저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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코스트코·홈디포·스타벅스·맥도날드 등 고품질 대형주는 조정 시 싸게 살 기회이므로 하락 시 매수해야 한다고 주장. 코스트코 미국 동일점 매출 5.5% 성장을 근거로 주가 하락은 과도한 오해라고 봄. 홈디포는 리모델링·인수로 포지션 강화 중이며, 스타벅스는 브라질 관세 영향이 원두 비용의 10% 미만이라 과도한 우려라 봄. 베리브 홀딩스는 아마존 액체냉각 발표에도 매력적이라 재매수 기회로 언급. 트윌리오(TWLO)는 큰 상승 후 부정적 견해로 일부 차익실현 권유.
다듬은 글
[. I do make friends. I'm just trying to make you extra money. My job is not just to entertain, but to teach you. And we're doing that tonight. So, call me 1800 743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. There is never a good time to buy the great ones. When they're going up, you're chasing. When they're going down, you're buying into a value trap or you're trying to catch a falling knife.
Look, that's that's how so much of Wall Street sees this job. If you buy it anytime, it's probably going to be the wrong time. But on a day where we hit some more records, Dow gaining 192 points has to be advancing 027% and the Nasdaq edging up ever so slightly 0.09%. I think we have to try to distinguish between stocks that go down because they should be going down and stocks that go down because of a widespread misperception.
Let's operate on the latter. This morning, for example, there's a lot of talk about Costco. Same store sales not great failing wisdom. Costco, which reported June monthly sales last night after the close, delivered 5.5% US comparable sales growth ex gasoline when the street was looking for six. Oo, disappointing, right?
How disappointing? How about enough to send the stock down almost 12 points today? Is that wrong or is that right? I think it's wrong. I like Costco the store very much and I'm always looking for a chance to buy Costco the stock on weakness for the travel trust. Tomorrow we have an annual meeting for the investing club which you can follow along with if you're a member.
And boy is it ever tempting if we didn't own so much Costco already to do some buy. Why? Well, Costco's been a longtime position of the trust because I love to shop there and I love the business model where the company offers a limited number of goods at ultra low prices and makes its money on your membership dues.
The most articulate defender of Costco was the late Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's right-hand man on the board of Brooksshire Hathway, who passed away nearly two years ago. Oh, Munger was an admitted addict of Costco and a big shareholder. He repeatedly told followers, quote, "I'm never going to sell a share end quote, no matter how high the stock went." in 2023 he said uh quote the trouble with Costco is 40 times PE or price earnings ratio but except for that it's pretty damn com good company end quote now the stock trades at north of 50 times earnings right now higher than when Charlie talked about it but more important it's now down more than 100 points from its highly always said he wanted to buy quote wonderful companies at fair prices end quote rather than fair companies at wonderful prices end quote To me, Costco's 100 point discount from its high is about as good as you're going to get.
JP Morgan, which has a bio on the stock, says that Costco has been a quote source of funds for big institutions of late, but they think that's about to come to an end as the year-over-year comparisons are going to get easier. Now, go back to what I said about how much of Wall Street acts like there's never a good time to buy these highquality stocks.
I think the truth is the opposite. There's always a good time to buy shares in a great company and it's when the conventional wisdom says that a 5.5% same store sales number much better than almost any other company I follow is somehow a real shortfall. I think Costco is an amazing company and this is the kind of buying opportunity that just doesn't come along very often.
Oh, let me give you another one. Home Depot. Now, here's a company seen as being synonymous with the housing market and the housing market stinks. Oh, not enough homes being sold. Got to be bad, right? Well, wait a second. This stock's now been in the doghouse for ages. It's also why we've been buying for the Chapel Trust.
Like Costco, people don't seem to want to buy Home Depot unless it's within it spitting distance of it highs. They want to buy Home Depot when it's hot. I want to buy Home Depot when it's not. First, let's deal with this big misperception about Home Depot. It's not just about home sales. It's geared to remodeling and renovation.
That's why the Despot just spent $18.5 billion dollars to buy a company called SRS Distribution last year that helps contractors with building materials, mainly roofing and pool supplies and landscaping. They just spent 5.5 billion on GMS, a drywall, steel framing and ceiling products distributor. In other words, in the last year, Home Depot's only improved its position in remodel and renovation while it waits for the housing market to come back.
Now, why does this matter? Because you don't get many chances to buy the stock of Home Depot at a considerable discount to its high. People would rather buy Home Depot at $439 as high from last year than 373 where it's trading now. I look at it like this. How often can you buy a quality franchise like Home Depot when it's not running?
