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So, in other words, that massive bucket is really just a bunch of good news for consumer prices coming down over time and oil continuing to trend down. You see this boy? That's America. America. Don't bet against America. e worst that's left for America, the bad news. Uh, and then we're actually going to talk about buying and being bullish because frankly there are a lot of reasons to be really bullish this year, especially reasons that people think are actually bearish.
Now, if you paid close attention to the end of my Iran video, I suggested that you generally make money historically always by buying the dip on geopolitical fears. I bought the dip yesterday. I hope you bought the dip as well. But in this video, we're going to do an analysis not just of which stocks we like, which there are plenty of those.
I'll talk about a few of them and reasons for why, but we're going to go through the negative catalyst and then the positive catalyst. So, we'll clear both sides. Now, shout out to those of you who have been buying up Figure. I'm honestly a little bit pissed because we bought the crap out of this right around IPO and when it fell after IPO, I was a big fan of building a position in this.
And thank you to those of you who believed in me. But long-term, this is a gamecher fintech stock right here. And I think the market is finally realizing it because it's up 15%. So congratulations to all of those of you uh up in the meet Kevin membership. It's up 15% on the day. It's up double in the last three months or whatever that we've been buying it.
Uh . Use the birthday coupon code. You get all thl the fundamental analysis. So, with that said, let's get into the content. First, we need to get the bad news out of the way. We just got news from Donald Trump that he's still deciding on who to pick for Fed chair. Now, this is obviously a little bit annoying because it's kind of like, oh yeah, we'll pick by the end of the year.
Oh, we'll pick in the first week of January. Now, it's going to be the last two weeks of January. He doesn't really want to pick because right now the market's doing pretty dang good. And he realizes that no matter whom he picks or who he picks, he's going to piss somebody off, right? Just this morning, we also had Schmid come out suggesting that inflation is still too hot and that labor market stresses stresses are structural and that rate cutting won't necessarily solve that.
This is a negative catalyst that we have. We don't know if we're going to get a loon like war or a wet blanket like Hasset. We also have a lot of people left at the Fed and JPL might honestly stay in his seat for another two years. you know, maybe not as the Fed chair, but as another governor, he could do that, right?
Technically, his term as chair ends in the middle of May, but he could actually stay until 2028 as an alternating voting member imparting his opinion. And he might do that honestly just despite well frankly Trump. But Schmid and a chorus of folks at the Federal Reserve including Goulby are warning in addition actually to Bostic and Qashqari a lot of them that we could see a resurgence of inflationary pressures this year.
Now part of that is because of the year-over-year effects of inflation. that is, we just got tariffs really after the 90-day pause around the middle of 2025, which means that a lot of the sort of reckoning, if you will, of Donald Trump's policies might not actually show up until this summer. And so that could keep the Fed pretty aggressive, which I think is why JP Morgan is saying, "Hey, we might not, and I hate them, but whatever.
We might not get, they suck, we might not get any cuts this year. we should actually potentially prepare for rate hikes next year. Now, I think that's a little loony because I do think we're seeing a lot of disinflationary effects and we'll talk about the bullishness of that in just a moment, but it is true.
We'll probably have some of the peak of tariff uncertainty and effects coming up this year, but that should represent a peak. So what actually seems bad could actually end up being bullish because first of all when we hit peak tariffs and peak inflation we should be down from there. In addition to that, when I think it's a when the AIPA tariffs get ruled unconstitutional, that the president exceeded his authority, the president says he has another package to sort of, you know, come up with other solutions to regain those tariffs, but it's going to be really unpopular in a midterm year.
He'll actually be better off providing all that money as a refund. He'll call it Trump stimulus and sign his name on the check. He'll blame the courts, but he'll just run the credit card of America to run this economy hot. And he won't touch new tariffs, my bet, until after midterms because they'll be politically unpopular.
They always have been. And they'll create too much uncertainty, especially for Trump's voting base, farmers and business owners. He wants to make them feel like he's, you know, cooled cooled his chops a little bit and he's going to keep fighting for America, but we're going to cool that one off, which is stimulative and disinflationary.
