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what's up everyone this is Dan French this is wealthy tment and thank you guys for tuning in to my channel if you guys don't know what this channel is about it's about entrepreneurs financing and also Hot Topic or articles that have come out that I want to discuss and uh a lot of topics that's out there in the news that people have interest in I also want to bring up everybody out there that's subscribed we had a lot of influx of subscribers uh recently and I want to appreciate I appreciate everybody out there that's helped the channel grow all the comments please help the channel keep down that road of growing I appreciate every one of you now I do a lot of research and I look for different topics and things that people have or might have interest in that I have interest in as well that I want to talk about and uh obviously one of the topics that keeps coming across my desk is a economic crash or a stock market crash so I want to discuss that today because there's a lot of people out there you know that talk about out crashes and economic crashes and it's about to happen and go invest into gold and uh get your survival kit out and we're going to get this going you know mik what is his name Peter schift and also Robert kosaki they discuss a lot about when this or market crash is going to happen and it's imminent on this happening also I came across this article about a person that is uh has high interest I had high interest in because of his prediction of the 28 2008 market crash crash uh the housing market crash his name is Michael buy and uh if you guys don't know who he is it's Dr bur looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent I start to sell my position it's 1.3 billion sure a hope so he came out and he basically predicted that um you know the market was going to crash he put his money you know into uh predicting that there was going to be a financial crisis crisis a lot of it was because of bad loans written for a subprime mortgage right there was a lot of investors and a lot of banks that were holding a lot of uh subprime loans and uh they were going to collapse a lot of it was because of the investors pulling out trillions of dollars at one point and the Federal Reserve had to come in and stop that from happening and so when you look at his situation he made a hundred million off of that investment and uh he's now I looked at some I did you know what is Michael Buy's net worth 300 million I saw and then there was another website that said he was worth 1.2 billion and what's interesting is he came out and he was putting in this article uh or he talked about this what he's going to plan to do here Michael buy The Big Short investor who became famous for correctly predicting the Epic collapse of the housing market in 2008 has bet more than 1.6 billion on a Wall Street Crash Buy's fund Scion Asset Management bought 866 million in put options that's the right to sell an asset at a particular price against a fund that tracks the S&P 500 and 739 million in put options against the fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 buy is using more than 90% of the portfolio of his portfolio to bet on a market downturn according to the filings so he's all in he's actually predicted that this crash could happen this stock market crash could happen in December which is right now and um he's putting 90% of his portfolio predicting this and so again it comes down to you have a lot of investors out there people that are watching stock markets and saying this is going to crash or there's going to be a collapse at some point now there's also a lot of investors uh you know talking about recession they get that that question asked a lot do you think we're going to go into a recession you know the Warren buffets and the black rocks the blackstones these these big corporations um they they get this question asked this is what what uh we talk about when we think about a recession and a lot of people were saying it was going to happen in 2023 so prepare for the US Global recession in 2023 the debt is just not sustainable so we have a financial crisis looming here in the US and you look at the stock market it was supposed to crash in 2023 and the dollar is in a bubble the Federal Reserve is printing money and also you're looking at China China's Holdings on the dollar we're at a trade War at a war as far as Financial power who's the global power between us and China and you look at our relationship with China they don't want to sell our debt because we're all connected the US debt is now $33 trillion and Counting and uh it's clearly likely to happen that people are going to focus on buying gold and silver and potentially you know looking to buy Bitcoin as a result of where the financial crisis is at today so you can see that there's a lot of speculation and talk about how this recession could lead to an economic crash and this has been brought up a lot uh we also had Warren Buffett ask that question during an interview and I want to bring up what he had to say about it but you think a recession is more likely now than maybe you would have said six months ago well I think most of our manager would said would say that they are surprised at where they are now compared to how they thought they were going to feel 6 months ago at this point in a lot of businesses but not in the insurance business you know and and uh uh but I think the people the railroad are are somewhat surprised that car loadings aren't a little higher rather than a little lower you know somewhat lower but most of the stuff we carry is is essential but but it reflects what's happening and and of course supply lines were so disrupted and everything a year or two ago that uh uh you know no economic figures are pure but I will I'm just telling you my impression and I look at the numbers every day I mean I can I look in terms of the potential for a credit crunch coming through what the banks are going through right now there's been a lot of speculation about what that could mean to the economy is it going to mean a 0.5% hit to GDP is it going to mean a 1% hit to GDP what would you guess I would say that I've been in business running Berkshire for 58 years and I've never found an economic forecast of any use to the company and and all we have to do is keep running every business as well as we can and we got to keep plenty of cash on hand so that people can keep making intelligence decisions rather than those forced upon them and that's all we know how to do and if I depended in my life on economic forecast you know I don't think we could make any money I don't know how to do it and and you know people want to get them so they get him but but uh so you could see what he had to say right um he basically came out and stated that uh economic forecasts it's hard to predict if there's going to be a market crash but if you follow that route uh I think it's a lot of negative energy but you're not going to ever have any production because you