저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 인플레이션과 생활비 상승이 심화되고 주식시장 시가총액이 과대평가되어 크게 디플레이션될 것이며, 이는 자산 보유자에게 치명적인 평생 위기가 될 것이라고 경고한다. 경고 및 거시 전망: 주식시장 시가총액은 과대평가되어 있어 크게 하락(디플레이션)할 가능성이 있다. 인플레이션과 생활비 상승은 더 악화될 것이며, 사람들은 '어떻게 하면 돈을 가장 적게 잃을지'를 생각해야 한다고 강조했다. 귀금속 및 광산주: 전 세계 자산배분에서 귀금속 비중은 약 1%에 불과하고 S&P500 내 광산주 비중도 1% 미만이라 투자자들이 지금보다 귀금속 비중을 훨씬 늘려야 한다고 주장했다. 금과 광산주는 주식시장 디플레이션 시 엘론 테슬라·엔비디아 등 인기 종목보다 덜 하락할 것으로 봤다. 일부 귀금속 종목은 크게 하락해 좋은 진입점을 제공한다고 언급했으며(이반호 마인스 등 보유 언급), 물리적 귀금속을 실물로 보유하는 것을 선호한다고 밝혔다. 금리 및 채권: 2020년 이후 원자재와 금리는 상승 추세에 있으며, 연준 기준금리는 테일러 준칙상 중립금리 6% 이상이어야 하는데 현재 4% 조금 넘어 아직 긴축되지 않았다고 주장했다. 미국 장기채 수익률이 5% 이상을 유지하는 상황에서 국가부채 문제가 금리 상승 압력이 될 것이라고 봤다. 중앙은행의 개입은 장기적으로 상황을 악화시킨다고 비판했다. 지정학 및 원자재: 중동 전쟁(호르무즈 해협)은 지속될 가능성이 있고, 밀·대두·옥수수·설탕은 상대적으로 저렴해 식량가격이 더 오를 수 있다고 봤다. 우크라이나 전쟁 역시 쉽게 끝나지 않을 것이라고 전망했다. 사회·정치: 미국 내 소득분배 악화와 자산 불평등, 자산 보유층과 임금 노동자 격차를 지적했다. 이민 규율 강화가 필요하다는 입장과 독일 AfD 등 우파 정당 지지 견해를 밝혔으며, 민주주의는 결국 포퓰리즘으로 귀결될 수 있다고 봤다. 포트폴리오 조언: 부동산·주식·귀금속·원자재 등 자산군과 섹터, 지리적으로 분산하고 일부 자산은 자국 밖에 보관할 것을 권했다. 자산 보유자에게 큰 위기가 올 것이며 이미 시작됐다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 귀금속 및 광산주에 긍정적, 주식시장 하락 및 인플레이션 장기 악화 전망, 금리는 상승 압력 유지.
다듬은 글
People should prepare themselves for I mean really a lifetime crisis that is going to be devastating for asset holders. Devastating. Inflation will get worse. Cost of living increases will get worse. The stock market capitalization is uh probably way overblown. You understand? It's going to deflate very badly in this environment.
I think people must think how do I lose the least money. Where would you be allocating capital if you were entering the market today? As an investor, I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals. Mark Fabber, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. It feels like a lifetime has passed since we last spoke.
There's so much I want to get your thoughts on, but first, let's start with precious metals markets. I'm wondering what your current thoughts are on gold and silver's price action since falling from all-time highs earlier this year, and do you think we're still in the earlier stages of a longerterm bull market here, or are you cautious of a potential further draw down in gold and silver?
A further decline in uh gold and silver is of course a possibility. But uh we have to realize that although gold and silver and also platinum have gone up significantly uh compared to financial assets and the size of the stock market and the global bond market. uh the precious metals are not very large in terms of asset allocation.
In fact, uh globally maybe around 1% is allocated to uh precious metals and within the S&P 500 mining companies make up for less than 1% of the stock market capitalization. Now I of course I admit that the stock market capitalization is uh probably way overblown. You understand that's going to deflate very badly.