So, yes, the Fed's going to be a little delayed, which is part of the bad news. And yeah, of course, we're still shockprone on the 102 spread, but it's coming down. Why is that 102 spread coming down? Well, part of the reason it's coming down is because core inflation levels came in a little lower than expected.
Retail sales are still popping off. Consumers are still spending like there's no recession. Oil is priced like we're in a recession, but that has actually bullish the consumer. You know, another stock that we heavily analyzed uh was Target back in the 80s, like not the 1980s. I'm not that old. Uh, not that there's anything wrong with being that old, but I wasn't doing stock analysis in 1980s.
Back in the 83 over here, you know, 83, 84, 85, they were offering like a 5.6% dividend on Target. You know, you compare the price action of Target to Walmart or Costco. It's insane. Wall or Target's gone straight down. And I know people go woke, go broke. I get it. But look, compare that to Walmart, which is skyhigh, or Costco, which has chillaxed a little bit, but is still relatively sky-high.
They all serve the consumer. Target is a dividend aristocrat. I know a lot of knuckleheads on Twitter don't understand what the hell a dividend aristocrat is, but we studied Target's dividend history in our course member live streams. You know, you get that in the alpha report. And we're like my conclusion and I wrote it down like I don't think they can cut their dividend because if they cut their dividend they'll lose their status as a dividend aristocrat they get cut out of funds that allocate to dividend aristocrats and they'll crash even more.
So actually was fantastic something to think about but it's an example of the consumer right and the money that the consumer still has and still is spending. And again get lifetime access over at meetke.com to get that. Uh we will have a big price increase uh coming up as this coupon expires. That's on my birthday, by the way.
So, you've got a little bit of time. That said, all of this fear that we have right now with fear over Iran, whether Trump is bluffing or not doesn't really matter. Yesterday, I mean, for Iran, it matters. I think, you know, obviously Donald Trump today suggests, oh, we stopped 800 executions. Uh, we're we're doing such great work with Iran.
You know, 800 executions are halted. We warned them of grave consequences, and they listened. Fine. This is the same crap that Donald Trump did last year with Operation Midnight Hammer. It's almost like they try to scare everybody into thinking the operation is happening so they can just spy on them and go, "Aha, that's where all your weapons are coming from.
That's where all your insiders are going to hide." It's kind of like you you like squirt a little water on the ants nest to find out where the queen is hiding because everybody's like getting into position for war and you clickbait them. then they relax and go back to normal and then you strike. It's it's honestly it's like 4D chess, right?
Or you just have that threat of the strike. But anyway, geopolitics generally by the dip opportunity really Iran topic for a different video. But understand that yes, the labor market has obviously been slowing. Our break even labor force uh rate is probably somewhere only around 20,000. If you take the 60,000 adjustment off of what uh Jerome Powell has been telling us, our three to six month moving average for labor indicates our labor force is actually shrinking, which is a problem.
Let's be clear about that. The labor market still says we should be cautious. Don't go all in on debt. Don't use margin. Be careful. You know, I had a knucklehead, and I call him a knucklehead. I love him. He donated $20 to me on a live stream this morning and he's like, "Kevin, Kevin, should I refinance my house and take $300,000 out to go buy the cues?" And I'm like, "Sir, are you retarded?" Okay.
And I just I'm sorry. I'm not trying to be like anti-politically correct here or whatever, but I I I don't want people to mistake that the bullishness that I'm about to tell you suggests that you should refinance your piggy bank of debt and go all in on stocks near all-time highs. Now, there are some stocks that are still cheap, a lot of them.
In fact, a lot of the mag seven stocks are ridiculously cheap right now. I'll talk about those in just a moment. But please, this is it. It is still a risky time to start yeeting all in on debt. That makes me a little bit nervous. I remember when I refinanced a bunch of properties to buy stocks. I did it when everybody said hell was coming in March of 2022 and we made videos on it every day.
