저자: Dr.Pete · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 변동성이 커서 돌파 매매보다 박스권 하단의 매도 클라이맥스 이후 반등 신호를 노리는 전략이 낫다는 기술적 분석 영상. 핵심 주장: 지난 여름부터 약 80~90달러 폭의 큰 박스권이 형성되어 있으며, 박스 하단마다 대량 거래를 동반한 매도 클라이맥스가 나타났다. 매수 근거: 대량 음봉 이후 하락이 멈추고 양봉 마감이 나오는 것을 매수 신호로 보며, 최근 대량 음봉 구간 부근 재테스트 후 힘이 붙는 지점을 매수 고려 구간으로 제시. 현재 상황: 최근 급등은 돌파로 보이나 추격 매수는 위험하다고 판단. 최근 이틀간 매도세가 우위여서 조정 후 강세 신호를 기다리는 것이 리스크 대비 보상이 낫다고 봄. 시장 전망: 시장은 신고가 경신에 어려움을 겪는 모습이며, 다음 주 뉴스 이벤트가 많아 가격에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있어 특히 테슬라 같은 종목은 소규모 포지션을 권장. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 조정 후 반등 가능성에 무게를 두나 구체적인 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi this dr. Pete with trade rounds tonight we're gonna look at the Tesla daily chart Tesla volatility is very problematic to trade on the one hand it can lead to significant profits and on the other hand you can be whips out very quickly into a losing position with such stocks we prefer to play potential bottoms rather than looking for breakouts we find the breakouts to be extremely risky of a chance of a pullback whereas we think we do better trying to find these selling climaxes within a range and looking for signs of strength and this is how our Wyckoff training becomes quite valuable and we can illustrate that on this chart here so we're looking at Tesla again on the daily chart and we're going back to last summer and what we can see is an extremely big range of about 80 90 dollars with some downtrend to it but what we see with each bottom within each cycle is that at the bottom of the range if you look down at the volume bars there's a climax of selling with very high volume well above average in red you see it here you see it here you see it here you see it here and again you see it here and so basically what you look for is not to buy the first time that you see a big red volume bar for example there was one here but this wasn't the bottom it was the next bar to where you saw that the selling stopped and then you saw evidence of buying here in this blue bar where you can see the notch here was the open they sold down below the low of those two bars and they closed the stock well off the bottom near the high of the range of the day that was a good sign that the buyers were now in control so if you look at more recent price action here we see this major selling climax here and again there's a series of red bars with very high red volume where the stock really no longer progresses downward and then you see a finish off the bottom here and then the stock really moves up here off the bottom and although you came back down you're really just retesting we often see with these big bars on high volume a retest somewhere into the area of this bar it can even go down towards the bottom but then strength comes back in around here and you see a good amount of volume there so right in around here was a good place to consider buying the stock now again as we mentioned we don't like to buy the potential breakout so you could call this a breakout here when the stock moved up this huge amount with again another musk conversation announcement and what we really don't like is the past two days if you look at the position of the clothes here and the position of the clothes here there's been a decent amount of volume and the sellers are winning so this is a place of pause and we'd like to see it pull back maybe even a little bit more and then show a sign of strength which would give us we think a better reward to risk and that's sort of how we would like to play Tesla although again we would stress the market seems to be in a bit of a struggle to attain new highs there's going to be a lot of news next week with risk for the news influencing price movement significantly and so we suggest small positions especially on a stock like Tesla we hope you have a good week of trading and we'll talk to you again soon
댓글 0