Japan's economic issues won't become a major global problem, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

일본 재정 문제가 미국·글로벌 시장의 리먼급 위기로 번지진 않을 것이라 봄. 다만 일본은 선행지표 역할을 해왔고, 고부채 국가들에 대한 경고로 받아들여야 함. 미국은 2023년 금리 급등 때 국채 발행 조정으로 진정시켜 당장 부채위기는 보지 않음. 금 등 귀금속·비철금속·희토류 강세는 지정학 불확실성과 국방지출 증가 때문. 급등한 시장은 급락 위험이 있어 불안하다고 언급하며, 보유하려면 지정학 악화가 지속된다는 믿음이 필요하다고 함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I interrupted Ed Yardley, who's still standing by Ed, and I just wanted to give it a quick chance to finish the conversation because this is one big question for the markets today. To what extent do US investors have to care about the fiscal problems in Japan and the unwind? Can they ignore it? Is it a buying opportunity?

02. Is it a preview of what's to come here? Yeah, I I think we've seen for the past year that this has been going on and global investors has basically ignored it. There was some concern about an unwinding of the yen carry trade about a year ago. We had a day or two where that was an issue and it didn't seem to be a situation that went global.

03. So, I I don't think this is a Lehman moment. I don't think that what's going on in Japan is going to become a major global problem. However, Japan has been a leading indicator for developed economies and countries with regards to financing. And we saw that back in the '80s they had a big stock market melt up and then in the '90s they went into a recession and they had to lower rates to zero.

04. So, the rest of the world followed that. They had QE. And now I think what we're seeing is the consequences are that the government is trying to stimulate their economy when inflation is still 3% and the bond yield is absolutely soaring because there's way too much debt over there. So, I think this is a warning to the United States and to other countries that have high high debt to GDP ratios that there needs to be something done about the the wrong direction that these countries are on with regards to the finances.

05. So, what do you do? And for the a lot of investors have taken that concern all the way into a Bitcoin or all the way into gold or away from stocks. Or, you know, and they've almost made the the practical implications so immediate and so near-term, but it sounds like you're you're sort of saying, you know, yeah, it's a longer-term issue.

06. Hope they Hope they solve it. Well, I I think it has been a long-term issue. I've been doing this for over 45 years and I've got books on my shelf back there going back to the '80s about the debt problem and how it's going to create all sorts of debacles. One of these days it may do that. We came kind of close to a debt problem in the United States in 2023 when the bond yield soared from 4 to 5% in just 3 months, but the Treasury came up with a clever idea and that is they were decided to issue more bills and fewer bonds and that calmed the the bond market down.

07. I I don't think we're looking at a debt crisis in the US up ahead here. But with regards to gold, Kelly, I think what we're seeing here is just a much more unsettled and unsettling geopolitical environment and in that situation there's sort of an easier reaction to go into gold, but I think it's more than that cuz it's clearly the precious metals, it's the base metals, it's rare earth minerals.

08. And that all means that the geopolitical uncertainty definitely means more defense spending and to produce defense equipment we need more of these kind of metals. Right. And so, that's where would you then, to put a point on it, Ed, look at those trades and and say, yeah, you can stay in gold, you can stay in you can stay in any of this versus I would expect someone like you at some point to say, look, you know, when things start to go parabolic, we know what the other side of that looks like.

09. Yeah. I do feel uncomfortable when I see a market going straight up because very often the next thing they do is they go straight down. To continue to own them and to get in at this point, you really have to believe that peace peace is not at hand, that we're not going to see things get much better on a geopolitical front.

10. And we don't really know what the repercussions are of Trump's re-instituting the Monroe Doctrine in terms of the Putin Doctrine that Ukraine belongs to Russia and maybe other parts of Europe and belong to Russia. And then of course disease of view that the China Sea belongs to China and and so does Taiwan.

11. Yeah. And we'll leave it there. I appreciate your time this hour, especially on a day and a moment like this. Ed Yardley Danny of Yardley Danny Research.