I go, I'm I'm refinancing everything, boys. You know, like I look at House Hack, we don't have an ounce of bank debt. And I look at myself, I don't have an ounce of debt at all. uh like that's good because when there's panic whether it's because after the Supreme Court aa tariff uh you know decision comes and then people are like oh this is going to cause uncertainty good give me a dip opportunity I'll take it you know I'm already buying uh you know multiple different stocks that I think have great dip opportunities but the point is I'm also aware that now is the time to pay your taxes and your bills and be cautious okay so with this note of caution and recognizing that there are problems with the enthusiasm that yes ADP and challenger jobs both of them mind you are how should I say uh private surveys of the labor market not necessarily rigged BLS data both of them are indicating a turnaround now one month obviously doesn't make a trend but this is optimistic right when we consider this optimism yes even in the face of potentially rates staying higher with the Federal Reserve and uncertainties around geopolitics and the Fed.
We now have to think about the pros, the benefits that we're seeing in the economy right now and what makes me more bullish right now. So, let's break that down. First of all, right now, private credit that I thought would start seeing shrinkage in private credit where you know, basically you saw a lot of private credit disasters last year.
I'm thinking to myself, "Oh, private credit is going to shrink. That's going to tighten lending." Guess what's actually happening? Private credit is actually loosening right now. Oh, it signed me out, knucklehead Bloomberg. But anyway, Bloomberg has this article about how private credit is expected to expand substantially in 2026 because companies are removing the safeguards that make private credit less vulnerable to an economic downturn.
I'm telling you, we're taking adrenaline straight to the heart. We're not even putting it into our legs. We're taking adrenaline straight to the heart of America and we're going, "Screw the debt. Screw the side effects. Run it hot." Yes, it's going to cause a giant freaking bubble and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of freaking money in the long term.
But in the short term, that's crazy. It's kind of bullish. Oil prices have been structurally falling since 2022. This is bullish consumer spending. We have the lowest gas prices that we've seen since the summer of 2020 one. And just this morning, that's disinflationary, mind you. And just this morning, the Suez Canal, MK reported that they're reopening trading routes through the Suez Canal.
Remember when that was closed and Tesla was complaining about supply chain problems because they couldn't get parts from China to their Berlin facility? Everything was taking longer. It was more expensive because the Houthies were fing firing rockets at our ships during the Biden era. And you know, we did a little bit, but we didn't do a lot to stop the problem.
Reopening that is deflationary. The Supreme Court AIPA tariffs deflationary. Everybody's going to be worried about inflation. And that's why people are running into gold and silver. I think there's a higher likelihood based on these levels. Now, okay, I've actually been bullish gold, silver through and precious commodities into these eras.
But I think right now the riskreward is starting to be such that from maybe a hundred on silver, maybe 5,000 on gold, we could potentially see the largest collapse in gold prices and silver ever because it's gotten so memed up and we're seeing deflation across the world. Not yet. I'm talking about the future, right?
So the stuff I'm talking about this video isn't to be bullish like tomorrow, you know, Kevin market turns red tomorrow, you must be wrong, you know, and like the two IQ thinking. No, we want to be thinking about like getting through this year, you know, you get through this year, any uncertainty, as long as we don't fall into a recession, kind of bullish.
China is exporting deflation around the whole world. Guess who could benefit from China's exporting of deflation other than restoration hardware when these tariffs get yeated away? Remember the planes that I trained in? Bro, I just spilled. I did not realize that was that full. What a Come on, Kevin.
Uh, remember the planes I used to fly in? Cirrus aircraft. Chinese. listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Ah, that's a company with big pee pee. That's, you know, they've been trying to soften a little bit uh because of tariffs, but they've got such big pee pee, it doesn't matter. It's It's incredible.
Something to think about. Anyway, so on top of this, we have a retail consumer that keeps spending. Worth noting that consumers in America are famous for spending money until they lose their jobs, right? So, like retail spending isn't a really great leading indicator. I I'll be real about that. But it's great.