can't just sit there and think that okay the Market's going to crash we need to make adjustments you got to continue to run your business accordingly and just kind of put some uh shield on as far as you know you don't want to think that it's not going to ever happen cuz it could happen but I'm here to say it's the likelihood of it happening is not there at least at this time and what he's saying is just kind of keep moving forward you can't just you know stop or uh have some type of setback or feel like hey you know what I think things are going to start to slow down or I'm starting to see signs maybe we should stop doing our you know running our business he runs his business the way it should be which is you keep going and you keep trying to grow and becoming bigger and better than what you were now I also want to bring up the confidence in people today and what would create a market crash so I I agree with him in the sense that um with what he had to say now for me I'm looking at it going okay this Market what are the key factors that would actually present um an economic crash right uh some of the key factors are people losing confidence in an economy well that's not happening here right our the US economy is very strong as far as confidence goes we hit uh uh in 2018 a 19 it was like a 19-year high on consumer confidence or just confidence in the economy investors also are very confident in this market or in markets here in the US you know for them to get repaid on their Investments it's very high even though we know that debt is it's high you know it's it's alarming it's something we have to consider yet investors still feel confident they're getting repaid we are a debt-based society and we've seen these numbers consistently go up and so we get it you know is it something to pay attention to as far as the debt goes yes but are there signs that that says investors just don't feel that they're not going to get their money back and they're going to get repaid no there's not then you go back to China China has a lot of our debt they hold a lot a lot of our debt and globalization is here we're all intertwined economically so China or Japan especially China is not going to just pull all their dollars and say okay we want we want you to pay back your debt because ultimately that would collapse us as an economy but it would also collapse them and it would collapse other economies that are on a debt based society like us that hold our our debt so that's like the likelihood of that happening is is just not there also I want to bring up the dollar the dollar declined 58% from 2002 to 2008 and we're still fine I mean the dollar now is very strong but we've seen a weak dollar before that would probably happen before a fullon economic collapse now let's talk about unemployment right unemployment is very low right now I think we're close to 4% but did you guys know that in 2008 we were close to 15% unemployment and if you look at the Great Depression the Great Depression was at 25% unemployment people have confidence in the economy they're going to continue to go work they're going to they've been we see it it's showing right so there's confidence and that's probably the biggest attribute of why an economy keeps thriving is because the confidence in the investors confidence in the in the average American in this case are in in the markets they're going to work they're paying their bills yes we' seen inflation hyperinflation is a concern but with the FED pulling in the fed's fund rate increasing it now they're saying they're going to drop it in 2024 probably Midway in 2024 they're probably going to be able to do that so you got to think that these things are important now the other thing I want to bring up what investors are doing with the S&P 500 and also uh with what's going on with GDP which is the health of an economy so when you look at this these uh I want to give you these charts here really quick you the GDP is up S&P 500 is up that's you know you that's a big reason of why uh the economy is doing well you have investors like Black Rock here and you know Warren Buffett and people that these are Big stock market investors people that hold a lot of weight here corporations George Soros which is a very uh controversial person also Black Stone These Guys these these guys represent these Cor corporations and these corporations are the ones really driving the markets if they have confidence they have a lot of money into these into you know into these uh Investments they're the ones that's going to really pull the strings and make make things turn you know so you got to think that if they're still investing and they're still having their money in the US economy and investments in the economy then they have confidence here and I think that's a big thing um so when you go back and let's talk about some of the things that I remember back in 2007 and 8 back in 2008 when Michael buy you know predicted this um nobody had a crystal ball nobody still has a crystal ball when this is going to crash I told you there's a lot of gurus out there you got the the M the Peter schiffs and the the uh you know Robert kosaki thinking that there's going to be some type of Crash and there could be I just don't see it happening anytime soon but you have to think that you know with all the data that's out there I remember people that were like oh I'm never going to buy a house after the crash happened right and I'm like why would you not buy a house you could buy a Pennies on the dollar uh they just had no confidence at that point but guess who had confidence the investors big investors came in and bought large amounts of properties and were you know renting them out they stored their money there they obviously pumped money back into the into the economy and and ultimately made a lot of money off that you know I had used to do a radio show and people used to call in man we're going to collapse and you know uh stock market's going to collapse and you know what it could the stock market could collapse but what we've seen from history is that these markets always recover it doesn't come to just a complete collapse you know a lot of people want to turn to Gold and Silver and there's nothing wrong with that Bitcoin Safe Haven um you know I get it they're Alternatives but the dollar is still here and it's still primarily used and until that goes away until something changes with all the data and all the information that I'm seeing I don't feel like there's going to be a crash or even a stock market crash economic crash anything uh just because of the confidence and that's the number one thing in the US economy and how we're globalized now as an economy everybody's connected to the US if you guys have any questions please leave any comments again uh I would love to answer any uh you know comments that you have any questions you have subscribe to the channel and appreciate your guys' time we'll see you guys at the next one I'm out of here
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