저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 핵심 지지 구간에서 반등해 4~6% 상승 중이며, 역헤드앤숄더 패턴과 CME 갭 충전, 유동성 레벨(약 71,000~72,000달러)을 근거로 상단 목표를 제시함. 그러나 상승 시 추가 매수보다 일부 익절과 숏 진입을 권고하며, 엘리엇 파동상 제2파동 조정 후 약 1,000달러 부근까지 하락 가능성을 주장함. 4시간·1시간 EMA 수렴으로 뚜렷한 추세 부재를 언급하고, 60,000달러 하회 가능성도 제시함.
다듬은 글
Welcome everyone. Bitcoin has just experienced a very interesting upward movement and all my buy orders are back in positive territory. Excited. I want to show you what's probably coming next because there are very important details that you ca n't overlook. The first thing you should notice is that Bitcoin hit our key price target with near-perfect accuracy.
Just a few days ago, during a live broadcast on the channel, I was talking specifically about this support zone that we had marked in advance. At that time, we explained that Bitcoin could receive another push downwards, touch our control point, which is precisely the zone where the greatest volume of all the price action is concentrated at the bottom, and from there look for an upward rotation, especially if the price managed to get back into our horizontal range and also managed to break the trend line that acted as resistance, and that is exactly what happened.
Bitcoin recovered its position within the range and right now we are seeing an upward movement of approximately between 4 and 6%. Later in this video, I'm going to show you our next higher price targets, where we'll not only be locking in more profits on our long trades, but I'm also very interested in opening a new short position.
Now, at this moment most people who are following this price movement are probably looking at a specific pattern. This is a bullish pattern known as an inverted head and shoulders . We can clearly identify the left shoulder in this area, the head here in the center, and right now Bitcoin could be forming the right shoulder.
Those who detect this pattern will surely want to open a buy position right at the breakout of this area. However, in my personal opinion, buying at that breaking point is not the smartest decision. Because? Because the correct strategy is always to buy low, something we did exactly at the lowest levels.
When the price is already rising, it makes sense to take profits on the long positions you already have open or even consider opening a sell position. It doesn't make much sense to open a new purchase when we are already at high levels. If you watched yesterday's video, you already know why this current area is so relevant.
We said that the first objective would be to fill the CME gap if the price rose to approximately $70,200. We are now clearly above that level. We also talked about four different levels of liquidity. The first one at $71,000, the second one a little higher. Then another intermediate level and finally a very important one around $72,000.
That highest level of liquidity has not yet been reached, but I believe it could literally be reached in the next few hours. If the price rises a little more from there, the next major target would be the resistance zone on the weekly timeframe, located near 72,800. This zone is not random, because if we apply the Fibonacci retracement from the high to the low of the last swing, the golden level of 61.8 % falls exactly on that weekly resistance.
That specific area, along with the liquidity level I mentioned, will be my next profit-taking point in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. That's why I ask that if this analysis is helpful to you, please like the video because reaching 1000 likes helps me a lot. And thank you also for subscribing to the channel.
Now, let me share with you the bearish scenario that I 'm watching, which is also one of the reasons why in this upward movement I'm only looking to open a sell position. It all has to do with the bearish Elliott wave count we 're seeing on the one-hour timeframe. I'm going to clean up the chart to explain it clearly.
I talked about this specific count in a few videos . The idea is that Bitcoin may have formed the first impulsive wave and that right now, with all this upward movement, we could be completing the second corrective wave. Once that second wave ends, we would have to prepare for another significant drop with the third, fourth, and fifth waves.
What would be the objective of that second wave? It appears that the recent movement could be forming a classic ABC-type correction . We have wave A followed by wave B and now we would be completing wave C, which is the last part of this larger corrective structure. In this scenario, the minimum target would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the first wave, giving us a target price of approximately $72,373 for the end of the second wave.
If the price rises above the recent high and absorbs that liquidity, the second wave may have already ended. But ideally we would see at least that 50% retracement reached or even reach the weekly level we already mentioned. When that happens, I'm going to look to open a sell order with a very clear invalidation above the recent high.
If Bitcoin surpasses that high, the bearish count is invalidated. But until that happens, when the price hits those levels, you should be careful with your buy positions and consider locking in at least a portion of your profits in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or whatever cryptocurrency you're holding. Because if the price starts to be rejected from that area, the bearish targets would be very deep.
What would be the objective of that third wave? If we take the Fibonacci extensions of the first impulse and place the third point at the end of the second wave with the 1.618 extension level, the approximate target would be the $1,000 zone. Although it will vary depending on the exact ceiling that the price reaches, the potential drop is very significant.
This means that the risk-benefit ratio for a sales transaction from that area would be excellent. Adjusted invalidation above the maximum and a fairly deep down target. There is another important point. Right now, Bitcoin is already trading in a relevant resistance zone. If we apply the fixed range volume profile over the entire price action at the bottom, we can clearly see that the price is touching the high value area, which is the top of the volume resistance.
We are seeing some reaction in this area, although ideally we would like to see the price rise a little more to at least reach the 50% Fibonacci level before considering a sell. Let's talk now about exponential moving averages . If we review the one-hour, two-hour, and four-hour timeframes using the 50 and 200-period EMAs, we see that in all of them, both averages are very close together.
This indicates that Bitcoin is neither in a defined upward trend nor in a clear downward trend. If the price goes up, we'll probably see a bullish crossover across all those timeframes, but that crossover alone isn't going to make me change my market outlook to bullish, because the last time we had a bullish crossover on the 4- hour chart, Bitcoin hit a local high and then fell sharply.
A significant resistance level lies ahead, so caution is advised when making new purchases or attempting to trade a breakout from the head and shoulders pattern. As for the nearest local support, in case the price does not continue to rise, the first level I am monitoring is the Bway, anchored from the recent low.
That level practically coincides with the area where there is liquidity from the previous movement and also right at $0.000 another level of liquidity was formed. That combined zone would be the first relevant local support. However, even if that support is touched, I would prefer to see Bitcoin bounce back upwards, because the 50% Fibonacci level and the liquidity level we mentioned are still not reached.
We want all our long positions to generate the highest possible profit. before closing them. And when we're trading near those important targets, the only trade that will interest me is a sell with clear invalidation above the recent high, targeting levels potentially below $60,000. Thank you for being here and for supporting the channel with your like. M.
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