Another thing that I think is fantastically bullish is you have to remember that right now I'm not the biggest fan of chip hardware because I actually think we're going to go through a massive deflation cycle in chips. That massive deflation cycle in chips. I was talking uh with course members about this this morning is actually selfdestruction for chips and chip holders.
But guess who it's actually a benefit for right here? The application layer, the next phase. I actually agree with Kathy Wood when her staff says that the application phase is like at the printing uh press stages of innovation and cheaper chips are just going to make artificial intelligence innovation even better.
I mean, I I personally think a lot of you agree with this. Uh, so I'm not trying to like rehash this, but I think this is why we just raised in like a span of a month like 12 or 13 million in like 30 days for my artificial intelligence company and real estate company, House Hack, househack.com, reinvest.co.
It's it's the same company. We're just slowly transitioning everything to the Reinvest branding because of what we have coming. We we haven't even fully revealed what we have coming. Uh, but uh but it's really really exciting. And when we see cheaper chips, we're just salivating. When Nvidia is like 4x lower cost for chips, we're like great, that'll cost us less money in electricity, which our electricity bills are crazy because of even, you know, the servers we're running.
Uh we use some cloud and some onrem and just the on-rem stuff is like, oh man, this stuff uses juice. Uh uh you know, which makes sense. This is why uh Amazon is freaking out on commodities because people are memeing up gold and silver. So people are like, "Oh, if people are memeing up gold and silver, next they're going to meme up copper." So what's Amazon doing?
Amazon's jumping in to literally buy a stake in America's quote first new copper mine to get their hands on copper before it memes up. So yes, AI is still booming. TSMC is still forecasting 25% KAGER. That's a compounded annual growth rate, right? Uh they they expect 30% growth this year. It's crazy.
All of that is disinflationary though for America and earnings at American companies. You have to think about this when companies innovate. You know, another beneficiary to think about of like tariffs going away uh would be a company like uh Axon for example. You know, Axon uh has done exceptionally well.
It's had a little bit of a recent sale, but it's done exceptionally well. But something to think about an Axon style company is if tariffs go away, Axon benefits because they manufacture most of their like body cameras and tasers overseas. Do I still have my taser sometime? Like oh I I think I gave it to Lauren.
I have a two-prong Axon taser like an X2 or whatever. But anyway, uh and then um you've got the software artificial intelligence that they run for 911 calls or police reporting or whatever. All that stuff gets cheaper when you make it cheaper to run artificial intelligence. You know, you don't have to be an investor and house hack.
You know, I understand it's a smaller startup and there's obviously risk with every investment, but I think it's incredible. Two figure keep this is ridiculous. It keeps going. I mean, I'm I'm honestly kind of pissed. Uh because like not only do I love what they do and I want to own more of that stock, but like the last few days it's just become impossible to own more of it.
I feel like cuz it's like I made a price target at IPO. I'm like this is a $57 stock based on their last earnings. It's a $67 stock. It's about to blow through the $67 price target we have in the course members uh group for this. It's crazy. But anyway, now you have to add to this that Republicans are considering the reconciliation 2.0 bill.
Uh I also went through the beige book for whomever cares about that. I went through the beige book. Really boring. like like there was really nothing exciting in this. I mean look overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in eight of 12 districts. Three were flat, one was slightly down.
Like even in the beige book when you go through it it's like no this like yeah I mean the risk is we see a bunch more layoffs but we're just not seeing it right now. So instead what's so remarkably interesting is that now you've got politicians. Of course politicians spend like drunken sailors with a credit card.
We all know that. Come on, guys and gals. Like, the two of you who are girls watching this, I appreciate you, but let's be real. These politicians don't care about the debt. They care about party control and getting reelected. So, they don't care about the debt. They're just going to run it hot. And so, you kind of have to look at that and go, "Well, that's why we like not having our money in cash.
