저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Jeremy Grantham은 주식시장이 1929년·2000년급 대폭락 직전이라며 붕괴 확률을 기존 85%에서 70%로 낮췄지만 여전히 높다고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 장기간 경기 확장, 지속된 강세장, 높은 이익이라는 대형 버블의 조건이 모두 갖춰져 있으며, 과거 이 조건들은 항상 급락으로 이어졌다. 근거 수치: 1929년 검은 목요일에 약 140억 달러가 하루에 증발했고, 2000년 나스닥은 2년간 76.81% 하락했다. 2021년에는 10% 하락이 있었으며, 예측된 붕괴 전 S&P 500은 10월 저점 대비 6월에 20% 상승했다. 과거 예측 이력: 2년 전 주택, 메me주, 채권 등 극단적 과열을 경고했고, 그 후 AMC 등 과열주가 큰 폭으로 하락했다. 리스크 및 질문: 경기침체가 얼마나 빠르고 길게 이어질지, 이익률이 얼마나 떨어질지가 핵심 의문이다. 무역분쟁, 중국과의 갈등, 전쟁 등 지정학 리스크도 언급했다. AI 관련: 마이크로소프트, 메타 등 AI 수혜주가 크게 올랐고, 저커버그 재산이 약 400억 달러 늘었다. 그럼에도 AI가 버블 붕괴를 막을 만큼 강력할지는 불확실하다고 봤다. ChatGPT 등장이 전망 하향의 계기였다. 전망: 전통적 버블 붕괴 → 통상적 경기침체 → 금리 하락 → 주가 변동성 확대의 순서를 예상하며, 그 이후에야 AI의 실질적 영향이 드러난다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 붕괴 확률 70%, 단기 하락 가능성 높음, 장기적으로는 AI 효과가 나중에 나타날 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Prepare for a stock market storm as legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns we are on the brink of a catastrophic collapse. Drawing parallels with the infamous crises of 1929 and 2000, Grantham predicts an epic bursting of the market bubble. Although his estimate of a collapse probability of 85% has been reduced to 70 %, he argues that the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has temporarily postponed the inevitable.
However, Grantham's track record of accurate predictions raises concerns about the future. Will the economy collapse rapidly and how low will it sink? How will other economic variables and global issues affect the situation? These questions remain relevant as investors brace for the approaching storm.
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And if you find our news valuable, don't forget to click " like", leave a comment below about what you think about the state of affairs in the world, and share this video with your friends so you can stay up to date together. Thanks for watching, now let's dive into it. The stock market is teetering on the edge of a precipice, warned Jeremy Grantham, a respected investor known for his expertise in major market crashes.
Grantham, co- founder of GMO Investment Management, which oversees nearly $65 billion in assets, believes the market is headed for a catastrophic explosion similar to the devastating crashes of 1929 and 2000. Although his previous estimate of the probability of collapse was 85%, Grantham recently lowered it to 70%.
Nevertheless, he remains steadfast in his belief that the market has created the conditions for the bubbles to burst. Although the development of artificial intelligence has momentarily postponed the inevitable. In an interview with WealthTrack, Grantham, an expert on long-term investment strategies, highlighted the favorable conditions that have fueled the stock market for nearly a decade.
Recalling the significant market bubbles of 1929, 2000, and 2021, he expressed his interest in observing truly large bubbles. Grantham argues that the current market scenario meets all the criteria, including prolonged economic upturns, a sustained bull market, and high profits. History shows that each of these scenarios was followed by a sharp decline.
Analyzing past crashes, Grantham pointed to the infamous " Black Thursday" of 1929 , when a staggering $14 billion was wiped from the market in a single day. In 2000, the NASDAQ index lost 76.81% of its value in just 2 years. Although 2021 saw a 10% decline, Grantham emphasized that the recent rally before the predicted crash did indeed occur, citing the S&P 500's 20% rise in June from its October low.
Jeremy Grantham's gloomy predictions have a history of accuracy. Two years ago, he warned of an imminent “ bubble” of epic proportions, highlighting extreme market conditions across sectors such as housing, mem- stocks and bonds trading at historic lows . Many of these assets subsequently faced a significant correction, and hype-driven stocks like AMC suffered significant declines the following summer.
In considering the potential consequences of a collapse, Grantham asks critical questions. How fast and how long will the economic downturn last? How low will profit margins fall ? Although some decline has already occurred, there is room for more significant declines. In addition, he reflects on the consequences of global trade disputes, conflicts with China, and the future of wars.
Predicting the outcome in these turbulent times remains incredibly difficult. Grantham expresses concern about the emergence of a “mini- bubble” caused by disruptive technologies in the tech industry, in particular artificial intelligence. Companies like Microsoft, thanks to their clear focus on AI, have seen significant stock price increases.
Similarly, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's fortune has increased by about $40 billion due to the company's pivot to AI-powered products and services. However, Grantham remains uncertain whether AI will be powerful enough to prevent a market bubble from bursting. He admits that the emergence of technologies like ChatGPT influenced his decision to lower the forecast from an alarming 85 % to a still disconcerting 70 %.
Grantham notes that AI is not just operating in a niche market, but adds complexity to an already confusing landscape of factors such as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical conflicts. The future impact of AI remains a matter of debate, and Grantham highlights opposing views on its transformative potential.
While skeptics dismiss it as simple trial-and-error learning, proponents believe it will revolutionize the productivity of society as a whole. Grantham's assumption is that AI will not have the impact he predicts in the near future . He predicts a traditional bubble burst, followed by the usual recession, falling yields, and stock market volatility.
Only then, according to Grantham, will the true implications of AI become apparent. As investors maneuver in this uncertain territory, pondering the likelihood of a crash and the role of AI, the question arises: What do you think about the future of the economy and the potential implications of AI for the market?
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