저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 트럼프 행정부 하 인플레이션이 악화되고 있으며 경기 둔화와 함께 에너지발 물가 상승이 이어질 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 수치: 2024년 CPI 2.9%, 2023년 3.4%로 바이든 시기 하락세였으나 2026년 9월 CPI는 전월 대비 6%(연율 환산 7.4%), 전년 대비 3.7%이며, 2026년 1~9월 누적 CPI는 4%로 2023·2024년 연간 상승폭을 넘었다. 연말 CPI는 5% 안팎을 예상. 경기 평가: 트럼프 집권 첫 2년 GDP 성장률이 바이든 마지막 2년보다 낮다고 주장하며, 행정부의 '역대 최고 경기' 주장을 반박. 지지율·선거: 로이터 여론조사에서 트럼프 지지율 31%로 역대 최저 수준이라고 언급. 오하이오 주지사 선거는 VC 라마스와미 당선 확률이 연초 85% 이상에서 현재 26%로 하락했다고 주장하며, 중간선거 및 2028년 대선에서 공화당 패배를 전망. 에너지·물가: 유가는 현재 배럴당 110달러(5개월 고점)이며, 전략비축유 방출 중단 이후 150달러 이상으로 상승할 것이라고 전망. 에너지 관련 및 전반적 상품가격 상승 예상. 개인 전기요금 전년 동월 대비 26% 상승, 보험·스트리밍 요금 인상 사례 제시. 정책 비판: 트럼프의 물가 하락 주장과 식료품 가격 하락 발언을 허구라고 비판하고, 쉬프 본인이 2024년 12월 폭스뉴스 출연 후 방송 금지된 경위를 언급. 광고: 영상 중간 비밀번호 관리 서비스 Proton Pass 홍보 포함(투자 조언 아님). 리스크: 전쟁 종료 시점이 불확실하며, 이 조건에 따라 유가 전망이 달라질 수 있음. 출연자 전망: 물가 고착 및 공화당 정치적 타격 전망을 일관되게 제시.
다듬은 글
2022 the CPI was up 6 and a half%. But in 2023 it dropped all the way down to 3.4 and Biden's last full year 2024 it was 2.9. So all those years you know above 2% but but declining. We had four consecutive years of declining inflation as measured by the CPI under Biden. Yet the cumulative effect of all that inflation was very bad and that's why Trump and the Republicans won.
Well, it's the same reason that they're about to lose the midterms and probably lose in 2028 in the general election. As I mentioned on my last podcast, we got the CPI numbers. the CPI was up 6% in September and 3.7% was the year-over-year rate. But if you annualize that 6%, you're at 7.4% um inflation.
That's a big number. Nobody is talking about these big numbers. But what I think is is more concerning, we've got the first nine months of 2026. And during those nine months, the CPI is up by 4%. So that's more than the year-over-year increase of 3.7 because, you know, this is a big year, 2026. 4% already.
That means that the first nine months of 2026, prices are up more than the entire year of 2024 or 2023. And in fact, if you look at the PPI numbers that we've got and the import export numbers, I'm going to mention those in a minute. It's very likely that the next three months of the year, last three months are also going to be pretty hot numbers.
and that for the entire year the CPI will be up 5%. Maybe 5 point something percent. That is a big number. And what's worse is going to be the next two years. And in fact, you know, I hear all these Republicans want to talk about how Trump has, you know, brought down the Biden inflation, that Biden gave us 9.1% inflation, 27%, whatever it is, accumulative over four years, and how Trump has brought it back down, and it's, you know, in the twos.
This is all a bunch of lies. First of all, it's not in the twos. The most recent numbers are in the threes. But if you look at the most recent numbers, not just year-over-year where, you know, four or higher, and the fact that this is going to be the worst year for CPI since 2022, this is not Trump solving the inflation problem.
In fact, I keep hearing the Republicans talk about how much stronger the economy is under Trump, that we had this terrible economy under Biden. According to Trump, it was the worst economy in the history of the world, and now we have the greatest economic boom in the history of the world. Few people would realize that GDP growth under Trump, his first two years, now the second year isn't over yet, but you know, we only got one quarter left.
But even if it's a good quarter, it's not going to matter. Trump's first two years in office, the economy had slower growth than Biden's last two years. Think about that. The economy, the way the government measures it, GDP, is weaker under the first two years of the Trump administration, than it was during the last two years of Biden.
