Interested in framing your Investment Philosophy? Want insights from Legend Howard Marks?

요약 보기

결론: 하워드 막스의 투자 철학 6가지 통찰을 소개하며, 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없음. [투자 철학 개요] - 지식은 과거에 관한 것이고 결정은 미래에 관한 것이라는 점을 강조 - 투자 철학을 정립하는 핵심은 '다르게 생각하되 맞히는 것' [통찰 1: 시장 사이클 인식의 한계] - 호황과 불황 같은 전통적 사이클 용어는 왜곡 효과를 만들어 피하는 것이 좋음 - 시장은 중심선 주위를 오르내리는 진동으로 보고, 과잉과 조정 같은 표현을 사용하는 것이 더 생산적 [통찰 2: 지적 겸손] - 지식에는 한계가 있으며, 선례 없는 전염병 위기처럼 아는 것이 없는 상황에서 결론을 세우는 것은 어리석음 [통찰 3: 안전마진] - 현재 가격을 기업 펀더멘털과 산업 안정성에 비추어 판단해야 하며, 안전마진을 확보하는 것이 중요 [통찰 4: 공격과 방어의 전환] - 위대한 투자자는 모르는 것에 대해 신중하지만, 좋은 기회를 발견하면 공격적으로 전환 - 공격성과 방어성 사이를 적절히 오가는 것이 가장 중요한 능력 [통찰 5: 다르게 생각하되 맞혀야 함] - 시장을 추종하면 초과수익을 내기 어려움 - 그러나 컨센서스에 무조건 반대하는 역발상도 성공 전략이 아니며, 시장은 대체로 맞는 경우가 많음 [통찰 6: 불편함에 익숙해지기] - 모두가 싫어하는 자산이 저평가 상태이며, 안전마진이 가장 큰 자산은 가장 인기 없는 자산 - 불편한 자산을 오랜 기간 보유하는 인내가 핵심 시험이며, 팬데믹과 금융위기로 인한 불편함은 당분간 지속될 것으로 봄 [출연자 전망] - 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음 - 금융시장의 불편함은 향후 상당 기간 지속될 것이라는 장기적 견해만 제시

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. no amount of sophistication is going to allow the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future these are the famous lines of legendary investor howard marks and in this video i try to explain six insights that have helped him frame his investment philosophy two things clearly stand out being different and being right let me quickly jump into the insights now market participants view the market activity through the lens of boom and bus cycles and anticipate future movements based on past performance in general market cycles are nothing but an up and down oscillation around the central median line and these traditional terms create a distortive effect so one should generally avoid them and look at markets more productively like excesses and corrections insight number two the importance of intellectual humility is being aware that there are limits to knowledge the current global health crisis is a clear casing point since there is no precedent or a recent parallel the conventional assumption that this is an asset bubble or a debt crisis is of absolute no use or of little use therefore it is silly of an investor to build his investment conclusion on how this disease will pan out when he absolutely has zero knowledge about it insight number three is all about insisting on margin of safety a smart value investor always looks for margin of safety in the underlying securities therefore when you make a judgment you need to understand the current price relative to the underlying fundamentals to do so the investors need to check the company and also the stability of the industry and understand both in detail in response to the price that it is currently quoting therefore insist on margin of safety insight number four this is my favorite know when to get aggressive great investors tend to be circumspect about their investments that's the concession they give while dealing with what they don't know and therefore for investors caution is the best strategy while dealing with the unknown but these very same great investors go on an aggressive mode the moment they find something very good toggling between aggressiveness and defensiveness is the greatest single thing the investor can do if done appropriately fifth important insight is be different but be right following the market has never led to outperformance and i'm sure you've heard it many times if you wish to generate superior performance try to stay away from the herd and be right the strategy may sound very simple but believe me it is very very difficult in practice reacting negatively to consensus is a easy job but in investing the consensus or the markets are generally more often right than not therefore knee-jerk contrarianism is certainly not a successful strategy when all the factors all the important decisions before going contra the sixth inside is a psychological one get comfortable with discomfort every great investment starts in discomfort if everyone around you doesn't hate the asset will it be cheap no right an asset is cheap because nobody wants to buy them an asset with the highest margin of safety or the largest gap between the current selling price and its intrinsic value is the most unwanted and holding an unwanted asset is not comfortable the bigger issue is holding on to an uncomfortable asset for a longer period of time it's a test of your time because you may end up holding this for months or maybe years yet the investment decisions that you make today will never get validated the very same day it can last for a long time currently the world is struggling with the global pandemic and its financial crisis so we believe that this uncomfortness will be a part of the financial markets for the foreseeable future the pandemic and its economic impact can last for a long time and hence get ready to be uncomfortable thank you for watching this video hope you liked it please do subscribe and do share feedbacks good day