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hey did someone say a coupon was expiring oh that's right it's Halloween tonight thank you very much hey everyone it's me Kevin here wow midterm elections two CPI reports two job reports two fed meetings Russia resetting the grain trade and escalating War housing dropping off a cliff especially on the west coast in the last three months and oh boy some folks actually have the audacity to call for a Santa Claus rally well after all we did just have the best October since 1976 CPI or CPI depending on which side of the fence you're on minus shelter inflation has been zero for three months and bearish bats are fading from markets though Vanda track when they tell us that bearish bets are fading from markets also gives us a little hint that that could be because well so many people have so much money on the sidelines they don't need to make that many bearish bets anymore to hedge so what argument could there be for a bullish U-turn in markets well in this video we're going to talk about exactly that and we'll see how bullish meet Kevin really is let's take a look at that this video is by the way brought to you by MooMoo but more on them later look here are some reasons we might actually see a run into the end of the year and it's quite bullish look of course we have jobs data and CPI data that could disappoint us along with two fed meetings that might not give us the hints we're looking for for a reason for a U-turn but that's okay because there could be plenty of other reasons for a run the first of which is quite interesting it is the blackout period for corporate BuyBacks coming to an end that's right corporations don't like to make it seem like they bought a bunch of their own stock leading into earnings and then if the stock soars they don't want to make it seem like they traded on inside information and of course if the stock tanks they don't want to make it seem like they're idiots buying their own suck right before terrible earnings so that's why I usually have corporate blackout periods and this is leading to a belief that we're about to hit within the next week one of the biggest expirations of corporate blackout periods that could lead to a whole lot of corporate BuyBacks and that's because a lot of Corporations realize wait a minute maybe things aren't that bad yet and maybe they actually won't really get that bad after all you look at American Airlines still talking up demand going into Q4 Airbnb talking up demand going into Q3 we'll see how that changes in their next earnings report coming out this week you've still got Netflix growing subscribers I'm sure you've got big misses and disappointments at companies like meta but they had a company coming for really their change in business model you have some disappointment for e-commerce and AWS and advertising which are leading indicators of a potential recession coming next year from companies like Google and of course Amazon with AWS but a lot of optimism from companies like Amex that individuals still have a lot of money left to spend and that the cash balances that they've hoarded about 1.7 trillion dollars of extra extra savings could lead to some real buying in the stock market especially when we see and consider the fact that another reason we might see a rally going into the end of the year is tax loss harvesting a lot of folks have been tax loss harvesting in and throughout the period after Jackson Hole when Jerome Powell became a lot more bearish and really talked the market to new lows and he succeeded at doing that we thought this summer like June July would have been the bottom of the market no it ended up being September and October now we might end up hitting a new low going forward but we would need some really nasty surprises even the inflation shock that we had this morning in Europe wasn't enough to actually move Equity substantially lower consider this most markets were thinking that inflation would come in that is most economists were thinking that inflation will come in at about 10.2 percent in the Eurozone Barclays yesterday increased their estimate to 10.5 percent and actually came in at just over 10.7 really really high Eurozone inflation and Germany still eking out a positive GDP read which is quite remarkable now that success may not last but it's leaving a lot of folks scratching their head saying it's going to take a lot of dirty darkness and bad news for things to get much worse than where they sit now and that leads to the next reason markets could rally and this is a big one but before we get into the next part I want to thank today's sponsor Mumu Mumu is an advanced One-Stop trading app that makes it easy for Traders to do any and everything that you need one of the main reasons MooMoo is amazing over other platforms is because they offer the ability to trade globally meaning I could trade in Hong Kong and the US markets all from the same platform no vlogging into other platforms what a headache MooMoo also offers industrial chains at which provide a detailed picture of trending Industries like semiconductors or EVs and I don't like headaches that's why I like MooMoo keeping things simple they give you access to heat Maps as well so you can use actually visualize a Trends from the entire Market at a single time and trust me when I say these types of visualizations offered by MooMoo make understanding market trends so much quicker MooMoo also gives you real-time quotes so you can be sure the price you're seeing is an up-to-date one this feature is especially useful when people want to make sure you have up-to-date pricing again earnings foreign markets you name it you want up-to-date pricing and after hours is a great time to have update pricing it also helps you predict open market Direction and allows you to act quickly on news that occurs when the exchange is closed ining account and get 10 cashback for every 100 deposit that you make up to 50 bucks totally for free use the link down below the next reason markets could actually rally in a bullish manner is the fact that they tend to do exactly that if you look at 1962 to 2022 a 60-year period you tend to make most of your stock market returns between in October and may this is why the saying is sell in May and go away because if you invested a hundred dollars in 1962 you would have barely grown that to a hundred and eighteen dollars had you been an investor only between May and October showing you that most of the stock market returns and as demonstrated by this chart here are actually made between October and May and following a midterm election we should see some real optimism move into the markets after the election and between this November 1 to May period so not only do you have the end of the corporate blackout period but you've also got a lot of money on Sidelines tax loss harvesting leading to money that needs to be redeployed or is likely to be redeployed