저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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결론: 미국 대형 경기침체는 기대하지 않으며, 2023년 침체 가능성도 낮고 있어도 2024년 초 수준으로 본다. 경기 전망: 인프라법·반도체법·IRA 등 3대 재정부양책이 향후 수년간 약 1조 달러 규모로 경제에 유입되며 일부 부문 둔화를 상쇄한다고 주장. 은행 위기: 최근 일부 은행 파산은 금리 475bp 급등에 따른 과도한 위험 감수 기관의 문제이지 시스템 리스크가 아니라고 봄. 대형은행 실적은 양호했다고 언급. 만기보유(HTM) 회계: 미국은 고정금리 대출을 HTM에 많이 넣는데, 시장이 평가손실을 투영해 예금 이탈이 빨라졌다고 지적. 하루 420억 달러 이탈 사례가 향후 은행의 자산·부채 만기 매칭 강화와 변동금리 대출 확대로 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 시장 구조: 미국은 자본시장이 발달해 예금 이탈 자금이 자본시장으로 이동했고, 은행 분야 스트레스 시 자금이 자본시장으로 쏠리는 안전밸브 역할이 작동했다고 평가. 미국 금융 시스템을 긍정적으로 평가. 리스크: 침체 시점은 단기 인플레이션 경로, 연준 정책, 신용 스프레드 및 지역은행 영향에 달려 있다고 조건부 언급. 출연자 전망: 래리 핑크는 경기 연착륙 및 금융시스템 건전성에 낙관적이며 단기 침체 공포에는 선을 그음.
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so if you the the counterargument to to people like you who say that we're going to have sticky inflation for a really long time is that if we get a big recession that that does cure inflation so are so are you saying that you're not expecting a big recession in the US I am not expecting a big recession in the US we have to offset that we have three giant fiscal stimuluses that were created in the last two years that are starting to enter our economy that's the infrastructure bill that's the chips Act and the IRA the culminated of those three bills are a trillion dollars of stimulus over the next few years think about how many jobs infrastructure creates think about the demand for Commodities as we build infrastructure and so um so yes you're right we have some sectors of the economy are starting to weakening but we are going to have other segments of the economy because these tremendous fiscal stimuluses are going to offset some of that and that's just beginning those stimuluses are just beginning to enter the economy right now as other components are slowing down so no I don't see a big recession I'm I'm not even sure we're going to have a recession in 2023 we may have it early 24 it really depends on what is the pathway of inflation in the short run what is the pathway of the fed and also more importantly how does this all play out in in terms of credit and credit spreads and what is that impact on Regional Banks and other asset owners well let's go back one month ago uh we sit here and there were actually people would come on and talk about the Republic being in danger not Republic Bank the country now how did we get to a point where a couple of banks uh failed and everyone suddenly felt that the system was as weak as it was in 2008 well I think you were wrong I mean we have yes when when you have a 475 basic Point movement in in 18 months uh of interest rates you're going to expose uh Risk Takers who took too much risk that is not systemic we've had a few banks that took that had hyper asset growth in 2020 and 21 those organiz all you have to do is look at who had the hyper a asset growth during 2020 2020 and 2021 and so that means they took on a lot of mortgages at 3 and a half% they took on a lot of assets at at the lower interest ratees now the bigger question not everybody who had hyper growth then failed because they probably matched their assets and liabilities but those who did not look at the you know they made a lot of money because they interest you know they were paying very low short rates and earning the three and 38 well now they're paying five five plus% and earning three and 38 and so they have you know they have a that's the problem but this is not a systemic problem this is not a problem that is going to impact as we saw today we had our big Banks having great quarters and and and and Performing really well and so I think this is just uh an example of you know when the sea When the tide tide goes out some people are going to be left there and but Larry there was one part of this that was distinctive which was the rapid uh disappearance of deposits in a matter of hours yeah 42 billion I've said this number many times in four hoursb I assume that got your attention I'm just curious as to whether you think it's sort of an existential question for some of these Banks I think it's going to be a bigger existential question as what do banks do with their held to maturity account I think that's beg what the real issue is we have this we use held of maturity more in this country than most other countries actually in most other countries Banks do more floating rate lending than fixed term Lending we're able to do more fixed term lending and put that into a held of maturity account what we have seen and we've never seen this before is the Market's looking through to the mark the market impairment and they're saying oh my gosh this company may be impaired let's and then you have the deposit flight and they they fly a lot quicker than they used to so that's the bigger question is what is the value of held of maturity how should Banks be using that uh I don't and and so does that mean the banking system going to be more uh more engaged in Lending floating rate less fixed that is a that to me is one of the big existential questions to ask does the does the transparency of held of maturity now mean we're going to see different outcomes with banks to minimize that outflow in liabilities the outflow on liabilities is a is a great reminder that this money is overnight money okay so it is a reminder and seeing $42 billion out in 4 hours is a great reminder how quickly things can turn the the the result will mean is more and more institution will probably shorten their asset and liability uh match making sure it's more matched but does it beg the question is how are they going to look at held of maturity going forward and I think we have not spent enough time and ask ourselves that what is the value of held to maturity if the if the capital markets are going to look through that and mark the market it because for regulatory purposes you don't have to mark the market it and I think was one of the big issues related to the supervisors of that institution we talked about that because it was it was an account that was an commonly accepted accounting rule that if you deem this asset to go into a held of maturity that that you don't have to mark the market it but yet now the capital markets is now looking through that and saying no we we we want to know what's really going on in that one giant pool of money you're right C you use a great phrase here you say uh this banks are this will further accelerate Capital markets growth this is happening and it's not been recognized in this and and that's my point I mean we have a backdrop we have the most developed Capital markets we're sitting the Bastion of capitalism here at the New York Stock Exchange we are benefited by having this robust Capital markets and so in actuality very few people missed the beat during these failures because so much money had the ability to run from there and put their money safely that's a good outcome now the question is though uh you know you know from from a black rock perspective we need a healthy banking system and we need a healthy Capital market system and that's what we need we need a good mixture but you're going to see when one segment of that se segment is in distress like we saw you're going to see more money flowing into into the capital markets and that may reversed one time too and so we we do have the most healthy Financial system of any country in the world and we should be proud of it we should not look at this with extreme negativity we should look at this my gosh we had those safety valves and it worked
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