But despite of that uh within a deflation in financials assets in the size in the stock market and bond market capitalization as a percent of the global economy uh in that scenario I suppose that gold and mining stocks would go down less than say the investor's favorite like SpaceX and Tesla and Nvidia and the micro technology.
So as an investor, I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals and probably they should have much more in precious metals than they currently have because when you go out and you talk to people and you say, you know, what do you invest in? And of course they will say yes we have gold but uh how much you know compared to the real estate they own compared to uh the allocation to semiconductor stocks they own and so it's probably very small and my view is in this world which increasingly looks like uh desperate and uh with wars and uh heading towards a major crisis at some point in future in this environment.
I think people must think how do I lose the least money and precious metals are are probably an instrument how to lose less money. And when it comes to the mining shares, are you seeing opportunity in those as well right now? because we have seen a big rally over the last few years. However, by many metrics, the big producers still look pretty undervalued here given their free cash flow and the current gold and silver prices.
How are you currently viewing the precious metals mining sector? Well, some precious uh metal stocks, they have come down significantly. I mean I I still involved and the large shareholder of Ivanho mines. Ivanho mines went down significantly and compared to the alltime high in copper that we witnessing at the present time.
The stock is depressed and offers an a a good entry point in my view. But uh I'm a little bit concerned about anything that has to do with paper. Stocks is a certificate is paper. I prefer philosophically and also in an emergency situation I prefer physical precious metals. And then the question arises, where do I keep these precious metals?
I wouldn't keep them in the United States. Certainly not in the US where the president could grab it because it's likely that the Trump family will continue to steal goods from individuals. Now, I want to get your view on the broad market as well because you mentioned you think the valuation there is set to deflate up ahead.
And very interesting to note that with two wars raging, the big indices keep hitting new all-time highs. I think if you went back before the wars started and said, "Hey, there's going to be two major wars breaking out." What do you think the stock market's going to do? I I don't think many people would say, "Well, it'll keep hitting multiple all-time highs in the aftermath." Is this peak complacency in your view?
And what will it take for this bubble to finally burst? I've analyzed the market behavior o over the history of capitalism and there are wars that have no impact on stock prices and there wars that do have an impact on stock prices and quite badly and especially I there are wars that have a devastating impact on bond prices and on the currency.
This we have to consider. So it's possible that people buy stocks and because they think that bonds are even worse and that cash is even worse because the fact is simply that over the last say 10 20 30 40 years bonds have not performed particularly well. I mean uh they performed well between 1981 and uh 2020.
But after 2020 the reversal came in the sense that whereas before after 1981 interest rates were continuously declining with of course fluctuations. uh but after 2020 we are in an uptrend for commodities and we're in an uptrend for interest rates and in this environment uh it depends to what extent the central bank or central banks provide liquidity.
And the fact is simply that liquidity up to now it may change overnight but up to now liquidity is very generous. In other words, uh there's no monetary tightness at all and interest rates despite all the rhetoric of central banks that they're increasing rates and this and that. The reality is that if we take a neutral interest rate and we could define a ne neutral interest rate uh that we calculate according to the Taylor rule whereby there are many different methods to calculate the Taylor rule but according to every method under the Taylor rule the fed fund rate should be above 6% I want to stress this above 6% to be neutral not to be restrictive to be neutral and at the present time we a tad above 4% but uh that tells me that the fate hasn't really tightened yet not at all now Mr.
Walsh as a given the or provided his view that he he wants to tighten. He understands that if they don't tighten inflation will get worse. I mean the cost of living increases will get worse. But uh the Trump administration has different view. According to Mr. Trump, he would like to cut interest rates to 1%.
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Make sure to tell him of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. I don't see that happening. But I do want to pull on the thread there about rates rising, yields rising on sovereign debt. I mean, in Japan, it's headed to historic, it's at historic levels. In the US, the 30 and 20 year continue to be above 5%.
