저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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8월 초 글로벌 매도세는 엔화 캐리 트레이드 청산(BOJ 금리인상 여파)에서 시작됐다. 나스닥 3일 최대 낙폭, VIX 65 이상이지만 실업률 4.3%로 경기침체 아님. 연준 금리인하 국면에서 매도 플레이북을 활용해 기회를 찾으라고 함. 엔비디아는 블랙웰 지연 우려에도 매수 관점 유지, 애플 보유 권고. 인텔은 매도, 스콧츠미라클그로는 PER 26배로 패스, UPS는 더 이상 추천하지 않음. 모건스탠리 등 고배당주 매수 아이디어 제시.
다듬은 글
ay save you little money my job is not just to explain but to teach and of course entertain so call me at 1800 743 CBC or tweet me at Jim Kramer I know days like today make you want to cry yourself to sleep but you know what this is indeed a normal yet incredibly nasty sell off it's exactly what you'd expect at this point in the rate cycle the point where the fed's about to start cutting rates to bolster the economy but the economy is going down and that means we can use our Playbook Cramer selloff Playbook to protect ourselves and take advantage of this decline yes take advantage of it not walk away from it we're looking at the worst three days for loss in the NASDAQ in more than 2 years including today's 3.43% nose dive the D and the sp500 didn't do much better D plunged 1034 yes that's right 1,34 points S&P plummeting 3% all vicious enough to get you thinking well why should I stay in this market and yet history says that's exactly what you have to do so what is the Playbook here first you need to figure out what's going wrong starting with the epicenter of the damage find the epicenter in this case the epicenter well it's not here the selloff started in Japan with an eai down 12% last night 12% in one night a horrendous decline that's the worst since the crash of 87 that dubing was related to overextended money managers who got caught with their pants down when the bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates these fund managers had borrow money to make bets worldwide so they got crushed worldwide including here when things went against them and they couldn't come up with enough Capital to satisfy the margin clerks and there's nothing nothing more dangerous than owning a stock that your fellow shareholders are being forced to sell sell sell sell we don't know when they're going to be finished so it's so hard to call a bottom unfortunately this Market can mount a real rebound it cannot do that until we know these sellers are done unwinding the trades and that sometimes including this time it's impossible to gain hence our cautionary constructive approach tonight on may have bunny second you have to analyze what people think is wrong because it's important to know what they are blaming I I call this the pin the tail on the sell off even though I may not agree with it so often the money manager set the ton are actually AC acting on mistaken information but they run a lot of capital which lets them control the discourse even if they're Knuckleheads there are three reasons why these ill advised people are selling reason a they think the FED screwed up so badly last week and they should have cut rates and cut rates hard these sellers argue that the FED should have realized that the economy was weakening that consumers own the ropes and employment has slowed as we know from jobs report well I agree that the FED probably should have cut I honestly don't think a quarter point would have really mattered believe me if things get truly ugly well guess what japal will cut rates he is not an intransigent stuffed animal he's a living breeding fed chief who's got Horse Sense B in the wake of tech earnings there's a widespread belief that the Magnificent Seven are hopelessly overvalued I think that this one's already overdone in some cases depending upon which of the seven you're talking about as I see it meta deserves credit for having a real return on investment of AI Apple had a terrific quarter in fact Apple's been able to take advantage of all the money Microsoft's spending on AI putting Microsoft's platform to work for its customers for an undisclosed sum sure I know Amazon okay okay not a perfect quarter they said the customers held back from spaning because they're distracted by our wild political situation also the Olympics now maybe Amazon's wrong but they are not dissembling people I trust them I trust the reasoning they've actually never bagged me also I'm not giving it up on Nvidia just because an article said that its latest high-end semiconductor iteration called Blackwell is late they're in quiet period they can't defend themselves my information is that nothing has really changed from what manag said at the beginning of July Blackwell will ship in volume in the second half if that's the case well we won't notice the delay Plus at these levels I think Nvidia is a buy even the if the new chip is late because the demand for the current ship the h200 is insane still the rumors are swirling at Blackwell the device runs too hot we won't get clarity until Nvidia reports at the end of August which is a mighty long time for this great company stock to be in limbo so do not be aggressive let it come to you it is coming down reason C why people are selling Warren Buffett sold half of his bur berer halfway share in apple something that couldn't be predicted he just exol his virtues back in the May annual meeting did the something change we don't know given the buffets a huge shareholder still by the way Peerless reputation it is freaking people out that the guy's dumping half of his position you know what it did CA wholesale dumping in the mag stock itself even as the companies with that got a tremendous runway for the rest of the year I say for the moment there are no Tech safe havens if you're going to buy buy slowly and in small increments in pyramid Style please remember I disagree with the Bears on this one I think Apple should be owned not traded same goes for NVIDIA believe it or not but I recognize their stocks are still way up and many investors just want to take profits while they have them I'm not blind the we this both they can fall further they probably will if you can't take the pain the house of pain then get the heck out of it now after you identifi the epicenter of the sell off and how investors are justifying you need to figure out what you can buy that's outside the blast radius we must always remain constructive and opportunistic even with our eyes open now many people believe that because we've gotten some weaker backround numbers we're going to have recession you don't have a recession with 4.3% unemployment rate historically a ridiculously low number you don't have a recession when the economy is still creating jobs and are no big bankruptcies to me that means you can actually buy the banks yes I know Warren Buffett is selling Bank of America that does not mean you should get rid of the banks it may mean that they've been trash for no reason other than is selling that's a good opportunity you know what I like the stock of Morgan Stanley for my trust it's got 4% yield I think there'll be more Acquisitions and IPOs in the next year this one folded like a cheap suit in the last three days hideous action it could kind of end here the selling with a high yield lower yield environment it's worth a try you can buy stocks that yield more than 4% take advantage of the sudden decline in interest rates which makes high yielding stocks the best game in town for income hey you know what stay tuned I've got some others to buy fourth make sure you have ample cash to take advantage of the next decline if there is one I believe there will be you need sell the bad to fund the good you do not want to sell the good to fund the bad uh we know that it's time to put money to work but we still haven't done anything for the childel trust that means that we've cut down our cash position not yet we don't want to put too much money to work at one level we did not put net new money to work today it wasn't enough it wasn't low enough there's still room to fall we don't know if the Panic comes back we don't know what's going on in Japan we had a fear level above 65 this morning as measured by the volatility index or vix we haven't had that since March of 220 of 2020 and the height of the co panic I think we got to be ready for more fear fifth the market needs to get really oversold before you put a lot of money in work we aren't even there yet we weren't even negative on the S&P oscillator I follow until today it went out tonight at minus 2.47 that's the start buy something here you have to be prepared to buy more into weat this because well the liquidation continues I would be let's say circumspect I would be more comfortable with a minus5 reading as a sign of a bable pan panic notus 2.
