record high, I have to be more cautious.
People talk a lot about market cycles, and believe me, I agree with you about market cycles. The second point I want to convey to you is risk-return. He says that the Holy Grail of investments is knowing how to evaluate risk-return, that is, finding good investments at the right price. And how is this done?
Mainly by looking at the intrinsic value of the investment, which would be a serial intrinsic value of investments. There are several ways to arrive at it, one being to do a valuation, which would be to take a discounted cash flow, which would be to take the assets that the company has, its benefits, everything that remains today, I'm going to discount a cash flow filter.
For five years, this cash flow is very positive in relation to researching and trading, that is, seeing that the value of that company is worth much more than the price it's trading at in the market. This is a holy grail of investment, so it's an old-fashioned investor, the guy who figures value, the guy who looks for assets that are being undervalued in the market, whose value is greater than the price they're trading at.
So I go there and buy that asset because I believe that the trend is for the price to return to levels close to the value I believe that company has. And that's what he says, the Holy Grail of investing, this helps a lot with risk-return. And the third thing I wanted to pass on to you is that he talks a lot about knowing that we don't know, that the big problem for investors is when they are certain about what will happen in the future.
So when they are certain that a certain scenario will happen, they invest in a concentrated and not diversified way. So, for example, thinking that I'm sure that a certain segment will rise a lot this year, I'll go there and invest almost all my investments in that segment because I think that's the segment of the moment.
He says that most of the analyses he did throughout the book, "The Guy from the United States," include several analyses of economists, and the guy who most accurately predicted the following year was probably the one who got the most things wrong. So, the same guy who got a lot right, and it's also a macro scenario.
He says that we should never concentrate our investments based on a belief that something will happen in the future because we think we know, but we don't. So we have to understand that we don't know. Therefore, we have to build a portfolio that will be able to withstand a crisis and also a bull market; it will be diversified across various sectors.
He also says that we have to diversify geographically, so we have stocks abroad and stocks in Brazil, which is the best form of defense because, in terms of the scenario, it's very difficult to predict. For example, here in Brazil, you take the Focus report from December, the forecast for next year is difficult, right?
And then you go to the end of the year and buy; it's unlikely to close. So, the economy changes very quickly, and its forecasts change a lot. It's difficult to predict scenarios quickly, so he said that we have to build a portfolio that covers all these scenarios, and I share this idea very much. It's about having a portfolio that can handle all these moments, and how to do that with diversification.
These are the three main concepts I wanted to convey here. I found it to be at a very good level, I recommend it. I will make longer videos about these concepts in even more depth in the future, but this one quickly conveys the ideas and I highly recommend it. Best regards.
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