Scott Bessent coming out and saying, "Well, we're going to double Treasury buybacks to try to bring the yields down." Um, this seems like a mess. How how could this all end? Could we see a legitimate sovereign debt crisis? And could that be the pin that pops the stock market bubble as well? Usually and not always but usually uh investment bubble is uh burst I mean burst or is tricked by a credit event because the credit event will then tighten liquidity through market forces and not through some uh central banker who thinks that he can plan economic activity better than the marketplace.
I mean, you have to be an arrogant son of a to think that you know better than the market when you think about it. I I have I I had a high opinion of Mr. best before he embarked on his bond buying binge. I think it's a a complete nonsense uh what he's doing and it's not going to help in the long run.
Actually, it will make things worse in the long run. Like every intervention into a free market worsens conditions in the long run, the worst bond market return has been over the last 10 years in history of the US bond market. Why? Because Mr. Bernani and Miss Yellen and so forth, they kept interest rates artificially low for too long.
And by doing so they laid the groundwork for future inflation. Now you mentioned intervention. We're seeing more of a you know polarization politically particularly in the United States but really all around the world but when it comes to the US in particular we're seeing a rise in the interest of socialism with figures such as Zor Mami coming into power.
Um I think this largely stems from the fact that people don't understand why prices are going up. They don't have the time nor the inclination to look into it. So they just say some politician needs to do something about this. And so they're willing to listen to people with socialist ideology. We'll take from the rich and we'll give it back to you.
In your latest market commentary, you quoted Daniel Lal who wrote on why elites love socialism. He said, quote, "It allows them to speak in the language of compassion and humanity while building structures of dependency." So end quote. Let's focus on America here and the rise of figures such as M Dami.
What dangers could a widespread rise in socialism represent for the US? And we also have to keep in mind with the midterm elections coming up. By and large, I think a lot of people are predicting the Democrats sweep that. I think we will see a Democrat president in in the next term. Perhaps a Gavin Newsome, god forbid AOC or somebody like that.
I mean, these things are all on the table. What what would the spread of socialism potentially do to the United States? Well, it's not going to be favorable for the society. But on the socialists, usually stocks go up is a bizarre thing. But socialists, you know, they believe in central banking and they believe in money printing and they have to print money because of all the social programs.
But to be fair to the left in the United States, if we look at wealth distribution and income distribution over the last say since the second world war, the share of GDP that goes to wage earners, in other words, to workers and to salaried people has shrunk as a percent of the economy to the lowest level ever and the share that goes to asset holders including myself I'm not complaining I'm but you understand I am an asset holder but at the same time I'm an economist and a social observer I've studied these things And I have to say for society that most of the income acrrues to 0.1% of the people is not desirable because the people that the 0.1% including myself we don't need to spend more.
We have already everything. Okay, I don't have a private plane and I don't have a Bentley and so forth. So I could spend on that but it's not my character to do so. But uh the rich people basically they cannot eat five steaks a day. They eat the same food as the poor. But the poor they would like to consume.
They would like to buy a home but they can't afford to buy the home. So they they suffer from affordability. And as you know approximately 70% of people in America they need their salary check to arrive in order for them to pay the bills. They have no money and this is the paycheckto paycheck society and this is very unhealthy and leads to eventually social problems including it's then easy to argue look the reason you're so poor.
The reason you have nothing is that these rich people over there have so much and we have to change taxes. We have to increase the taxes on them and so forth and so on. But uh the inequality arises mostly because of money printing. Mostly because of money printing because say you're born you you go to school and study and you start to work and I'm born exactly the same day under the same conditions.
We have the same amount of uh qualities or ignorance. But I'm born into a family where I inherit already with 20 a very large sum of money. And so I have a huge advantage because the money is invested in stocks and real estate and that goes up vertically. and you with your salary you can't buy it because you get the salary and you have to pay tax at the end of the month you have no savings so this leads to this inaffordability issue which is a very complex issue in Trump he doesn't want real estate to go down but in order to become affordable it should go down and should go down meaningfully and that the in the supermarkets the people struggle to buy food because the food prices are up substantially.
