저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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결론: 래리 핑크는 인플레이션이 점차 둔화되더라도 세계 경제는 저성장·고금리 국면(약 2~3% 성장, 3~4% 인플레)에 들어설 것이라고 보며, 장기 투자자에게는 현재 금리 수준이 오히려 투자 기회가 많다고 주장한다. 거시 경제: 인플레이션은 빠르게 완화될 것으로 보나 2% 목표 복귀는 어렵다고 본다. 가장 큰 우려는 인구 감소·중국의 이념 중심 경제 전환·유럽의 에너지 구조 변화로 인한 세계적 침체 분위기(malaise)다. 영국 사례처럼 시장 반발 때문에 재정 부양 여력이 제한된다고 본다. 금리 전망: 중앙은행이 양적완화 자산을 수년간 축소해야 하므로 금리는 지금 수준이나 그 이상으로 유지되고 낮아지지 않을 것이라고 전망한다. 투자 기회: 채권 금리 수준이 높아 연 5~6% 수익을 노릴 수 있고, 장기 수익률 목표(7~8%)를 오늘날 더 안전하게 달성할 수 있다고 주장한다. 미국 IRA 등 정부 보조금에 힘입은 탈탄소 투자는 12~14% 수익도 가능하다고 언급한다. 성장주 관심은 줄고 금리·쿠폰형 투자 관심이 커질 것으로 본다. 암호화폐·기술: FTX는 탈중앙 구조가 아닌 사기적 실패 사례로 규정하고, 블록체인 기술 자체는 중요하다고 평가한다. 향후 핵심은 증권의 토큰화(tokenization)와 즉시 결제이며, 이로써 중개인과 수수료가 줄어든다고 본다. 벤처투자는 식품배달 등 소비 플랫폼보다 탈탄소·농업 과학 등 하드사이언스로 이동할 것이라 전망한다. 리스크: 시장 전반의 인플레·금리 충격, 정부 재정 한계, 중국·유럽 경제 둔화가 주요 위험으로 제시된다. 개별 종목 추천은 없다. 출연자 전망: 래리 핑크 본인이 발언자이며, 특정 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
you know many great things going on in the world and the economy obviously it's been um being hidden in the narrative and obviously the reality of really elevated inflation markets that are down 18 in equities down pretty close to 18 in bonds the appreciation of the dollar so there's a whole reset in the marketplace and um and the reality the US is feeling much less pain than other parts of the world because of the dollar appreciation um and and other issues but but um I actually believe inflation will be abating very rapidly will evade rapidly yeah I mean is it going to go back down to two percent which is their objective that's going to be hard and that's going to be the fundamental issue where where is an acceptable level of inflation I mean in my 40-something years of being in markets you would have dreamed for three or four percent inflation so we set this target now of two percent which can be debated why too and I've had conversations on that um my biggest worry is not that we're not going to see a falling of inflation back to three or four percent my biggest worry is the world is losing hope we are we have seen a collapse in in birth rates and demographics we're actually going to enter a period of more what I would call malaise uh we are all seeing um the transformation of China going from what I would have called a very economic-minded economy to more ideological economy we're seeing the attended effects on that and we're seeing a Chinese economy flowing down to a three we have the European economy that is really fundamentally changed right now related to the Russian gas and the cost of energy and the fiscal support by governments and so I believe after we get out of this real spike in inflation we're going to be waking up to a world that's going to be a two-ish three percent world with maybe three or four percent inflation and I think that's going to be the fundamental issue that we're going to be facing and because of the situation that we saw just six eight weeks ago in the UK there is a limit on how much fiscal stimulus governments can can rationally do without having the marketplace Rebel that's what happened in the UK so after we get out of this burst of inflation it is my fear that we are not going to have the ability for any fiscal stimulus for any time soon you know deficits do matter uh and at the same time um the central banks are going to take years in which they're going to have to unwind all their quantitative easing all their bond purchases that they did over the last 10 years and and aggressively in the last few years they're not going to be as fully equipped to re-stimulate the economy so we believe we're going to have rates fundamentally higher you know maybe where they are today they're not going to go down at the same time we're just not going to have uh an economy that is based on real growth that we we are customers for long-term investors this is a great Paradigm because but if the other side of it is is some kind of malaise yeah but Andrew if you look at what it took to over 50 of our assets are retirement assets and all I do is focus on how do we get to a long-term outcome and all my letters are based on that long-term ideal um it is actually easier to meet your long-term reliability which everybody assumes about a seven or eight percent return over 20 30 years you're going to have a nice pool of money it is actually safer to invest to get that return today because you have two years trading at a four and a quarter you have you have 10-year credit you could buy you know at a five six