Now, how does that square with what the Republicans are saying or what Trump is saying, we got the greatest economy ever? I mean, Trump says that nobody can believe it that people talk to him and they say, "Sir, I can't believe this. This I've never seen anything like this. We've never seen growth anything like this." Well, yeah, we saw growth stronger than this when Biden was president.
I mean, growth was stronger during the worst economy in the history of the world than it is now during the greatest. And it's not just that the economy is weaker under Trump. And you know, when people blame rising interest rates on the strong economy, I say, "Wait a minute." But there is no strong economy.
Interest rates are going up despite the fact that we have a weak economy. We have a weaker economy than the economy we had under Biden. But not only is GDP growth slower under Trump than it was under Biden, but inflation is higher. inflation is higher the first two years of Trump. The CPI is going to go up probably by more than the last two years of Biden.
So h how is that an improvement? It's getting worse. The cost of living is rising faster. That is why the Republicans are sinking in the polls. In fact, just yesterday, there was a Reuters poll where Trump's approval rating in this one poll sank to 31%. That's a low for Trump, including his first term and this term.
That's the lowest I think he's ever received. Now, it's just one poll. It's not an average, so we'll see what happens. But that's the most recent poll, 31%. In fact, look at what's happening with the Ohio governor race. So, VC Ramaswami who's, you know, very much a Trump guy, very big Trump supporter, he's running for governor in Ohio.
Now, Ohio hasn't had a Democratic governor in 16 years. And earlier this year, the odds of Ramos Swami winning were over 85%. I just looked at the odds today, they're 26%. Ohio's going to have a Democratic governor. The first time in 16 years, Trump won Ohio all three times he ran for office. Yet Ohio doesn't want Ramwami.
And I think a good reason for that is because they are betrayed by Trump. They don't want the Trump economy. I mean, sure, there's still some loyal Republicans, you know, that are going to vote for Vbec, but they're going to lose that race, at least if these betting odds are correct. I had no idea that he had sank that much.
But this is a harbinger of the problem that the Republicans are going to be facing nationwide as a result of the inflation problem that has gotten worse under Trump. And what's particularly frustrating about it is that the Republicans deny that it's gotten worse. And you know, I just heard Trump again today talking about prices going down, grocery prices coming way down.
Where the hell is the president shopping that he sees grocery prices going way down? There are no prices that are going way down in Trump's imagination. And he keeps talking about how oil prices are going to crash, you know, after the war is over. Well, first of all, we have no idea when this war is ever going to be over, if it's ever going to be over.
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Oil prices hit a new 5mon high today. We hit $110 a barrel. But I think oil prices are going to soar after the midterms because that they're going to have to turn off the spigots on the strategic petroleum reserve. So oil prices are going to go up towards 150 and then higher. And it's not just oil. It's going to be everything energy related, all commodity prices.
This is a huge inflation problem. You know, I mentioned on on X yesterday, I got my electric bill for I think it was September, and it was 26% higher than it was for the same month in the prior year, the same house, same appliances. That's a big increase in my electric bill. And you know, this is happening, I'm sure, across the country.
And insurance is going way up. All all kinds. I'm looking at these streaming services. You know, I subscribe to quite quite a few of them. you know, the Netflix earnings were out today, but all these streaming services every year, there's never been a year that they don't jack up the price and the price increases are way way above 2%.
They're usually like 8% 10% every year like like clockwork. Everybody keeps raising their prices. So, when Trump is talking about how prices are coming down everywhere, again, that's the same nonsense he said in December when he got me kicked off of Fox News. It's almost going to be a year now. It's about, I guess, 10 months since I was banned from Fox News because I said that prices were going up.
And what did I say on that interview in December? I said that oil prices were going to keep rising. The administration was saying they expect oil prices to go down. I said, "No, they're going to keep rising." And I said that the cost of living was going to keep going up. That the president's policies were not working.
They were not lowering inflation. and he went ballistic cuz he said, "I'm a jerk cuz I don't realize that prices are coming way down. Everything is getting cheaper. Nothing is getting cheaper. Everything is getting more expensive." But the point I'm making here is this should be an alarm cuz look at these other numbers, right?
So, look at the PPI numbers that came out after we got the CPI. And nobody really talked about these because, you know, they talk about the CPI. They don't bother to look at the PPI even though the PPI is a glimpse into the CPI because before consumer prices go Stop.
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