I mean we talk about commodities. What is at the present time still dirt, cheap, you know, compared to everything is else is wheat, soybean and corn and sugar. Very inexpensive compared to the rest of the commodity complex like say oil or gold or silver or platinum. So I think food prices may go up further and then the Fed uh well like in the 70s they will increase rates but under Trump and best they don't want to increase rates because the problem is government debt.
We didn't have the problem of government debt in the inflationary 70s. Yeah. National debt now surpassing 40 trillion. Pretty outrageous to see. Um let's talk about because you're mentioning commodities and you know the rise in commodity prices. We should talk about the straight of Hormuse and the war in the Middle East and also the Russia Ukraine conflict because that's escalating as well.
Oil refineries, other energy infrastructure getting hit. Um we're seeing oil tankers get hit. The straight of Hormus seeming to be by all intents and purposes still closed. an active war going on there and then of course the straight of Bab al- Mandab may also end up being cut off. What what are your thoughts here on how this could impact financial markets the global economy and commodities because we saw you know obviously a lot of energy goes through the straight um a lot of ura nitrogen for for fertilizer etc.
How do you see that whole situation playing out assuming that this war doesn't wind down anytime soon? Well, this is it's a good observation that the war provided the war goes on. Yes, I think the war may go on because uh the Iranians are not just going to give up. And uh Israel will not want to terminate or finish the war before they reach their objective.
and the objective is basically the destruction of the Iranian infrastructure or society. And I mean you understand the Middle East is very complex and it's absurd absurd to have started this war because there's no exit strategy. At what stage do you go back and say enough is enough? And so the other complication is of course that none of the surrounding countries is particularly enthusiastic for the US to control the straight.
You understand this should be clear and none of the surrounding countries or the countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa are interested that Israel controls the straight of Hormus. So I think the conflict may actually last and the Chinese and the Russians they are quite happy to sort of plead the US military in the Middle East.
I'm not a military expert in terms of how I'm not a general in the army, so I don't know about the supplies, but I hear that the supplies are tight in the United States that they're running out of rockets and missiles and so forth and uh it sort of immobilizes them. And then we have the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
I don't think that Putin can just withdraw and say, "Okay, it was a mistake to attack." I think he wants to settle for the territories in the east of the country of Ukraine. Uh the the the region that is bordering Russia. But at the same time, the Ukrainians, they don't want to give up and especially not as long as the western countries provide them financing and provide them the money because of that half of it is stolen by the elite in Ukraine and enriches the Ukrainian oligarchs.
Every war is a gold mine. Talking about gold mines, the war gold mine is the most profitable gold mine in the world. And so the wars keep on going as long as the money froze. I want to move over to what's going on in Germany politically right now and get your thoughts. Um because we've seen, you know, we're seeing all the headlines declare it's the rise of the far right in in Europe.
Of course, anybody that is not far-left is considered far right in the media's view. Um the AFD winning the recent Saxony anhal election now look looking like they could start to shape policy in the country at some point. Of course, there's calls to ban them. That's what always happens. Um they've called for tougher immigration laws, remigration, and leaving the EU.
Do you think any of this is a realistic proposition? Or do you think this is another situation where they're saying whatever they need to say to potentially get elected once they're in power? They'll do a little song and dance. They'll maybe deport a few hard criminals and then everything will resume as as normal.
What What are your thoughts here on what's happening politically in Germany right now? Well, uh I happen to know Alice Widle. She's what the leader essentially of the AFD. Yeah. And of course she politically is on the right side of the aisle. But the socialists in Europe and by the way also in the US they paint everyone who is a centrist.
They call him a rightwing politician and for them left is extremely left. I mean close to communism. I mean in Switzerland had discussion with the leaders of the socialist party. I was invited to a panel discussion and so and interviews and uh in in a perfect world they would like to essentially uh implement state ownership of assets.
In other words, take uh entire buildings away from rich people. They This is their philosophy. Now, the right wing in Germany is of course has nothing to do with the Nazi party of Hitler or or something like this. They are of the view that uh the immigration into Europe without limits leads to disaster which is true.
