저자: PietrosManeos · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 『The Most Important Thing』을 읽고 소개하는 영상으로, 책의 유용함을 인정하면서도 앞선 영상에서 지적했던 인덱스 투자·알고리즘 투자 관련 두 대목에 대해서는 여전히 비판적 입장을 유지한다. 인덱스 투자 비판: 막스가 인덱스 투자를 '평균 수익에 안주하는 것'이라 말한 부분은 잭 보글, JL 콜린스 등의 데이터와 달리 액티브 운용의 70~90%가 지수를 못 이긴다는 점에서 틀렸다고 주장. 알고리즘 투자 비판: 투자 판단을 컴퓨터나 알고리즘에 맡길 수 없다는 주장은 르네상스 테크놀로지스와 짐 사이먼스의 사례를 간과한 것이라고 지적. 책의 좋은 대목: 1998~1999년 데이트레이더들의 단기 매매가 장기 보유보다 수익이 적다는 점, 버블은 진실의 한 조각(nugget of truth)에서 시작된다는 점, 거시경제 예측에 집착하기보다 미시적 가치투자가 낫다는 점, 예측가를 '안다고 믿는 학파(I know school)'와 '모른다고 보는 학파'로 나눈 구분, 2020년 팬데믹 폭락 때의 심리적 교훈(탐욕·공포·군중 심리를 이성으로 극복해야 한다는 점)을 높이 평가. 진행자는 자신의 주식 보유 경험도 언급하며 2020년 폭락 시 항공·크루즈·호텔·에너지주를 매수해 계좌가 크게 불어났다고 말한다. 또한 주택 가격 급등을 버블 사례로 언급하며 본인 주택 가치도 1년 새 두 배 가까이 올랐다고 소개한다. 영상 말미에는 막스의 다른 저서 『Mastering the Market Cycle』을 읽을 예정이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
all right welcome back to pietro's manus finance um this video is a follow-up um to a video i did a few days ago on howard marx's book uh just finished it actually tonight the title is the most important thing uncommon sense for the thoughtful investor and i was pretty critical in the first video as i came across two particular passages literally on the first two pages that i felt to just be blatantly wrong um but as i got through the book i really enjoyed it and i think it's worthwhile for all investors or would-be investors or people that are trying to increase their investing iq uh you know he's definitely an important figure in modern investing uh he comes highly recommended by buffett which is actually why i picked uh picked this book up and i can see why he comes highly recommended by buffett there's uh almost a mutual admiration society he references buffett often and he actually does these memos that are redolent of uh warren buffett's uh berkshire hathaway annual letters annual reports um so you can very much see buffett's influence um on howard marks another thing that i noted was he often references to lev and the scene nicholas tillette so he references buffett a lot he references to a lot of course benjamin graham as well uh and so yes it was definitely definitely an enlightening uh illuminating book uh and i recommend it what i wanted to do is just to read a couple passages the last time i read the passages that i felt were wrong just to refresh for those of you who didn't see that video um he he criticized indexing as settling for average returns instead of settling for above average returns uh there you can just look at jack bogle jl collins look at the data that the whole statement you're settling for average by buying the index is just not the case because you're going to outperform depending on the time period 70 80 90 of active management and then the second thing was is that you can't defer investing to a computer or an algorithm and i and i kind of just basically said has not heard of renaissance technologies and jim simmons so those are my two critiques uh on the first two pages but let me let me read now things that i uh very much enjoyed so on page 17 here uh he's talking about day traders and i just thought it was interesting why he he described it it seems clear that momentum investing isn't a cerebral approach to investing the greatest example came in 1998-1999 with the rise of people called day traders most were non-professional investors drawn from other walks of life by the hope for easy money in the tech media telecom stock room they rarely held positions overnight since doing so would require them to pay for them several times a day they would try to guess whether a stock they've been watching would rise or fall in the next few hours i've never understood how people reach conclusions like these i liken it to try to guess whether the next person to come around the corner will be male or female the way i see it day traders considered themselves successful if they bought a stock at 10 and sold it at 11 bought it back the next week at 24 and sold at 25 and bought it a week later at 39 and sold at 40.
if you can't see the flaw in this that the trader made three dollars in a stock that appreciated by 30 you probably shouldn't read the rest of this book so that was a beautiful passage there and yeah just sort of that idea of you know you're you're making uh pennies when you could be making dollars essentially you know you're you're trading in and out but if you just bought the stock initially and held it your gain is much more than than trying to close your position at the end of the day and guess which direction is going to go the next 10 seconds or so so i thought that was a great passage there um the next one is on page 28 and is on bubbles so there it is it's essential to understand that fundamental value will be only one of the factors determining a securities price on the day you buy it try to have psychology and technicals on your side as well the polar opposite of conscientious value investing is mindlessly chasing bubbles in which the relationship between price and value is totally ignored all bubbles start with some nugget of truth i like that line all bubbles start with some nugget of truth and he gives three examples here tulips are beautiful and rare in 17th century holland second one the internet is going to change the world third one real estate can keep up with inflation and you can always live in a house a few clever investors figure out or perhaps even foresee these truths invest in the asset and begin to show profits then others catch on to the idea or just notice that people are making money and they buy as well lifting the assets price but as the price rises further and investors become more inflamed by the possibility of easy money they think less and less about whether the price is fair it's an extreme rendition of the phenomenon i described earlier people should like something less when its price rises but in in investing they often like it more i'm just a quick little aside you know we're kind of dealing with that on the single family housing market now uh 2021 just my own example i'm the home i'm sitting in uh i purchased it last year uh september of 2020 for 730 000.
