저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 증시가 사상 최고치권이지만 나머지 세계는 부채와 무역 갈등으로 부진하다는 진단이며, 로저스는 미국 주식 강세를 전제로 한 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않고 중국·러시아 등 소외 자산의 저평가 매수와 장기 원칙을 강조한다. 핵심 주장: 아시아는 중국 부채 문제와 일본 부채 문제로 상대적으로 불안하며, 미국이 상대적으로 가장 매력적인 시장이라고 봄. 저평가 투자: 항셍지수가 25% 하락한 중국 시장, 러시아 등 미움받는 시장에서 기회를 찾는다고 언급. 중국 기술주는 과열 후 반응이 과도하다고 보나 본인은 기술주를 잘 모른다는 이유로 매수하지 않음. 분산과 원칙: 분산투자보다 잘 아는 한 바구니에 집중하는 것이 부를 만든다는 입장. 헨리 포드, 워런 버핏 사례를 들어 스토리를 이해한 투자를 강조. 리스크: 가장 큰 위험은 워싱턴 정책과 중앙은행의 판단이며, 무역전쟁은 누구에게도 도움이 되지 않는다고 주장. 미국 증시는 10년 고점 부근이며 역사상 가장 긴 강세장일 수 있으나 언제 끝날지는 모른다고 함. 약세장 전망: 약세장은 언젠가 다시 올 것이며 과거처럼 중앙은행 개입이 영원히 막지는 못한다고 봄. 일본식 국채·시장 매입은 효과가 없다고 비판. 언급 종목/자산: 중국 기술주(과열 후 과도한 반응), 미국 기술주(과평가로 매수 안 함), 항셍지수(하락, 저평가 관심), 러시아(미움받는 시장), 미국 증시(사상 고점권, 정확한 방향 예측 없음). 구체적 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
I'm street smarts actually for me was a fantastic book because it showed your style of investing which is very hands-on you go to places you investigate you've got a feel on the ground which is very different from teaching your view on people looking at the returns that particular country is providing you also live in Asia and I've been talking a lot on this show about the divergence that we're seeing just in market terms in Asia Pacific versus the United States what's going on on the ground and how concerned is Asia right now about tariffs the relationship with the United States etc etc that's a stage in most of the world yes is doing extremely well most of the world is not doing very well for various and sundry reasons Asia is doing better economically but Asia has some in China they got debt and it's coming home to roost right now beerus and sunder japan's got its own problems of debt coming home to roost right now so there's some big problems in various places at the moment the u.s.
is the best place the best market maybe not the best place to be but the best market potential though because you look at things you like beaten up things you look at markets that are down you go actually that's miss price and i'll get involved so when you look at the Chinese market the Hang Seng down 25% do you look at that and go yeah they've got trouble as you just mentioned do you say actually they've got trouble but that looks cheap I was just in Russia speaking of beating down places and going and singing on the ground I was in the McQuarrie's I couldn't believe I found the most wonderful investment everybody hates I'm not gonna tell you the name yet because I'm buying it but there it's there there are things out there that are beaten down and my parents told me to buy low and sell high I'm sure you're a stick to stick to that Monday evening countries like Russia that you know have challenges the more hated the better please yes yes don't bother me the new york stock your shakes for making all-time highs Julia that does not excite me thanks making all-time lows exciting so talk to me about Asia then in particular I know you like China what specifically because among those that have got beaten up for the Chinese tech firms and this is something that we speak about all the time what do you think of technology is a sector if you're looking at the Asian markets in particular rough Julia those the stocks are not the kind of thing I buy cuz I don't know enough about technology but the Chinese technology skyrocket now they're having a reaction they shouldn't have a reaction even American technology have reactions like that very very overpriced I wouldn't buy I would never buy them but I certainly wouldn't buy them now even in the reactions you always say this you say look I don't know enough about that to invest and I think that's the underlying core of the investment advice that you give to people is stick with what you know how do you get diversification as an investor as an individual investor if you have to stick to what you know particular geographic junior-junior diversification is something stockbrokers advantage so they don't get stupid if you want to get rich you don't diversify you put all your eggs in one basket you watch the basket Barry keV you got to make sure it's the right basket or you go bankrupt but that's how you get rich INRI Ford never diversified no gates never diversity he does now but these guys didn't diversify I knew what they wanted they put their money there and they were very successful that's how you get rich Henry Ford though is in a different era and obviously that impetus has been disrupted but every markets being disrupted so bring it bring it to the 21st century but what's the place where you could invest actually not worry about that did you find this disruptors and you pinboard was the disrupter yeah you already people hated him because of what he was doing he warned a lot of people but he made a lot of other people rich that's what you do you find the things that are right that you know about don't listen to me you listen to what you know and then he and that's how you were gonna get rich investing Chinese tech investing u.s.
tech as long as you understand the story I mean that's what you're bringing it back to and you mentioned warren buffett there same thing you've got to understand the story in order to invest only way you make money you don't listen to me or you don't even listen to CNN talk to me about the bear market case that you mentioned and I know you've been quoted widely you've also said look we've seen pull backs in risk every four to eight years we've extended that time horizon for various reasons stimulus from central banks being one of them where do you think the risk spot is when you look around the world again I pin put the Pathak Washington's asset really washing the Washington DC's the greatest risk or the central bank has no clue what it's doing the others are calling it the government has no clue what it's doing trade worse you think trade wars are good for anybody history shows they're not so Washington is the big risk right now it's interesting that and I saw a quote from Mike Milken over at an Asian summit and he said the proportion of people in extreme poverty in China over the last 20 years has gone from 70% to just you said that a lot of the policy conflicts and the risks occur coming from DC but you agree that the president's right to tackle some of the trade imbalances even if the way he's doing it is wrong well trade wars have never worked for anybody nobody's they've always led to problems for everybody so it doesn't matter if he's right or right if he's gonna ruin us all you know yes maybe we have problems but the problems are not because the Asians are evil we have a horrible education system we have a horrible litigation system we have you know we spend more on medicine than anybody in the world by several factors life expectancies not even the top 25 we have more basic problems than a bunch of evil Asians policy elements the attack plenty of people would agree with you on that point if this trade war continues the rhetoric the tariffs continue where does it end does it end up pulling us equity prices down as we've said this is kind of the the safe haven right now US stocks are a ten-year high yeah have no bear market that the longest bull market in the history of the world maybe it's gonna go 20 years who know I don't know I'm not smart enough but I know when it ends it's been very very bad that used to get what I said was when we have a bear mark is gonna be worst in my lifetime and we will have bear markets again the we services no no no we're not ever going to have a bear market again go buy little assets when things started going down they got a lower interest rates again they're gonna buy everything they can are they gonna ruin us all oh you think they'd end up like Japan and actually buying more than just sovereign bonds they buy the markets been around when they do it but then the mark then the market is gonna say we don't care anymore we don't want your garbage we know better look at Japan it didn't work and it's not gonna work you
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