We like putting our money to work in things like real estate." You know, I just went through a literally a fire sale this morning. Broken glass everywhere. And um I mean the house had a kitchen fire is a hoarder mess. But anyway, there are so many opportunities to like make money in America. Next, I'm wearing my America belt.
You know, it actually got a little knife in it, too, which is kind of crazy. Uh you could turn it into like a poker, take it off, and you can stab people with it. It's terrible. Uh but anyway, uh so making this is not a solicitation for the belt, dear SEC. Uh so look at this. The pathway to home ownership.
I mean, like, we've gone through this. I'm not going to rehash all this, but you know, when we went through this reconciliation proposal 2.0, in case you haven't seen it, they're talking about tax breaks for people to sell homes to tenants or to first-time home buyers. I mean, this is huge right here for people who want to flip or buy real estate.
It's huge for the lending sector. It's also huge for the stock sector because they want to remove inflation from the capital gains gains that you pay uh when when you sell stocks, which is crazy. I mean, this rec reconciliation bill like if if this proposal passes, it's just pure bullishness. It's insane.
So, tax benefits for stockholders, real estate owners, business owners, farmers. Oh, wow. Those are a lot of those are MAGA voters. And I don't think all of us are like, you know, super MAGA. Like I think a lot of us uh who you know watch the the channel here are you know we're just looking like listen how can we make money for our business and our family and just get ahead right uh and and you know so you can always kind of make some jokes which I think is good but in case you're ever worried about getting stopped by ICE uh I have found the best way to defend yourself against getting raided by ICE uh I have put that on screen here.
Uh, you will be playing the Star Spangled Banner anytime you're on the road and you will promptly or pro prominently have your passport, your social card, your birth certificate, and your driver's license propped right next to the MAGA hat and of course the American flag. I just hung a fresh American flag on my house.
Anyway, so that doesn't make mega. It just seems to make you immune to ice. Who's that talking anyway? Okay, so obviously then you look at the Atlanta Fed. Like look at the real GDP numbers. Absolutely insane. Now, a lot of this we know is driven by AI and we know is driven by capital spending, capital infrastructure, right?
Which obviously that's the stuff that we're going to see in the one big beautiful bill when tax season comes around because people are writing off stuff with bonus depreciation. They're taking more research and development tax credits. And broadly what you're seeing here is spend, spend, spend. Yes, at some point we are going to have a big bubble that bursts, but I don't know we're there yet.
Look at this. Just now reports credit card charge offs uh are at 2.51% 1.4% in December. Still relatively low. Not horrible. Here's another thing that just came out just a moment ago across the wire. Taiwan pledges $250 billion in chip investments with credit guarantees. In return, Trump lowers tariffs to 15% on goods from Taiwan.
Lower tariffs, more Taiwan semi. I guess it's remarkable. So regardless of whether or not Trump is bluffing on Iran, that's a geopolitical issue. I'm inclined to believe that he is bluffing on Iran. Although a lot of the neighbors in the Middle East, uh, like Turkey, they do not want to see more instability in Iran.
So, you know, who knows? Maybe they convince Trump to let cooler heads prevail. I'm still expecting strikes, but, you know, no worries. Economy over the next year and a half, if we get through this soft landing, the valuations we're seeing right now could be really, really low. Not to mention, again, we talked about the yield curve compressing.
We talked about the inflation fade later in the year. We haven't yet talked about mortgage rates. This next 6 to 8 weeks of mortgage rates falling, it's going to create a refi boom bonanza. But it's not just that. Remember that right now you've got companies like Microsoft and Nvidia and Netflix and Meta, these massive mag seven plays selling for a fraction of what they should be selling for.
Meta and Netflix are probably half the valuation they should be. Uh then you've got Nvidia and Microsoft probably have about 62% upside just to a fair valuation point. Tesla is the only one of these Mag 7s that's like really overvalued. And Google is kind of fairly priced. You know, they they've done well recently.