it's now probably worth 1.1 million 1.3 million so it's almost doubled within a year uh the only major addition i've done to it is paint and it's doubled in value so uh that's that's interesting i'm not i'm not gonna sell it because i love living here i have my garden as you'll see in the subsequent videos in the next few months with my cherokee purples and uh my jimmy nard cherokee purple tomatoes and my jimmy nardello peppers so even if you gave me a bigger house without a garden i wouldn't be happier so anyway so let's go on to the third but yeah i just like that line again um in all bubbles there's a nugget of truth that starts starts it and then this is this is um a passage i very much enjoyed and it's because i always say this you know a lot of people know that i invest and so they'll ask me oh what do you think the market's going to do and you know you think the market is overvalued and uh undervalued or you think it's it's uh the interest rates are gonna it's gonna rise and then this is gonna happen and um you know i've never really had an interest in kind of global macro market calls um and i've always felt that the money's really in the micro not in the macro and again i'm sure they're very there are successful global macro investors um it's just not something that i've ever been attracted to i've been much more attracted to the benjamin graham the intrinsic value of something value investing overall fundamental investing dividend investing as opposed to making market calls um and so when i turn on like bloomberg or cnbc you'll just see people just like throw out predictions all the time um yeah it's just not not for me but anyways so let's uh let's go here it's right on page 1 20.
yeah so he's in he's in agreement with me here he said it's no secret that i have a limited opinion of forecasters and those who resolutely believe in them in fact i've come up with a label for these people most of the investors i've met over the years have belonged to the quote i know end quote school it's easy to identify them they think knowledge of the future direction of economies interest rates markets and widely followed mainstream stocks is essential for investment success they're confident it can be achieved they know they can do it they're aware that lots of other people are trying to do it too but they figure either a everyone can be successful at the time or b only a few could be but that they're among them they're comfortable investing based on their opinions regarding the future they're also glad to share their views with others even correct forecasts should be of such great value that no one would give them away gratis they rarely look back to rigorously assess their record as forecasters um i'll go on but i i can't let it slide here when i read this i think of nouriel roubini um you know he's been wrong so many times uh and yet roubini gets because he's he's negative and angry uh he so he makes good tv uh he gets brought on all the the cable news shows uh and and so that that last line they rarely look back to rigorously assess their record as forecasters and i just think of roubini right there sorry um anyways confident is the key word for describing members of the school um i would also say those who are negative often times get more attention as well being angry and negative you're you're gonna just get that little sound bite on cable news anyways confident is the key word for describing members of the school for the i don't know school on the other hand the word especially when dealing with the macro future is guarded its adherents generally believe you can't know the future you don't have to know the future and the proper goal is to do the best job the best possible job of investing in the absence of that knowledge as a member of the i know school you get to opine on the future and maybe have people take notes you may be sought out for your opinions and considered a desirable dinner guest especially when the stock market's going up join the i don't know school and the results are more mixed you'll soon tire of saying i don't know to friends and strangers alike after a while even relatives will stop asking where you think the market is going you'll never get to enjoy the one in a thousand moment when your forecast comes true and the wall street journal runs your picture on the other hand you'll be spared all those times when forecasts miss the mark as well as the losses that can result from investing based on overrated knowledge of the future so and i'll share one more uh passage that i really enjoyed and i think this passage is one you know it's a shame i didn't have my youtube channel set up during the the panic of 2020 because it would have been fascinating i feel to see my account going down by hundreds of thousands of dollars and yet instead of panic selling i'm buying all the cruise lines i'm buying the airlines even against one of my heroes buffett you sold i'm buying buying hotels i'm buying energy and now that two hundred thousand dollar account is a six hundred and fifty thousand dollar account it's gone up four times you know three times since then so but it would have just been been been fascinating to see it on the way down um and see how how uh emotionally strong i was at the time or not because you can see people that just capitulate at a certain point and this would be a great passage to read in the next panic whether it's 2022 2023 2027 2030 whenever that happens this would be something to keep in your back pocket the power of psychological influences must never be underestimated greed fear suspension of disbelief conformism envy ego and capitulation are all part of human nature and their ability to compel action is profound especially when they're at extremes and shared by the herd they'll influence others and the thoughtful investor will feel them as well none of us should expect to be immune and insulated from them although we will feel them we must not succumb rather we must recognize them for what they are and stand against them reason must overcome emotion um beautiful passage by mr howard marks there and yeah i would put this print this out put this in your back pocket and when the market from 35 000 goes to 38 000 and then we go from let's say 38 000 down to and i'm not a global macro guy here predicting it i'm just saying when that happens i have no idea when it will happen i have no idea how brutal it will be but when we go from 35 or 38 000 uh to 30 000 to 25 000 20 000 um this would be a great passage to read i actually posted um on my seeking alphas at the time rhudard uh kipling's if uh read by the actor michael kane and i think that's a a beautiful poem to read when you're hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars in market crashes um so anyway so that's uh yeah so that's howard marks here it is um i'll put the link to this book in um in the description area and i definitely highly recommend it i actually just ordered his other book now um just a few minutes ago i believe it's mastering the market cycle or mastering market cycles so very uh excited to read that as well so anyways that's it for this evening um the market's open tomorrow holidays over uh anyways take care guys ciao
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