I mean our jails are full of foreigners and uh the criminality is 70 80% among foreigners and not among locals and the foreigners without education in particular. you know, people who believe they can go around and rape everyone anyway. Uh, and then the police is corrupted and also leftwing. Uh, they prosecute, uh, white people more likely than say colored people.
and so on. I mean, I think that for Germany and Europe, the solution or the it's not a solution, but a way to control an already uncontrollable situation. Particularly in France, there are some areas they're just Muslims. uh to to keep it under control. I think we need parties like the AFD is the same in Switzerland.
We need to limit immigration. [clears throat] But uh that is not the view of the socialists. They want to bring in these characters and uh because they benefit from it. the society does not benefit from it. I'm not saying that no immigration. I'm saying controlled immigration because uh European countries they're they're dying out.
The popular is like Japan. This is a demographic issue. Also in China, the population is shrinking. But the Chinese, they're smart. They did something about it. They produce more and more with robots, so they need less and less workers. But the the if we contemplate humankind or mankind, then one of the most difficult problems to understand and also then to solve is how do we organize societies?
I mean we had throughout history kingdoms and we had feudal systems and and then and now in the last 200 years and I'd like to remind people that our written history is about 5,000 years old. So 200 years is not representative statistically. It's a a very tiny period in history. We had democracy and of those 200 years of democracy.
Half of it was not a pure democracy because women couldn't vote and only rich people could vote in Britain in the 19th century. So, I mean, people say that democracy is the best of all the bad systems. I'm not sure. I think it's likely to be the worst system because it leads to a chaos and eventually it leads to either a fascist taking over or a socialist taking over both of which are undesirable.
Yes. And all the way back in the day when Plato wrote the Republic, he spoke about democracy leading to tyranny always. Um I personally don't think it's a great system. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Now, when it comes to the immigration issue around Europe, obviously it's a touchy subject. Cries of racism always come at you whenever you talk about it, but it's just a fact that you need stronger immigration laws to protect your citizens, to ensure the advancement of society in a positive way.
And if people commit crimes, particularly these sorts of violent crimes happening in Europe, there should be no question you should be kicked out of the country forever. It doesn't matter the color of your skin or where which country you're from, you're out and you're out for good. Um, however, the reason I'd like to get your take on the reason why this is happening because, you know, you mentioned pe certain people benefit from it.
Also, there's the idea that, you know, there's a group of people behind this who are trying to destabilize societies, throw them into chaos so that they can get greater control over those countries. Is this a controlled demolition in your view or just misguided policy? There may be different factors at play.
I'm sure there are some people they love to create chaos and weaken uh the western societies but at the same time I also believe that it's incompetence whereby it's interesting that say I look at the high society in Switzerland a lot of high society people and these are rich people they own the assets and everything they don't support [clears throat] rightwing parties uh they support the socialists it's interesting I mean for me it's astounding that they don't understand that but their support gives the socialists more and more power and eventually It causes them some inconvenience and eventually it causes them maybe to lose some assets or be taxed very heavily.
Then they complain about high taxation and so forth. But partly it's due to their inaction. And I mean I would have voted for Mr. Trump any time. I think he's an idiot. But the others are not much better. And I think the advantage he has is that he's done business not very successfully. But uh for say capitalists in general, he is a better man than say to have a Camala Harris or an AOC at the helm of the United States.
Yeah, it's a tough choice. You're presented with two very bad choices and have to pick the least worst one. But but I just like to say it's interesting that in the case of Rome, two of the worst uh emperors, Nero and Caligula, they lived relatively early on and the empire then survived this period of horrible leaders for another you know 600 years.
And in the case of the Eastern Roman Empire, it survived for another 1,400 years. So it is possible in societies to have bad leaders and then again better leaders come along. And do you think that's a possibility up ahead for the Western world? Because obviously a lot of people are blackpilled these days.