So is Apple. There aren't really major discounts on those. But why is that happening? Well, it's happening because people are flowing into in part gold and silver, which is I think from here on will prove to be a pretty bad investment. But uh I do think what's happening is people are investing in small caps uh as evidenced here by the breakout on IWM uh Russell 2000 small caps.
You just have to be careful. A lot of these companies that are part of this index, well like 17% of them are like zombie companies, but a lot of the other companies inside of them is not really great companies. Kind of want to be cautious about that. But one last thing, as if there couldn't be more reasons to be bullish right now.
It's kind of weird. And I'm not like 10 out of 10 on the Bear Bull scale, right? I'm probably like in the low sixes right now, realistically. Like I'm I'm kind of excited, but I want to be cautious. Cautiously optimistic. If you look at Bitcoin, remember the breakout we said there would be a $14,000 move on Bitcoin.
We are in the midst of that $14,000 move right now. We're up about $10,000. I think it'll go to about 102,000 and then we'll have another test. Obviously, we could see some good volatility, but what's remarkable is if we can hold these levels the entire quarter, GameStop, Tesla, Square, Coinbase, Micro Strategy, all these guys are going to have massive right ups on their Bitcoin holdings because they've just written their Bitcoin holdings way down.
So, yeah. Uh, I hate to say it, but bullish catalyst. And I did say that as we watch the data, we will evolve. You know, people like, Kevin, you've been such a bear. Not really. If you look at my I mean, if you just read the titles, I mean, that's your problem. But if you look at my bare bull scale going back to uh September 19th, you know, we could honestly just chart the bare bull scale.
Let's go. I'll I'll slap it in right now at 6.0. I was 5.4 the other day. Why don't we just go in here and try to make a line chart out of this and see what it looks like. But one of the reasons we started tracking this is because we wanted to show uh data wise what Kevin's emotion basically has been like.
You know, I'm I'm human. I'm not here to tell you I don't contain emotion, but I think that my uh you know, my reaction function has been really plus or minus the middle over here, right? I mean, very much averaged around cautious optimism, middle of the road, 50/50. We could teeter every way. I've never been down here at the zeros or one and a halfs or whatever.
just cautious, you know, recognizing that there are risks, that I don't want debt right now, and I don't think I'll touch debt until we confirm a soft landing, rates come down lower. Probably 2027, 2028 is when maybe I'll wet my whistle with debt again, but not not anytime soon. So I do think that this is quite useful uh to to analyze and see all right you know the titles obviously I mean you all know like yes I I get it but you know that's also my job is to to have titles that entice people to see all of this content.
How do I put 30 minutes of what I actually think is you know dozens hundreds of hours worth of research in in a you know 30 minute video. How do you put that in a title? All right. So, anyway, that said, thank you so much for watching. Go check out the courses and all the buy trade alerts, uh, buyell alerts, mostly just buying right now over at meetke.com.
If you want the reinvest AI, you can get that at househack.com or reinvest.co. Uh, and if if if uh you have not funded your investment for House Hack yet, remember, check your portal. If your investment is approved, it's been taking weeks to get all the rest of them approved for all those of you who applied on December 31st.
Do that. Read the paperwork. This video is not a solicitation, but make sure you get like fill out whatever your forms are required, your tax information or whatever, and then you'll unlock the fund button. We're seeing lending expansion, oil uh prices coming down, obviously leading to those input costs reducing.
We just had the Suez Canal reopen for shipping. That's deflationary, which is great for prices at home. We're seeing the labor market obviously showing some signs of concerns, but stabilizing. Both the Challenger report and the ADP jobs report of last month, the private reports, not the government reported ones, which were distorted from the shutdown.
All of them telling us labor market is stabilizing. And China's exporting deflation. Of course, we're tariffing them, but the Supreme Court decision could actually help bring prices down as well. So, in other words, that massive bucket is really just a bunch of good news for consumer prices coming down over time and oil continuing to trend down.
So, yeah, can we have drama with Iran? Might we have another spike? Sure, it'll come down again. I'm very optimist.
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