저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 미국 경기 확장이 이어지고 있지만 언제 둔화될지는 모르며, 침체 시 비트코인 등 암호화폐로 자금이 몰릴 수 있다는 견해. 경기 상황: 미국 경제는 약 3% 성장 중이며, 현 성장 사이클은 약 109개월로 역대 두 번째로 길다. 예전 서브프라임 모기지와 같은 촉발 요인은 아닐 것으로 보나, 원인은 신흥국 기업부채, 무역장벽·관세전쟁, 재정적자·국가부채 등 여러 가능성이 있다. 정책 전망: 재선 중심의 정치 구조 때문에 장기적 시각 없이 부채를 늘려 경기를 떠받치고 있으며, 감세법안 덕분에 침체가 최소 1년 이상 늦춰졌다고 본다. 신용경색이 결국 올 것이라는 전제다. 암호화폐 전망: 주식·채권·부동산이 하락하기 시작하면 자금이 암호화폐로 쏠릴 것이라 보며, 당분간(6개월~2년) 주식 시장의 큰 조정은 없을 수 있어 비트코인은 횡보할 수도 있다고 언급. 투자 조언: 암호화폐 단일 투자는 권하지 않고 주식·채권·원자재(석유, 귀금속) 등을 포함한 균형 포트폴리오를 권장. 비트코인은 하락 시 계속 매수·보유하는 전략이며, 2~3년 장기적으로 크게 오를 것이라고 주장. 리스크: 암호화폐가 당분간 부진하거나 평탄할 수 있다는 점을 스스로 인정. 침체 시점과 원인은 불확실.
다듬은 글
what are the animal spirits in the u.s. doing right now what are the animal spirits in the upper on the ridge well the animal spirits like yes are these first I think President Trump clearly had a victory in in Korea getting that meeting done whether you think he got everything he should have gotten out of the negotiations not I think he he had a victory in getting that completed in terms of the talks and we'll see what happens I think the animal spirits in Washington hour are thinking well president Trump has a lot of influence in a Republican Party mark Sanford apparently lost his re-election primary bid and I think that a lot of Republicans will say well I want to make sure that if I'm gonna be running for reelection I'm gonna be okay with the president because I don't want the president tweeting against me there's no doubt that the president has used the tweeting power quite effectively there's no tweeting power that's said to be in the Constitution and you wonder whether Thomas Jefferson or George Washington or James Madison if they had the power to tweet what their impact would have been we don't have the historic tweets of these great Americans or anybody before the recent era there's no doubt that President Trump has used as quite effectively from where we agree on the economic point of view are we under Esther I'm under estimating or overestimating the strengths of the US economy what are you you know if you look at economists and economist forecasts what are they getting wrong today I'm not sure they're getting anything wrong it's hard to know right now what they're getting wrong but I think this is the situation we are growing at close to three percent which is pretty good for an economy of our size the biggest concerns that people would have are the deficit and the debt or that they're growing and how much longer can we continue this we are about a hundred and nine months into a growth cycle we've only had one growth cycle longer than this so people would say at some point this is gonna slow down what's gonna cause it to slow down is it emerging market corporate debt is it trade barriers and tariff wars or is it maybe their growing concern about the deficit and debt nobody would knows for certain it's not likely to be subprime mortgages as it was before but whatever causes the next recession to occur it clearly is something that we can see in front of us now we just don't know which of the things I just mentioned are likely to cause it or maybe something we don't know may be a geopolitical factor at some point we will have a slowdown I just don't know when it will be I heard Stein the former head of the Council of Economic Advisers famously said if something can't keep going on forever eventually it won't so this this gross cycle has been terrific I don't know how much longer we'll stay I hope another year or two at least I think the recession has been pushed back because of the tax cut bill and the favorable economy for at least a year if not longer so that is very interesting information and I agree with him that they just keep loading up debt and keep pushing this can down another two years three years whatever because like I said the reelection and this may be a problem in US politics is you get reelected every four to six years so there is no benefit for thinking long term and loading up this debt to make the economy good now makes sense for anyone that's an incumbent if you want to continue to get elected but we're screwing ourselves and I do feel like once this recession hits that's when we're gonna get a lot of growth in the cryptocurrency market because once the stock market in the bond market and the real estate markets start to take a dive I can see a lot of money rushing in to crypto assets and I don't think it's gonna happen he's right I think that as long as they can keep loading up on this debt we're not gonna see that kind of correction for maybe another six months a year two years so kryptos could be a bad investment and could basically stay pretty flat but like I said I like to buy these dips because I know long-term in two three years the value of cryptos will be much much higher because this evaluations of companies and all this debt that government's not just the US but all over the world it's eventually gonna hit a credit crunch and when it does commodities like oil gas and now the digital commodities and that's why also I wouldn't just put all my money in crypto I highly recommend that you own a balanced portfolio and you have other commodities like oil or precious metals and obviously because there is it looks like it's gonna have some continued growth for the next year or two I would still have a position a stock market a bond market but eventually I would definitely want to change it and as crypto continues to dip I'm gonna just buy more and hold because I know long term when the markets to collapse the valley Krypto should go up but let me know what you guys think and I will talk to you guys soon
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