When it's not your it's high. Not often. This morning Starbucks came up as part of the conversation squawk on the street as a source of uh coffee beans uh for from Brazil. And what's going to happen now that President Trump just hit up Brazil with a 50% tariff? Ah, just one more reason to sell Starbucks, right?
Wrong. The actual price of coffee beans represents less than 10% of the cost of a cup of coffee. Sure, Brazil is important, but Starbucks with its incredible scale is better suited than anyone else to be able to deal with and find cheaper source of beans. More important, Starbucks is another stock that people want to buy when it's hot and stay away from when it's cold, even if it's being run by a proven commodity who knows how to execute a turnaround.
I remember the turn that CEO Brian Nickel engineered at Chipotle before he went to Starbucks after some nasty foodborne illnesses sent the stock in a tail spin. Nickel came in at the beginning of 2018 when Chipotle stock was at around $6, right? Keep that in mind. He left for Starbucks a little less than a year ago when Chipotle was at $56.
Are we really supposed to believe that the price of Brazilian coffee beans is going to reverse that turnaround that he's organizing? I think that's insane. Stock's down more than 20 points from its high. Even if it's quickly rebounded from today's low, this is the right time to buy. Starbucks goes down a little more, you get to buy more.
Finally, consider McDonald's. Now, here's another company that many managers seem to think has lost its way. But with the stock going from a prenil positive performer to a real dog of late this morning, Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from hold to buy. What caught my eye here? I've been waiting for someone who didn't care for the stock to go positive.
In other words, that person's been right. And that's what we got when analyst Christine Chow went positive. Why? Well, for the same reason why you always have to buy the stock of McDonald's when it goes out of favor. Mickey De's has, and I quote the excellent report, the scale marketing digital advantage to successfully navigate through this environment.
Does this mean we've caught the bottom in McDonald's or Costco or Homekeep or Starbucks? Of course not. Nobody's that good. But what's most important is that you aren't buying these highquality franchises anywhere near the top. When you buy at these levels, you're minimizing the likelihood of starting with a bad cost basis, which is what usually happens to investors who chase things on the way up and then get discouraged and end up sell on weakness.
Yeah. The people who buy high and sell low must not be my viewers. Here's the bottom line. The great ones never come cheap, but they can be cheaper when they're Well, let's say where they can be cheaper from where they were. See, sometimes all you can hope for is get a chance to buy a stock of a terrific company at a discount when the market is at an all-time high.
Let's go to Nikki in Louisiana. Nikki, hi Jim. I'm a new retail trader because being a teacher just doesn't pay the bills. But I watch you every day and try to learn. And what I've learned is that AI and clean energy are hot topics, and I do mean hot. So, I looked for a company who specializes in cooling things.
But that stock took a cold dive in response to Amazon's liquid cooling innovation announcement today and poured cold water all over my plan to buy Verive Holdings. Well, we spent a lot of time today, Jeff Mars and I and and and Ben Sto talking about how really significant that Amazon note is. Now, I happen to think virtue is a fabulous company.
Uh and I believe that you're getting a chance to buy it again. I think that Amazon has been known to say that they haven't they've done Nvidia's chips. They've look Amazon makes a lot of very very good products. They do it themselves. But I I think that right now Verto is probably hard to spice. Jensen Wong, by the way, with the White House today.
And you know what? I bet you the president didn't trash that guy. No, I bet you congratulated him. Let's go to Peter in Colorado. Peter, hey, Jimmy Chill. It's great to talk with you. The Chillman is in the house. How can I help you? Yeah. Uh, love this company. I love the CEO. Um, during the pandemic, the stock went way up and then it came crashing back down to earth during the interest rate hike a few years back.
Uh, Jimmy, what are your thoughts on ticker symbol TWWL Twilio? All right, this is really hard because they've made a comeback. They've made a comeback and a lot of people talking positive about the product, but right now I am negative about the space they are in about cloud computing. It's a it's not really a SAS business and Ben Reser, sorry.
I know that you don't like the SAS business is a software business, but I will say this. I think it's had a really big really big run and that that's just been a terrific opportunity to be able to maybe take some off the table. Uh, you know, I wish I could be more positive, but what a run it's already had.
Now, you got to understand that the stocks of great companies never come cheap, but when you get a chance to buy them at a discount, you got to pull the trigger. Oh, man. Money tonight. Levis's reported after the bell and I'm running through the quarter where the company's top grass. Then we've been keeping up with our IPOs.
And tonight we're talking hinge hell to see if this AI healthcare play could be good for your health and of course your wealth. And data company 100X has its finger on the pulse of the consumer. Tonight they have some astounding observations that I want to share with you, including one on 52- week high Southwest Airlines and its myriad of changes. You don't want to miss it. .
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