percent return I actually believe we're going to go from the this paper interest in growth stocks we're going to have this hyper interested earning coupon hyper interest in investing uh secretary Yellen talked about the IRA which we are very bullish on and what that impact will do those types of subsidies that are coming from the government to invest in decarbonization it's going to produce 12 13 14 returns very easily we've done Investments like that already and so I think it is actually to be easy to meet your investment targets today than it was a year ago to reach meet your investment targets years ago a couple years ago you needed to invest heavily in private Equity you had a short liquidity to get to the return and now you're able to more safely invest in other things that providing you a coupon to get to your return so despite all the Doom and Gloom there is more opportunities to invest in the markets today than it was a year ago finding the stories the question is you know I'm not we're going to have to wait and see and how this all plays out I mean right now we can make all the Judgment calls that it looks like there were some misbehaviors of major consequences you know I am I assume look at by the long if you look at the Sequoias of the world they've had unbelievable returns over a long period of time I am sure they did the due diligence could they have been misled could they have done other things could we have been misled in this small little Investments we did sure but until we have more facts I'm not going to speculate and that worked it probably is not going to work in the future because I don't believe we need another food delivery company I don't believe we need where some of all this money was going to go I actually believe we're more and more Venture Capital money is going to be going and more and more early investment is going to be fundamentally in decarbonization it's going to be a different science it's going to require really underwriting the science behind these entrepreneurs I'm I'm visiting young entrepreneurs who are trying to do whether it's sequestration or a better way of of improving or improving farming by encoding seeds that already have the ability to create their own fertilizer to reduce fertilizer there are some amazing technologies that are being developed today so I actually believe we're going to be seeing a transformation of how where this money is going to go it's not going to go to all this stuff that maybe provided us good utility to get food quicker or find a taxi sooner but I actually believe it's going to be much more in hard science and it's going to require a lot more technical understanding I actually believe most of the companies are not going to be around I still believe that I do believe because because they're now real they're frauds they're what well I mean let's think about FTX I mean you can look back now FTX created its failure was it's creating its own token it was not a defy it wasn't it wasn't a you know a ledger that was open to the world it was an extreme right it was not distributed so the whole Foundation of what crypto is it's supposed to be distributed Ledger that is across the system I actually believe this technology is going to be very important I am I you know look at it we have been part of the huge revolution in investing through ETFs we believe that ETFs will be changing the whole way we invest many people still use it as a means well people are investing it for indexing no they're the majority of people were putting money in an index in an ETFs or active investors that are buying exposure the entire bond market is being transformed as we talk right now I believe the Next Generation for markets the Next Generation for Securities will be will be tokenization of securities um we will and if we can have that distributed Ledger that we know every beneficial owner every beneficial seller we all have our our code of who's buying who's selling instantaneous settlement and think about it changes the whole ecosystem you don't need Trust Banks I think they were I don't know if there was a real custodian in that closed Ledger but that's a whole other story uh you should ask them that question um uh no I I mean the transformation think about instantaneous settlement bonds and stocks no middlemen we're going to bring down fees even more dramatically as for me I don't have to vote on any shares anymore because a beneficial owner will do all the voting they'll have
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