47 maybe early finally we need to know if there's anything looming that we just can't see right now I don't see it in America the commercial real estate market I think that fear is overdone you have presidential race I'm not worried that a Harris Administration would be anti- bus her advisors include real business people something President Biden never embraced however she does favor a much higher corporate tax and that's not even no one's even talking about that I don't see any big bankruptcies or disruptions of the system nothing that is systemic we did have excellent earnings tonight from CSX paler and Lumen the last one's a real shocker those don't Char with the negativity or the recession thesis we do have a lot of earnings coming up hey these could be telling caterpillar Builder First Source Uber tomorrow morning Airbnb super mic work tomorrow night they could all Impact trading so could Shopify Emerson Robin Hood Wednesday Eli Lily data dog the trade desk they help customers Place web advertising on that that comes up Thursday that could be make a break for Google which lost a suit about a antitrust suit today any one of these stocks will be used as part of the prism of recession no recession but the bottom line if we check every box we recognize that this hideous decline will ultimately ultimately that's the opper work be more of an opportunity to buy the region sell then you should put out your shopping list get ready start picking your favorite names uh we are doing it for the investing Club in good time you should join just to see what we think the coast is clear we haven't yet remember you only want to buy the stocks that you'd be willing to buy more of on the way down otherwise I can tell you right now you will get blown out in disappointment and anger let's go to Regina in Florida Regina hi Jim how you doing today I doing well Regina how about you good good okay my question is I'm a long-term investor and I own Intel after last week's report I'm down about 35% my question is should I sell and reinvest into another stock wait for it to go back you should sell Intel you should sell Intel they have no credibility whatsoever uh I don't their balance sheet is miserable could it bounce I mean you could sell half tomorrow and then hope it bounce is a 23 but that's all you're going to get and I owe you Regina to say that I can't just say you know what it's fine because I don't believe it is fine all right let's go to Joe my home state of New Jersey Joe hello Mr Kramer I want to let you know surf fishing at Island Beach State Park's been pretty good catching a lot of fluke Keepers uh the fluke are biting the fluke are biting okay I caught a Porgy the other day I to throw it back my wife says she can't hurt a fish next time I fish she better she better be canning I mean if she can maybe I can catch something what's going on uh with uh Scott's Miracle Grow at near highs with better than average price targets and a nice dividend is it a buy okay uh it is a seasonal product they had a good season it yields 3.7 they do have by the way some very environmentally friendly stuff these days I say it's too high it sells at 26 times earnings I can buy high quality Tech at 26 times earnings I'm going to say pass let's go to Thomas in Georgia Thomas hey Jim big shout out to you and and your entire team that works for the investing Club from the bottom of my heart and the top of my brokat thank man we are cracking the stuff you need help we are there to help let's go to work yeah today in particular lots of comfort coming from you guys hey um my yeah my question is about UPS uh I'm a longtime shareholder it's one of my core positions and I do trade around that position my last sale was back in 22 at around $230 I haven't really wanted to add to it as it came down and down and down but now it looks really attractive but you're you're fond of the old adage when the facts change I I changed my mind right is UPS not the company it once was or is it Thomason is not it is not the company once was H pedex is a better company now I've always liked the stock of ups but I cannot recommend it now it's very interesting I couldn't recommend UPS I said that Scotts Miracle Grow is too high and I said Intel must be sold so I guess I am part of the group that sees that things are wrong not that things are right but we're going to be patient and we're going to get there constructive criticism of this Market is fine days like today tend to scare people away from the market that's what happens we get these days every year there are something like this I need you to think of what this will UL be a buying opportunity emphasis on Ultimate but I know that it's too soon so far and people are going to sell if this Market goes up at all tomorrow morning they are going to right into it all right don't may have money tonight in a downturn like we had today your biggest enemies are your fellow shareholders I'm sharing where their mindsets are then we're all about finding opportunity in the face of panic so with the 10 you're now yielding below 4% know what I'm doing I'm finding stocks that yield above 4% and I give you that they will have peace of mind and a market meltdown hey by speak speak of you I'm seeing if Tanger SKT could be the right re for your portfolio in this environment I'm very attracted to it we have the CEO on I prepare like no one else so you can be prepared for any Market when bears growl at the market I know you're tired of it and I'm tired of it we get used to this sell Kramer Roars right back it's abundantly clear that right now it feels like no price is safe enough to buy stocks may be down but mad money is never out my mission is to make you money stick with Kramer and let's find your portfolio's next big winner together
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