and you've got this phenomenon of gains between November and many now one of the reasons for this could have to do with retirement funding see towards the end of the year a lot of people sit down and say ah honey we should probably put money into our 401k or max out our match with our employer or max out our Roth IRA or even our Roth 401k and which by the way you could use to ere's a deadline to sign your docs today and Wire by the end of the week if you're accredited if you're not accredited don't worry hang out till about January and we'll get you taken care of but wait a minute if folks fund their retirement accounts most of them don't end up leaving that money sitting in cash they end up deploying that into a fund so they can set it and forget it and then the fund whether it's a mutual fund or an ETF whatever it is ends up deploying that right into the markets so you have a lot of pressure on the stock market to potentially Trend Upward at the same time as having lower levels of hedging that we've than we've previously seen before potentially leading to less pressure down on stocks and more pressure up on top of that you've got a big rationale that markets tend to Rally after the Federal Reserve meetings in fact if throughout this year you had only invested on the day the fomc meetings occurred you would have been substantially more green than a few dollar cost averaged on any other days it almost seems like it's a very simple psychology of oh Peak fear on fed day and then relaxation after the darn commentary comes out now that's not always the case we've definitely had some red days after those fed meetings but they've been green more than they've been read by a significant margin and that could actually lead to a slew of new retail buying after the FED meeting when Peak fear of the FED meeting and Peak hedging for the FED meeting goes away we start seeing the leftover shorts and hedges cover and potentially activate a bull run for the Santa Claus rally now the other other thing to keep in mind is markets generally bottom share from companies that means we would generally expect that if we're going to get really bad earnings from companies in Q2 of 2023 and maybe we fall back into a recession since technically we had a recession q1 Q2 of 2022 now technically we're out of that since GDP has gone positive and it might go negative again next year we might see that bottom in EPS come Q2 Q3 of 2023 and the bottom of the stock market should according to Goldman Sachs come about six months before that on top of that the market has historically bottomed out when the Federal Reserve has u-turned to a dovish stance now that does not necessarily mean reduce the pace of rate hikes it means oh inflation has you turned okay we can relax substantially now the first time they set this precedent was after Black Monday and they set the precedent for bailing out the market and that's when they marked the bottom of the market of the crash of 1987.
now back in 2003 they marked the bottom of the.com era by bailing out markets in the spring of 2003 they did so again marking in the bottom of the stock market with their actions in February of 2009 again in December of 2018 and again in March of 2023 so where's that Federal Reserve U-turn and will markets try to pre-lead when the Federal Reserve flip-flops and could we potentially see a bottom actually come before the fed's dovish U-turn probably since we've seen a lot of bear Market rallies rev up for that Davis U-turn just hasn't come yet gotten punished and hopefully one of these times we actually do get that dumbest pivot from the FED of course that does mean this next rally that we could see over the next two months could just be another bear Market rally it could be an opportunity to do very prudent things like diversifying your Investments get some of your money put aside into treasuries that are yielding you over four percent or maybe even into house hack where we are parking money into treasuries yielding over four percent until we decide to strike on real estate which could happen sooner or later than we expect but we want to make sure we're prepared so we get the best deals possible and increase shareholder value and increase the value of the company house hack most important thing stay out of debt in these times you don't want to be getting margin called in the event that we have another 20 downside ahead of us just like you don't want to be getting reamed by doing a bunch of uh you know YOLO bearish bets and put options and then you get reamed by a rally that ends up getting you called the last thing you want to do is speculate in this environment because as a top Trader for JP Morgan put it last week on a phone call you could have done anything over the last 10 months but historically over the last 10 months the best thing you could have done would have been the most ridiculous thing the most unexpected thing because that has been what has done well over the last 10 months the most ridiculous unexpected things now some people like to brag about how they've been perfect in this market the reality is nobody's been perfect so don't feel bad if you're looking at other people post Reddit posts or Wall Street bets YOLO bets and they seem like they're hitting the lottery and they've got everything perfect they are either extremely lucky or they're lying this has been a very very difficult market and even if you've adjusted and you've had slightly more wins than you've had losses you're doing better even if you adjusted and sold and rebought and you were able to avoid some losses you're doing better than others and not that this is a game of Relativity it's just to be very clear this is a very tough time this is when the true psychology of money comes out and the people who can really withstand these sorts of markets actually build their cue their quantities of positions that they want to hold and own and that they expect to build substantial returns over the years going forward look ultimately inflation could be stickier and lasts a lot longer than we expect and that does mean the Federal Reserve could end up hiking a lot higher than markets are pricing in now Federal Reserve told us 4.6 percent and this morning they started hinting that we could go to 5.25 to 5.5 percent them that could lead to a really dirty new bottom for the stock market although the market at this point already seems to be getting used to this idea that all right it's going to take longer rates are going to go higher buckle up and get ready so make sure you take advantage of the MooMoo sponsor down below make sure you sign up for the courses on building your wealth with that coupon code we've got a Halloween coupon code it's a great coupon code you want to take advantage of that before we get into November because the pricing will be changing and folks my goodness have a wonderful Halloween
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