Fed needs to do 25-basis-point hikes, 50 would be a 'disaster,' says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 시장은 과도한 비관에 쏠려 있어 반대로 움직일 가능성이 높고, 연준은 금리를 25bp만 올려야 하며 50bp는 재앙이라는 주장. 시장 심리: 많은 사람들이 극단적으로 비관적이며, 이런 쏠림은 반대 방향으로 흔히 반전된다. 최근 인플레이션 뉴스의 작은 호재도 시장이 긍정적으로 받아들이고 있음. 연준 정책 기대: 다음 주 연준의 피벗(정책 전환) 기대가 중요하다. 다만 연준은 25bp 인상에 그쳐야 하며 50bp는 재앙이다. 또한 연준은 정책이 작동하고 종료 지점에 가까워졌다는 메시지를 내야 하며, '아직 할 일이 많다'는 식의 말은 시장이 좋게 받아들이지 않을 것. 통화량 및 수익곡선: 2022년 통화량(M2) 증가율은 대공황 이후 최저 수준. 장단기 금리 역전은 40년 이상 만에 가장 크며, 경기침체의 가장 신뢰할 만한 단일 지표. 연준이 역전을 더 키우려는 이유는 이해하기 어렵다. 인플레이션 전망: 1970년대식 '스톱앤고' 상황이 아니다. 최신 주택 데이터 기준으로는 현재 인플레이션이 마이너스다. 긴축 효과는 아직 많이 나타나지 않았고, 실질 금리는 강한 마이너스 영역에 있다. 경기 및 노동시장: 실질 GDP는 증가했으나 구성은 좋지 않다. 노동시장만 여전히 견고하며, 이는 지난 2.5년간 잃은 구매력을 따라잡으려는 근로자 움직임이다. 출연자 전망 요약: 연준 긴축 속도가 경기침체 위험을 키우고 있으며, 시장의 피벗 기대는 과도하지 않다는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well I never saw so many people so bearish and I think as I mentioned when everyone's on one side of the market the Market's going to do the opposite thing uh so much bearishness is built in that Annie crumb of good news such as the inflation news that we've been getting interpreted positively by the market and of course the hope of a of a of a pivot by the FED next week is critically important we we have to get no more than 25 basis points 50 would be I think a disaster uh we need to get 25 but we also need to get the messaging that not only does the FED see that the that their policy is working but that they are very near the end of their tightening not oh we have more work to do I don't think the market will take those words very well I think 25 basis points is all they should do uh after by the way we got the December money supply Scott which is as you know something that I look at closely 2022 the lowest lowest growth of the money supply since the Great Depression of the 1930s now that's something to think about we have the greatest inversion of the treasury yield curve in over 40 years the most reliable single indicator of a recession that's something to think about why would the FED want to continue and even increase the inversion of the yield curve uh that's beyond me all right so there's a lot there professor and you used a very interesting word you use the word hope about what the market hopes next week about what you hope next week and I remember the Shawshank Redemption Professor when they said Hope's a dangerous thing and that's what some people say now that it's a false hope okay that it's a false hope because the FED is more intent on making sure that inflation is not only down but that it doesn't come back and that this whole move predicated on this idea that the FED is going to make a pivot or is near done is a false hope how do you respond well if you shrink the money supply inflation is not going to come back you know you know they talked about the Stop and Go policy of of the 1970s so really in terms of money they kept on pouring it on and on and on and there was continued inflation we we have a completely different situation today and as I pointed out if you use current housing data not the misleading housing data of the bureau which is average you know to months and months into the past you have negative inflation right now so we have nothing like the 1970s they should recognize how that how tight they have become so quickly that risks the economy in a recession it's not a stop and go situation like the 1970s at all so they don't you know and they and they also have to recognize and and chairman Powell says this himself but then sometimes the way he talks he doesn't doesn't seem like he understands it monetary policy works with legs all that tightening a lot of it is yet to be felt you're in real negative territory for in in inflation you do see a slowing of the real economy I mean GDP was up but the composition was not was not particularly good the the only thing is the labor market that that still packed that's the only thing and as we pointed out that's the worker trying to catch up to all the purchasing power that he and she lost over the last two and a half years