They believe everything is going down. There's no hope for humanity. It's just a cacistocracy world ruled by the absolute worst of the worst everywhere. Um, and it's all fake. It's all theater. Nobody's telling the truth, which it really does feel that way. Is this like a forth turning event that we're going through that will eventually lead to a new golden age to better times ahead in your view?
What are your thoughts there? Well, uh, you're a little bit younger than I am, so you are of course thinking about this and concerned about this. I'm not so concerned. I think in my lifetime, there will be a major financial crisis. And I think it's actually begun. But as crisis develop, they're not visible immediately.
You remember 2007 people right to into 2008 didn't realize the seriosity of the credit problems and then it occurred at the end of 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 but it it then occurred with violence. I mean, it it was a devastating crisis, a financial crisis. And to be fair, I mean, it could have been worse if they didn't throw money at the system.
The problem is that they threw money at the system and saved the system, but afterwards they didn't tighten liquidity sufficiently to sort of cool down the party. You you understand 2009 if you recall the mood was very depressed and I mean people thought the world is coming to an end. And then things started to improve and uh they launched at the end of 2008 uh Q quantitative easing and the question was then well when will they stop and my view was immediately once a central bank embarks on monetary easing it's possible to stop it but in a democracy where people are elected based on good feeling and so forth is not going to happen.
And now we have this quantitative easing and easing of monetary policies that is going on. And to be fair, it's driven the S&P higher, but as I said, it also created side effects that are undesirable. Now based on everything we've discussed so far today, final question here. How would you approach portfolio construction in this current market environment?
Just your own personal thoughts, not financial advice. You mentioned physical gold and silver being important. We talked about the miners. I know you you're involved in emerging markets from time to time perhaps. Would love to get your thoughts there. Um where where would you be allocating capital if you were entering the market today?
Good question. I think in absence of knowing how the world will look like in five years time and there are many possibilities because Mr. Trump changes his mind all the time and is a very impulsive and they're not exactly a deep thinker. But uh I would advise individuals to be diversified and I would advise to be diversified in different asset classes in real estate, stocks and precious metals and commodities and uh different sectors within the market.
But I would also advocate uh geographical diversification because say I'm in the US. If I have all my money in gold in the US and suddenly Mr. Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, it might be a good idea to take the gold away from the citizens and put it in our walls." uh then you might be stuffed.
I don't think they will do that. I but I think they will take the gold away and pay for it. But they pay for it in dollars that will then become worthless. So under these conditions, you want to hold some of your assets in other countries, not the US or wherever you are. If you are in Zimbabwe, you want to keep some money outside of Zimbabwe.
And you if you're Canada, you want to keep some money outside Canada. And don't think that you hold something outside a country. If you have a custody account and all the securities are in say State Street Boston or in New York in manufacturers handover or Morgan JP Morgan, you have to have the account actually physically or the precious metals physically in Russia or in China or in Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong London, wherever.
So this is individuals should prepare themselves. I tell you, people should prepare themselves for I mean really a lifetime crisis that is going to be devastating for asset holders. Devastating. The people have nothing. They are not going to lose very much but they will also suffer because once the people who have assets lose their consumption will decline and there'll be less economic activity.
Great thoughts and really appreciate you coming on the show. Uh the Gloom Boom and Doom report uh what what's that all about? Where people can where can people find it? They can find it on my website gloomboomdoom.com. And I mean some people have come to me and said that my [clears throat] writings changed their lives.
I don't know but for sure that that I'm confident you can see that I'm reasonably well read and I admit that I haven't read every book from page one to page the last page but I've read a lot and I think if someone reads my reports for three years and but he has to do some homework because I discuss certain events or some economies and the person who reads the report would have to look it up.
So there's some time involvement. But I think if someone spends an hour a day or an hour uh or two hours a week or so, I think after 3 years, he would know about economics as much as someone who went to university and studied economics uh under a professor, most of which are socialists and communists.
That's a great summary. I'm going to put a link in the description below to gloomboomdoom.com. Mark, as always, thank you so much for coming on the show. Well, it's my pleasure. Thank you very much. And uh I wish much success and of course success is also good health to your viewers and listeners. Thank you for joining us today.
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